The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FW561 # Created Thu Jul 3 01:10:29 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 18 observations of 18 # Arc: 63.88d # First observation: 2015/03/18 # Last observation: 2015/05/21 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000002 0.029575 0.000001 -0.000518 0.025101 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.40 DOF: 30 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.17 0.21 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.497638E-05 2.354208E-02 5.152800E-07 -4.963324E-04 2.418029E-02 1.370647E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.9521E-13 2.6447E-11 1.0238E-15 -1.5228E-13 6.8574E-12 4.2458E-10 2.6447E-11 1.5074E-07 3.5930E-12 -5.0319E-10 2.1688E-08 -2.2581E-06 1.0238E-15 3.5930E-12 1.6050E-13 -1.0101E-12 5.2526E-13 -5.1445E-11 -1.5228E-13 -5.0319E-10 -1.0101E-12 1.4489E-11 -7.3761E-11 7.1476E-09 6.8574E-12 2.1688E-08 5.2526E-13 -7.3761E-11 3.1857E-09 -3.0617E-07 4.2458E-10 -2.2581E-06 -5.1445E-11 7.1476E-09 -3.0617E-07 3.9208E-05 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.428233 177.574218 0.003704 -0.007288 -0.992122 2457099.986728 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457090.5000 = 2015/03/09 Mean Anomaly: 63.24554 +/- 73.652 Argument of Peri: 129.07030 +/- 103.584 Long of Asc Node: 338.41163 +/- 0.310 Inclination: 1.27388 +/- 0.020 Eccentricity: 0.06432171 +/- 0.2459 Semi-Major Axis: 43.45864782 +/- 0.5310 Time of Perihelion: 2438706.4950 +/- 21406.3 Perihelion: 40.66331331 +/- 10.6983 Aphelion: 46.25398234 +/- 10.7017 Period (y) 286.4986 +/- 5.25 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -42.31204230 +/- 0.0964 Ecliptic Y 1.79586271 +/- 0.0041 Ecliptic Z -0.30905672 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00027087 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00266242 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00005727 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 42.35126401 +/- 0.0964 Geocenter to KBO 41.35600241 +/- 0.0965 # Hcoef: 8.31
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FW561. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FW561) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 18.48595 11 50 24.95 +00 34 18.2 24.2r 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 18.51429 11 50 24.82 +00 34 19.2 24.3r 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 18.57308 11 50 24.56 +00 34 20.9 24.6r 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 20.43366 11 50 16.24 +00 35 14.3 24.0i 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 20.50792 11 50 15.91 +00 35 16.3 24.0i 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 20.51347 11 50 15.89 +00 35 16.7 23.9i 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 20.54920 11 50 15.73 +00 35 17.7 24.2i 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 25.46334 11 49 53.87 +00 37 38.3 25.0g 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 25.49141 11 49 53.75 +00 37 39.3 25.5g 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 25.52174 11 49 53.61 +00 37 40.0 25.0g 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 05 17.32615 11 46 52.35 +00 57 19.6 25.2g 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 05 17.32827 11 46 52.34 +00 57 19.6 25.7g 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 05 17.33463 11 46 52.33 +00 57 19.6 25.2g 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 05 17.34098 11 46 52.33 +00 57 19.6 25.1g 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 05 21.31069 11 46 45.54 +00 58 04.8 24.3i 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 05 21.31877 11 46 45.54 +00 58 05.0 24.5i 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 05 21.35689 11 46 45.47 +00 58 05.3 24.1i 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 05 21.36765 11 46 45.45 +00 58 05.6 24.0i 15FW561 T09 C~8vFX
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.17
2 0.0001 -2.19 -0.00 0.14 -0.01
3 0.0002 -6.44 0.08 0.15 0.04
4 0.0053 -142.18 -0.17 -0.44 -0.08
5 0.0055 -147.52 -0.02 -0.58 -0.15
6 0.0056 -147.95 -0.04 -0.33 0.10
7 0.0056 -150.55 -0.00 -0.36 0.09
8 0.0191 -507.30 0.01 -1.65 -0.02
9 0.0192 -509.35 0.02 -1.45 0.21
10 0.0193 -511.56 0.04 -1.64 0.03
11 0.1638 -3475.40 -0.03 0.62 0.04
12 0.1638 -3475.54 -0.10 0.56 -0.02
13 0.1639 -3475.68 -0.04 0.50 -0.07
14 0.1639 -3475.68 0.16 0.50 -0.07
15 0.1747 -3587.12 -0.03 1.52 -0.09
16 0.1748 -3587.20 0.10 1.71 0.10
17 0.1749 -3588.29 0.03 1.57 -0.04
18 0.1749 -3588.68 -0.08 1.72 0.12
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.