The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FD502 # Created Tue May 20 01:10:26 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 29 observations of 29 # Arc: 62.83d # First observation: 2015/01/16 # Last observation: 2015/03/20 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000001 0.032930 0.000001 -0.007743 0.029129 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 6.61 DOF: 52 RMS: 0.08 # Min/Max residuals: -0.20 0.14 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.732112E-05 3.128761E-02 -4.421774E-06 -7.735698E-03 2.877373E-02 -3.554519E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.7664E-13 4.8635E-11 4.9147E-14 -7.4149E-13 1.2005E-11 9.5091E-10 4.8635E-11 1.7083E-07 1.1287E-10 1.2971E-09 3.1284E-08 7.5547E-07 4.9147E-14 1.1287E-10 1.4919E-13 1.8823E-13 2.1224E-11 6.3390E-10 -7.4149E-13 1.2971E-09 1.8823E-13 3.3749E-11 2.0065E-10 -3.2498E-09 1.2005E-11 3.1284E-08 2.1224E-11 2.0065E-10 5.8290E-09 1.6265E-07 9.5091E-10 7.5547E-07 6.3390E-10 -3.2498E-09 1.6265E-07 9.2584E-06 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -10.103413 152.195297 0.583283 -0.138386 -0.777538 2457039.061148 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457030.5000 = 2015/01/08 Mean Anomaly: 327.00096 +/- 14.217 Argument of Peri: 263.57340 +/- 24.211 Long of Asc Node: 296.75166 +/- 0.361 Inclination: 17.09303 +/- 0.148 Eccentricity: 0.19321356 +/- 0.0699 Semi-Major Axis: 41.70293832 +/- 0.9968 Time of Perihelion: 2466047.1918 +/- 3871.3 Perihelion: 33.64536511 +/- 3.0252 Aphelion: 49.76051153 +/- 3.1495 Period (y) 269.3135 +/- 9.66 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -30.69426759 +/- 0.0803 Ecliptic Y 16.84445142 +/- 0.0424 Ecliptic Z -6.09689243 +/- 0.0162 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00098381 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00285421 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00066522 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 35.53935429 +/- 0.0723 Geocenter to KBO 34.75392140 +/- 0.0922 # Hcoef: 8.73
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FD502. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FD502) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 01 16.56037 10 02 18.89 +01 14 40.4 24.0z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 16.59524 10 02 18.72 +01 14 40.7 24.0z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 16.62952 10 02 18.58 +01 14 41.0 24.2z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 16.64776 10 02 18.49 +01 14 41.0 23.6z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 16.66214 10 02 18.43 +01 14 41.4 23.7z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 17.42357 10 02 15.04 +01 14 48.3 23.9i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 17.42812 10 02 15.01 +01 14 48.1 24.0i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 17.43268 10 02 14.99 +01 14 48.4 24.0i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 17.43723 10 02 14.98 +01 14 48.4 24.1i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 17.44180 10 02 14.95 +01 14 48.4 24.0i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 19.43808 10 02 05.81 +01 15 08.6 24.1z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 19.44263 10 02 05.79 +01 15 08.6 24.0z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 19.44721 10 02 05.78 +01 15 08.6 23.8z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 19.45179 10 02 05.75 +01 15 08.6 23.8z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 19.45634 10 02 05.73 +01 15 08.6 23.9z 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 20.44268 10 02 01.13 +01 15 19.6 25.1g 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 20.44750 10 02 01.11 +01 15 19.6 25.0g 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 20.45704 10 02 01.06 +01 15 19.5 25.0g 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 20.46183 10 02 01.04 +01 15 19.6 25.0g 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 21.57962 10 01 55.74 +01 15 32.7 23.9i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 21.60626 10 01 55.62 +01 15 33.0 24.0i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 01 21.63213 10 01 55.49 +01 15 33.4 24.5i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 03 18.39734 09 57 04.10 +01 37 27.2 24.2r 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 03 18.41671 09 57 04.01 +01 37 27.7 24.2r 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 03 18.45301 09 57 03.84 +01 37 28.7 24.1r 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 03 20.34625 09 56 55.20 +01 38 24.3 24.0i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 03 20.36143 09 56 55.14 +01 38 24.7 24.0i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 03 20.37600 09 56 55.05 +01 38 25.0 23.9i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj 2015 03 20.39052 09 56 55.00 +01 38 25.3 24.1i 15FD502 T09 C~8stj
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.04
2 0.0001 -2.49 -0.18 -0.62 -0.03
3 0.0002 -4.56 0.04 -1.07 0.05
4 0.0002 -5.83 0.00 -1.55 -0.14
5 0.0003 -6.81 -0.02 -1.49 0.14
6 0.0024 -56.82 0.09 -12.92 0.08
7 0.0024 -57.17 0.05 -13.27 -0.20
8 0.0024 -57.56 -0.03 -13.09 0.05
9 0.0024 -57.70 0.14 -13.15 0.07
10 0.0024 -58.12 0.03 -13.31 -0.02
11 0.0079 -193.53 -0.13 -42.64 0.07
12 0.0079 -193.81 -0.10 -42.74 0.03
13 0.0079 -193.95 0.08 -42.79 0.05
14 0.0079 -194.37 -0.02 -42.95 -0.04
15 0.0079 -194.65 0.02 -43.06 -0.08
16 0.0106 -263.09 -0.04 -57.04 0.09
17 0.0106 -263.38 0.02 -57.14 0.06
18 0.0107 -264.04 0.03 -57.50 -0.16
19 0.0107 -264.36 0.06 -57.51 -0.10
20 0.0137 -343.36 -0.06 -73.22 -0.02
21 0.0138 -345.15 0.07 -73.57 0.01
22 0.0139 -347.12 -0.03 -73.88 0.07
23 0.1666 -4900.43 -0.04 -380.63 0.08
24 0.1666 -4901.87 0.00 -380.63 0.02
25 0.1667 -4904.61 0.04 -380.59 -0.03
26 0.1719 -5045.52 -0.05 -374.06 0.10
27 0.1719 -5046.50 0.11 -374.00 0.11
28 0.1720 -5047.87 -0.17 -374.20 -0.13
29 0.1720 -5048.68 0.11 -374.18 -0.16
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15FD502 quality flag:1 Type: SCATEXTD CENTAURR CENTAURS axisobj 41.399 45.753 39.183 ecceobj 0.186 0.392 0.145 incobj 17.113 17.208 17.518 qmin 33.198 27.632 29.587 qmax 50.068 64.331 50.499 amean 41.433 45.273 39.436 amin 41.040 43.677 37.859 amax 41.864 46.451 40.801 emean 0.171 0.376 0.190 emin 0.148 0.340 0.116 emax 0.197 0.396 0.254 imean 19.076 19.779 19.550 imin 18.033 18.768 16.509 imax 20.095 21.008 21.746 excite_mean 0.369 0.506 0.386 fracstop 1.000 0.014 1.000 cjmean 2.911 2.801 2.874 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 178.1 304.8 180.3 kozaiamp 179.9 11.3 180.0