The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FS561
# Created Thu Jul 3 01:10:29 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 16 observations of 16
# Arc: 10.89d
# First observation: 2015/03/18
# Last observation: 2015/03/29
# WARNING Fitting with energy constraint
# WARNING and with gdot fixed = 0
# WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution
# Chi-squared of fit: 7.19 DOF: 28 RMS: 0.12
# Min/Max residuals: -0.23 0.36
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.518209E-05 2.208509E-02 -2.348650E-07 -3.841566E-06 2.341834E-02 0.000000E+00
# Covariance matrix:
2.9166E-11 4.2605E-08 -1.5155E-13 -2.9077E-12 6.7703E-09 0.0000E+00
4.2605E-08 6.2747E-05 -2.2315E-10 -4.2813E-09 9.9688E-06 0.0000E+00
-1.5155E-13 -2.2315E-10 2.2506E-13 -9.5810E-12 -3.5453E-11 0.0000E+00
-2.9077E-12 -4.2813E-09 -9.5810E-12 6.9551E-10 -6.8019E-10 0.0000E+00
6.7703E-09 9.9688E-06 -3.5453E-11 -6.8019E-10 1.5838E-06 0.0000E+00
0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 1.6900E-04
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
0.947205 -178.064019 0.079406 0.016477 -0.988833 2457099.972028
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457090.5000 = 2015/03/09
Mean Anomaly: 182.11339 +/- 62.437
Argument of Peri: 268.37146 +/- 58.881
Long of Asc Node: 91.36209 +/- 4.298
Inclination: 0.92574 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.01131653 +/- 0.5498
Semi-Major Axis: 43.20500079 +/- 21.2164
Time of Perihelion: 2508345.9699 +/- 846980.0
Perihelion: 42.71607003 +/- 31.6910
Aphelion: 43.69393155 +/- 32.0109
Period (y) 283.9940 +/- 209.19
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -43.66556333 +/- 2.2931
Ecliptic Y -1.39664550 +/- 0.0773
Ecliptic Z 0.70590945 +/- 0.0379
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00008380 +/- 0.0015
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00258628 +/- 0.0008
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00000036 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 43.69359619 +/- 2.2917
Geocenter to KBO 42.70157882 +/- 2.2948
# Hcoef: 8.10
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FS561. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FS561) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 18.47125 12 08 36.70 +00 05 57.0 24.1r 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 18.50552 12 08 36.55 +00 05 58.0 24.4r 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 18.50772 12 08 36.55 +00 05 58.0 24.4r 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 18.53399 12 08 36.43 +00 05 58.7 24.2r 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 20.41605 12 08 28.29 +00 06 51.7 23.8i 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 20.46072 12 08 28.09 +00 06 53.1 23.9i 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 20.49692 12 08 27.95 +00 06 54.1 23.9i 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 25.44887 12 08 06.47 +00 09 13.5 25.5g 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 25.48280 12 08 06.31 +00 09 14.5 25.9g 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 25.48492 12 08 06.31 +00 09 14.5 25.2g 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 25.51107 12 08 06.20 +00 09 15.5 25.3g 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 25.55615 12 08 06.00 +00 09 16.9 25.3g 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 29.27727 12 07 49.95 +00 11 01.2 23.6y 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 29.29365 12 07 49.87 +00 11 01.4 23.3y 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 29.34265 12 07 49.65 +00 11 02.7 23.9y 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX 2015 03 29.36170 12 07 49.56 +00 11 03.2 24.0y 15FS561 T09 C~8vFX
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.05
2 0.0001 -2.46 -0.06 0.02 0.08
3 0.0001 -2.46 0.10 0.02 0.08
4 0.0002 -4.39 0.05 -0.05 0.02
5 0.0053 -137.50 -0.03 0.04 -0.13
6 0.0054 -140.81 -0.13 0.13 -0.02
7 0.0055 -143.13 0.15 0.22 0.07
8 0.0191 -494.20 0.06 0.04 -0.21
9 0.0192 -496.80 -0.10 0.00 -0.23
10 0.0192 -496.80 0.05 0.00 -0.23
11 0.0193 -498.71 0.02 0.26 0.05
12 0.0194 -502.02 -0.06 0.35 0.16
13 0.0296 -764.39 0.07 0.35 0.36
14 0.0296 -765.57 0.05 0.06 0.07
15 0.0298 -769.12 -0.00 -0.06 -0.02
16 0.0298 -770.55 -0.08 -0.14 -0.09
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.