Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GB54

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GB54    
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:18 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     22 observations of     22
# Arc:   1.31y
# First observation: 2015/03/18
#  Last observation: 2016/07/07
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000478   0.154773   0.000021  -0.000690   0.078737   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     5.15 DOF:     38 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.20    0.16
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  3.112336E-05  1.523518E-01 -1.732868E-07 -6.810398E-04  7.860229E-02 -3.285236E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  3.4888E-13  2.2206E-12  4.0420E-15 -2.0657E-14  9.4937E-13  1.6604E-11
  2.2206E-12  3.5105E-11  5.7410E-14 -3.1314E-13  1.2831E-11  2.4513E-10
  4.0420E-15  5.7410E-14  1.4625E-13 -1.5011E-13  2.1399E-14  4.0384E-13
 -2.0657E-14 -3.1314E-13 -1.5011E-13  2.8196E-13 -1.1417E-13 -2.2054E-12
  9.4937E-13  1.2831E-11  2.1399E-14 -1.1417E-13  4.8671E-12  9.0168E-11
  1.6604E-11  2.4513E-10  4.0384E-13 -2.2054E-12  9.0168E-11  1.7256E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.723352 -153.371067    0.483653    0.026172   -0.865906  2457100.080018
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457100.5000  =  2015/03/19
Mean Anomaly:          340.37639 +/-     0.012
Argument of Peri:      147.42345 +/-     0.035
Long of Asc Node:      106.63124 +/-     0.007
Inclination:             1.62791 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.42263068 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     21.10366718 +/-    0.0059
Time of Perihelion: 2459030.7422 +/-       0.9
Perihelion:          12.18461007 +/-    0.0064
Aphelion:            30.02272428 +/-    0.0100
Period (y)               96.9494 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -12.36179101 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           -5.65553289 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z            0.38262798 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00339691 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00423722 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00005804 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   13.59946078 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     12.72227492 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef: 12.83

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GB54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GB54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 03  18.57924  13 41 19.986  -08 39 45.30  24.1r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 03  18.62665  13 41 19.519  -08 39 42.56  24.2r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 03  20.58351  13 41 00.123  -08 37 43.86  24.1r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  13.37381  13 36 28.921  -08 10 53.85  23.3r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  13.41479  13 36 28.415  -08 10 50.80  24.1r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  13.51735  13 36 27.136  -08 10 43.59  23.8r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  19.41451  13 35 15.059  -08 03 47.55  23.8r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  19.54875  13 35 13.362  -08 03 38.25  24.1r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 06  20.27906  13 26 36.952  -07 18 16.90  24.2r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 06  20.31989  13 26 36.865  -07 18 16.70  24.2r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 06  22.32371  13 26 33.449  -07 18 12.29  24.2r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 07  14.27603  13 27 06.128  -07 24 24.01  24.9r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2015 07  15.27079  13 27 10.653  -07 24 59.07  24.1r 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 02  04.64352  14 17 44.018  -12 05 19.28  24.3w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 02  11.62203  14 17 59.036  -12 05 45.91  24.5w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 03  11.62924  14 16 29.947  -11 55 04.55  24.2w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 03  12.50184  14 16 23.804  -11 54 28.33  24.2w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 04  03.49791  14 12 56.147  -11 35 09.87  24.2w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 04  09.47907  14 11 46.336  -11 28 54.62  24.4w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 06  27.35079  13 59 09.261  -10 27 06.65  24.6w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 06  28.26784  13 59 07.402  -10 27 04.06  24.8w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      
2016 07  07.34021  13 59 01.380  -10 27 46.67  24.3w 15GB54    568  C~2ji7      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.01
     2   0.0001     -7.45     0.03       0.07    -0.06
     3   0.0055   -318.53     0.01       7.33    -0.07
     4   0.0706  -4653.49     0.09      54.85    -0.06
     5   0.0707  -4661.60     0.10      54.97     0.12
     6   0.0710  -4681.92     0.12      54.80     0.06
     7   0.0872  -5831.00     0.16      54.02     0.09
     8   0.0875  -5857.88    -0.12      53.52    -0.16
     9   0.2565 -14017.85    -0.02    -221.29    -0.01
    10   0.2566 -14019.13     0.02    -221.58     0.04
    11   0.2621 -14068.24    -0.02    -236.22     0.02
    12   0.3222 -13476.81    -0.11    -403.36     0.11
    13   0.3250 -13401.01    -0.20    -411.22    -0.08
    14   0.8845  34821.72    -0.07    -390.01     0.06
    15   0.9036  35044.51    -0.01    -341.19     0.06
    16   0.9830  33558.38    -0.10    -169.61     0.00
    17   0.9854  33458.74    -0.06    -165.53    -0.06
    18   1.0456  30119.68    -0.04     -96.30     0.01
    19   1.0620  29004.77     0.15     -89.12    -0.02
    20   1.2780  17110.84     0.11    -429.25     0.02
    21   1.2805  17084.05     0.13    -436.38    -0.09
    22   1.3053  17015.11    -0.10    -507.45     0.03

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GB54    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        20.939    20.967    20.911
ecceobj         0.418     0.418     0.418
incobj          1.628     1.628     1.628
qmin           12.089    12.183    12.101
qmax           29.691    29.732    29.698
amean          20.783    20.839    20.746
amin           20.496    20.711    20.461
amax           21.051    20.967    20.959
emean           0.410     0.415     0.413
emin            0.400     0.412     0.408
emax            0.419     0.418     0.418
imean           0.179     0.048     0.224
imin            0.056     0.040     0.056
imax            0.493     0.056     0.383
excite_mean     0.410     0.415     0.413
fracstop        0.001     0.000     0.000
cjmean          2.964     2.957     2.964

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       150.0     149.0     155.2
kozaiamp          5.2       1.3       6.1