Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15FW403

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15FW403   
# Created Sat Nov 27 02:13:21 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     12 observations of     12
# Arc:   0.98y
# First observation: 2015/03/17
#  Last observation: 2016/03/09
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000035   0.012458  -0.000001   0.009687   0.019319   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    26.92 DOF:     18 RMS:  0.26
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.41    0.55
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.106285E-05  1.240763E-02  9.856768E-06  9.692521E-03  1.944496E-02 -7.568579E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  4.4411E-13  8.3089E-13 -6.9190E-14  9.4411E-13  9.2151E-13  9.6104E-11
  8.3089E-13  2.5731E-11 -1.4682E-12  1.8395E-11  1.2012E-11  1.8814E-09
 -6.9190E-14 -1.4682E-12  2.8246E-13 -1.3797E-12 -7.2152E-13 -1.1231E-10
  9.4411E-13  1.8395E-11 -1.3797E-12  1.4903E-11  9.1868E-12  1.4114E-09
  9.2151E-13  1.2012E-11 -7.2152E-13  9.1868E-12  6.5800E-12  9.3872E-10
  9.6104E-11  1.8814E-09 -1.1231E-10  1.4114E-09  9.3872E-10  1.4433E-07
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   11.973618 -161.656776    0.370737    0.190985   -0.899947  2457099.019198
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457090.5000  =  2015/03/09
Mean Anomaly:          205.74548 +/-     8.105
Argument of Peri:      178.83663 +/-     8.126
Long of Asc Node:      183.29999 +/-     0.002
Inclination:            39.51147 +/-     0.004
Eccentricity:         0.13749134 +/-    0.0078
Semi-Major Axis:     46.44207866 +/-    0.0709
Time of Perihelion: 2506624.2594 +/-    2600.1
Perihelion:          40.05669489 +/-    0.3659
Aphelion:            52.82746244 +/-    0.3697
Period (y)              316.5014 +/-      0.72
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -48.74483010 +/-    0.0063
Ecliptic Y          -15.77015788 +/-    0.0021
Ecliptic Z           10.66966926 +/-    0.0014
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00091406 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00154208 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00131300 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   52.33161743 +/-    0.0059
Geocenter to KBO     51.42721017 +/-    0.0068
# Hcoef:  7.74

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FW403. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FW403) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 03  17.51842  13 25 50.002  +03 53 32.38  24.8r 15FW403   568  C~2Zrj      
2015 03  17.57469  13 25 49.814  +03 53 34.30        15FW403   568  C~2Zrj      
2015 03  17.63201  13 25 49.631  +03 53 36.06        15FW403   568  C~2Zrj      
2015 04  18.20572  13 23 56.882  +04 09 13.15        15FW403   304  C~2Zrj      
2015 04  18.25848  13 23 56.692  +04 09 14.36  24.9r 15FW403   304  C~2Zrj      
2015 04  19.30350  13 23 52.832  +04 09 41.77        15FW403   304  C~2Zrj      
2015 05  23.06998  13 22 01.060  +04 20 38.52        15FW403   304  C~2Zrj      
2015 05  23.12033  13 22 00.930  +04 20 39.12        15FW403   304  C~2Zrj      
2015 06  16.02262  13 21 11.082  +04 23 11.25  24.9r 15FW403   I11  C~2Zrj      
2015 06  16.15496  13 21 10.887  +04 23 11.42        15FW403   I11  C~2Zrj      
2016 03  08.34796  13 29 45.251  +04 03 39.94        15FW403   304  C~2Zrj      
2016 03  09.34884  13 29 42.338  +04 04 12.22        15FW403   304  C~2Zrj      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.41
     2   0.0002     -3.33    -0.28       0.71    -0.30
     3   0.0003     -6.53    -0.17       1.31    -0.32
     4   0.0868  -1922.75     0.38     230.81     0.12
     5   0.0869  -1925.84     0.55     230.85     0.00
     6   0.0898  -1989.66     0.36     234.41     0.18
     7   0.1822  -3786.20    -0.27     211.20     0.09
     8   0.1823  -3788.23    -0.12     211.02     0.14
     9   0.2478  -4536.40    -0.09      70.66     0.34
    10   0.2481  -4539.16    -0.20      69.72     0.41
    11   0.9769   3027.69     0.19    1896.54    -0.21
    12   0.9797   2975.10    -0.16    1909.86    -0.05

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15FW403    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        46.140    46.481    46.074
ecceobj         0.145     0.176     0.137
incobj         39.725    39.735    39.724
qmin           38.750    37.555    39.102
qmax           54.359    56.295    53.860
amean          46.378    46.728    46.310
amin           46.003    46.345    45.935
amax           46.799    47.185    46.717
emean           0.147     0.178     0.139
emin            0.134     0.164     0.126
emax            0.162     0.194     0.153
imean          39.238    39.244    39.241
imin           38.967    38.936    38.999
imax           39.509    39.513    39.518
excite_mean     0.649     0.657     0.648
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.552     2.544     2.553

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       186.6     183.9     188.4
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     179.9