The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FZ498
# Created Wed May 21 01:10:25 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 21 observations of 21
# Arc: 10.87d
# First observation: 2015/03/18
# Last observation: 2015/03/29
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
0.000000 0.026607 -0.000001 0.000030 0.021784 0.000000
# WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution
# WARNING Fitting with energy constraint
# WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 17 iterations -- oscilliatory solution
# WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution
# Chi-squared of fit: 14.67 DOF: 37 RMS: 0.15
# Min/Max residuals: -0.30 0.26
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.365844E-05 1.696263E-02 -7.165826E-07 2.632843E-05 2.025536E-02 6.827747E-03
# Covariance matrix:
2.6029E-10 3.3605E-07 -1.6442E-12 1.1971E-10 5.3129E-08 -5.4281E-07
3.3605E-07 4.3418E-04 -2.1243E-09 1.5466E-07 6.8640E-05 -7.0272E-04
-1.6442E-12 -2.1243E-09 1.7282E-13 -7.8263E-12 -3.3583E-10 3.4372E-09
1.1971E-10 1.5466E-07 -7.8263E-12 5.9563E-10 2.4450E-08 -2.5031E-07
5.3129E-08 6.8640E-05 -3.3583E-10 2.4450E-08 1.0852E-05 -1.1104E-04
-5.4281E-07 -7.0272E-04 3.4372E-09 -2.5031E-07 -1.1104E-04 1.2522E-03
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
1.239012 -179.214204 0.059178 0.021542 -0.990156 2457099.992668
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457090.5000 = 2015/03/09
Mean Anomaly: 61.71599 +/- 79.478
Argument of Peri: 339.82151 +/- 205.960
Long of Asc Node: 95.43854 +/- 7.650
Inclination: 1.21868 +/- 0.017
Eccentricity: 0.37508498 +/- 2.0097
Semi-Major Axis: 52.74869082 +/- 25.8802
Time of Perihelion: 2433101.5542 +/- 25351.2
Perihelion: 32.96344930 +/- 107.2347
Aphelion: 72.53393234 +/- 111.8221
Period (y) 383.1120 +/- 281.95
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -50.34770016 +/- 8.0265
Ecliptic Y -0.63156238 +/- 0.1094
Ecliptic Z 1.06751022 +/- 0.1736
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00089448 +/- 0.0050
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00231099 +/- 0.0024
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00002360 +/- 0.0001
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 50.36297609 +/- 8.0240
Geocenter to KBO 49.36966028 +/- 8.0291
# Hcoef: 7.56
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FZ498. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FZ498) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 18.49189 12 04 51.31 +00 49 27.2 24.9r 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 18.49478 12 04 51.31 +00 49 27.2 24.7r 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 18.50772 12 04 51.24 +00 49 27.5 24.5r 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 18.55140 12 04 51.08 +00 49 28.5 24.3r 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 18.57737 12 04 50.98 +00 49 29.0 24.3r 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 20.44069 12 04 43.87 +00 50 15.6 23.9i 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 20.44426 12 04 43.87 +00 50 15.7 24.1i 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 20.47725 12 04 43.72 +00 50 16.6 24.0i 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 20.49965 12 04 43.63 +00 50 17.2 23.9i 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 20.55748 12 04 43.43 +00 50 18.4 23.9i 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 25.46918 12 04 24.63 +00 52 20.6 25.2g 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 25.47205 12 04 24.63 +00 52 20.6 25.3g 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 25.48492 12 04 24.56 +00 52 20.9 25.4g 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 25.49781 12 04 24.54 +00 52 21.6 25.5g 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 25.52811 12 04 24.40 +00 52 22.3 25.4g 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 25.55400 12 04 24.31 +00 52 22.9 25.3g 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 29.28273 12 04 10.14 +00 53 54.3 23.3y 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 29.29637 12 04 10.09 +00 53 55.2 24.2y 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 29.32352 12 04 09.98 +00 53 55.9 23.9y 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 29.34265 12 04 09.90 +00 53 55.9 23.9y 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a 2015 03 29.35897 12 04 09.85 +00 53 56.7 24.3y 15FZ498 T09 C~8r6a
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.15
2 0.0000 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.15
3 0.0000 -1.08 -0.17 -0.14 0.01
4 0.0002 -3.68 -0.00 -0.18 -0.01
5 0.0002 -5.26 0.06 -0.32 -0.15
6 0.0053 -121.63 0.02 0.02 -0.05
7 0.0053 -121.67 0.21 0.11 0.05
8 0.0054 -124.09 -0.12 0.04 -0.01
9 0.0055 -125.57 -0.17 0.05 0.01
10 0.0057 -128.80 0.26 -0.04 -0.07
11 0.0191 -436.11 -0.06 -0.08 -0.17
12 0.0191 -436.11 0.12 -0.08 -0.16
13 0.0191 -437.19 -0.15 -0.22 -0.30
14 0.0192 -437.75 0.11 0.30 0.23
15 0.0193 -439.95 -0.18 0.11 0.05
16 0.0193 -441.43 -0.02 0.12 0.07
17 0.0295 -672.78 0.18 -0.55 -0.29
18 0.0296 -673.82 -0.01 -0.02 0.24
19 0.0297 -675.61 -0.10 -0.03 0.24
20 0.0297 -676.71 -0.00 -0.51 -0.22
21 0.0298 -677.72 0.02 -0.08 0.22
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15FZ498 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0