Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15FG415

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15FG415   
# Created Wed Dec  8 02:13:17 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     12 observations of     12
# Arc:   3.89y
# First observation: 2015/03/17
#  Last observation: 2019/02/03
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000036   0.005985   0.000002  -0.000438   0.011357   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     6.05 DOF:     18 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.17    0.31
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  8.501712E-06  5.911493E-03  2.116052E-07 -4.351182E-04  1.148277E-02 -1.465571E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.0069E-12 -1.3622E-12  7.6595E-15  4.2700E-14  1.3555E-12 -2.7022E-11
 -1.3622E-12  2.6455E-12  4.4842E-15 -1.0622E-13 -1.6555E-12  6.3572E-11
  7.6595E-15  4.4842E-15  1.8633E-13 -6.5338E-14  2.7928E-14  4.0314E-13
  4.2700E-14 -1.0622E-13 -6.5338E-14  7.1320E-14  3.4804E-14 -2.9351E-12
  1.3555E-12 -1.6555E-12  2.7928E-14  3.4804E-14  2.6861E-12 -2.5384E-11
 -2.7022E-11  6.3572E-11  4.0314E-13 -2.9351E-12 -2.5384E-11  1.7134E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    2.092803  160.618468   -0.265665    0.035041   -0.954916  2457098.782398
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457090.5000  =  2015/03/09
Mean Anomaly:          223.55991 +/-     0.562
Argument of Peri:      313.71646 +/-     0.502
Long of Asc Node:        6.99808 +/-     0.014
Inclination:             4.67921 +/-     0.002
Eccentricity:         0.42490661 +/-    0.0018
Semi-Major Axis:     64.54406634 +/-    0.0780
Time of Perihelion: 2528873.6322 +/-     265.3
Perihelion:          37.11886600 +/-    0.1238
Aphelion:            91.96926668 +/-    0.1602
Period (y)              518.5524 +/-      0.94
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -83.08985676 +/-    0.0117
Ecliptic Y           28.94739251 +/-    0.0042
Ecliptic Z            3.18027418 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00014533 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00145000 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00011635 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   88.04538587 +/-    0.0111
Geocenter to KBO     87.08696535 +/-    0.0124
# Hcoef:  5.95

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FG415. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FG415) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 03  17.28162  10 51 39.582  +09 31 18.28  25.4r 15FG415   568  C~31Lr      
2015 04  18.04467  10 50 36.575  +09 37 07.54        15FG415   304  C~31Lr      
2015 04  18.08969  10 50 36.488  +09 37 08.02        15FG415   304  C~31Lr      
2015 04  18.15218  10 50 36.388  +09 37 08.62        15FG415   304  C~31Lr      
2015 04  19.05869  10 50 34.976  +09 37 15.80  25.2r 15FG415   304  C~31Lr      
2015 06  20.27447  10 50 13.460  +09 37 39.90        15FG415   568  C~31Lr      
2015 06  21.26466  10 50 14.392  +09 37 32.33        15FG415   568  C~31Lr      
2016 03  08.21362  10 53 13.301  +09 20 14.89        15FG415   304  C~31Lr      
2016 03  09.19068  10 53 11.011  +09 20 28.23        15FG415   304  C~31Lr      
2016 03  09.23846  10 53 10.878  +09 20 29.03        15FG415   304  C~31Lr      
2019 02  02.26663  10 58 15.686  +08 44 22.48        15FG415   304  C~31Lr      
2019 02  03.31633  10 58 13.555  +08 44 36.07  25.3r 15FG415   304  C~31Lr      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.17
     2   0.0870   -994.76     0.22     -31.22    -0.14
     3   0.0871   -996.14    -0.02     -31.26    -0.12
     4   0.0873   -997.73    -0.05     -31.27    -0.03
     5   0.0897  -1019.78    -0.03     -32.55    -0.15
     6   0.2601  -1323.31    -0.03    -131.06     0.19
     7   0.2628  -1307.69    -0.06    -132.83    -0.01
     8   0.9772   1534.97    -0.02     -85.00     0.31
     9   0.9799   1498.55     0.19     -85.60     0.12
    10   0.9800   1496.42    -0.12     -85.61     0.14
    11   3.8822   6499.37    -0.03    -357.11    -0.05
    12   3.8851   6464.95     0.02    -356.72    -0.09

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15FG415    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        64.056    64.290    63.846
ecceobj         0.433     0.438     0.429
incobj          4.718     4.719     4.717
qmin           35.854    35.780    35.995
qmax           94.818    94.967    94.324
amean          64.220    64.603    64.159
amin           63.116    63.788    63.197
amax           65.691    65.691    65.469
emean           0.429     0.436     0.426
emin            0.417     0.426     0.416
emax            0.443     0.446     0.441
imean           4.921     5.159     4.992
imin            4.499     4.992     4.543
imax            5.484     5.365     5.456
excite_mean     0.438     0.445     0.435
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.097     3.092     3.100

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       171.7     172.8     169.5
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0