Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15DX249

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15DX249   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:14 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     36 observations of     36
# Arc:   5.10y
# First observation: 2013/03/31
#  Last observation: 2018/05/05
# Chi-squared of fit:    86.63 DOF:     66 RMS:  0.27
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.62    1.02
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.729258E-05  3.071739E-02  7.558942E-06  1.365988E-02  2.741064E-02  7.020008E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  9.5573E-13 -6.9195E-13  3.0775E-13 -2.6331E-13 -2.0215E-13 -3.4591E-12
 -6.9195E-13  7.1457E-13 -3.8348E-13  3.1709E-13 -5.4089E-14  4.0864E-12
  3.0775E-13 -3.8348E-13  5.0444E-13 -3.0051E-13  7.2970E-14 -2.3973E-12
 -2.6331E-13  3.1709E-13 -3.0051E-13  2.0895E-13 -4.7494E-14  1.9758E-12
 -2.0215E-13 -5.4089E-14  7.2970E-14 -4.7494E-14  3.6693E-13 -5.1656E-13
 -3.4591E-12  4.0864E-12 -2.3973E-12  1.9758E-12 -5.1656E-13  2.5415E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -10.788978  149.770062   -0.651831   -0.141922   -0.745174  2456382.555014
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456382.5000  =  2013/03/31
Mean Anomaly:           10.76758 +/-     0.007
Argument of Peri:      297.37744 +/-     0.014
Long of Asc Node:      172.98043 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            26.28617 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.52191213 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     72.17400226 +/-    0.0298
Time of Perihelion: 2449683.8839 +/-       6.1
Perihelion:          34.50551521 +/-    0.0214
Aphelion:           109.84248930 +/-    0.0480
Period (y)              613.1679 +/-      0.38
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -31.94707371 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y           17.86380219 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z           -6.82893849 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00236680 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00217509 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00120915 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   37.23376670 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     36.48208174 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  7.05

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DX249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DX249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2013 03  31.054236 09 52 24.84   +01 25 53.8   22.3z 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2014 03  01.027315 10 02 09.22   +01 14 09.1   23.4g 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2014 03  05.309757 10 01 48.98   +01 16 51.4   23.3g 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2015 02  17.23858  10 10 40.99   +01 14 32.6         15DX249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.23908  10 10 40.98   +01 14 33.1   23.3g 15DX249   W84  C~406N      
2015 02  17.30722  10 10 40.66   +01 14 35.3   23.2g 15DX249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.35420  10 10 40.44   +01 14 36.6   23.4g 15DX249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.08226  10 10 36.90   +01 15 02.0         15DX249   W84  C~406N      
2015 02  18.14925  10 10 36.57   +01 15 04.0   23.1g 15DX249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.21740  10 10 36.26   +01 15 06.3   23.1g 15DX249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.28754  10 10 35.89   +01 15 08.6   23.2g 15DX249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.28804  10 10 35.88   +01 15 09.1         15DX249   W84  C~406N      
2015 02  18.35653  10 10 35.58   +01 15 11.3   23.2g 15DX249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  19.14637  10 10 31.72   +01 15 39.0         15DX249   W84  C~406N      
2015 02  19.21563  10 10 31.40   +01 15 40.9         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  19.28453  10 10 31.07   +01 15 43.3   23.3g 15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  19.35363  10 10 30.74   +01 15 45.6   23.2g 15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  19.35413  10 10 30.72   +01 15 46.0         15DX249   W84  C~406N      
2015 02  22.13833  10 10 17.21   +01 17 24.2         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  22.20651  10 10 16.90   +01 17 26.2         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  22.27537  10 10 16.55   +01 17 28.5         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  22.34416  10 10 16.21   +01 17 31.8         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  24.12309  10 10 07.62   +01 18 35.1         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  24.18461  10 10 07.31   +01 18 37.1         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  27.11448  10 09 53.21   +01 20 24.3         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 02  27.18265  10 09 52.83   +01 20 27.0         15DX249   W84  C~2iOX      
2015 03  14.047407 10 08 44.22   +01 29 50.4   22.6i 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2015 03  14.128970 10 08 43.86   +01 29 53.6   22.7r 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2015 03  14.182789 10 08 43.62   +01 29 55.8   23.1g 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2016 01  12.326476 10 20 39.43   +01 06 14.8   22.8r 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2016 01  12.328258 10 20 39.43   +01 06 14.8   23.1g 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2016 01  14.322639 10 20 32.79   +01 06 48.6   23.0g 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2016 01  14.323848 10 20 32.78   +01 06 48.7   22.8r 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2017 01  27.324769 10 26 56.85   +01 18 57.7   22.7i 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2018 05  05.048993 10 28 05.84   +02 19 53.2   23.5g 15DX249   W84  C~444E      
2018 05  05.050833 10 28 05.82   +02 19 53.4   23.6g 15DX249   W84  C~444E      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.03
     2   0.9171      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.10
     3   0.9288      0.00    -0.33       0.00     0.17
     4   1.8841      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.32
     5   1.8841      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.16
     6   1.8843      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.04
     7   1.8845      0.00     0.33       0.00    -0.27
     8   1.8865      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.14
     9   1.8866      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.17
    10   1.8868      0.00     0.27       0.00    -0.22
    11   1.8870      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.34
    12   1.8870      0.00    -0.20       0.00     0.14
    13   1.8872      0.00     0.35       0.00    -0.02
    14   1.8894      0.00    -0.30       0.00     0.31
    15   1.8896      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.20
    16   1.8897      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.20
    17   1.8899      0.00     0.33       0.00    -0.30
    18   1.8899      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.08
    19   1.8976      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.17
    20   1.8977      0.00     0.21       0.00    -0.26
    21   1.8979      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.41
    22   1.8981      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.44
    23   1.9030      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.14
    24   1.9032      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.36
    25   1.9112      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.04
    26   1.9114      0.00    -0.62       0.00     0.15
    27   1.9521      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.02
    28   1.9523      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.07
    29   1.9524      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.19
    30   2.7851      0.00    -0.37       0.00     0.51
    31   2.7851      0.00    -0.28       0.00     0.48
    32   2.7906      0.00    -0.20       0.00     0.35
    33   2.7906      0.00    -0.29       0.00     0.43
    34   3.8283      0.00     1.02       0.00    -0.59
    35   5.0951      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.10
    36   5.0951      0.00    -0.33       0.00     0.06

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15DX249    quality flag:3

Type:     11:3EEEEEE11:3EEEEEE11:3EEEEEE

axisobj        71.908    71.908    71.908
ecceobj         0.520     0.520     0.520
incobj         26.316    26.316    26.316
qmin           32.361    32.347    32.362
qmax          112.890   112.836   112.830
amean          71.593    71.593    71.593
amin           70.654    70.682    70.616
amax           73.045    72.999    73.001
emean           0.532     0.533     0.532
emin            0.510     0.510     0.510
emax            0.548     0.548     0.548
imean          24.307    24.265    24.315
imin           23.447    23.411    23.458
imax           25.738    25.738    25.738
excite_mean     0.673     0.673     0.673
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.799     2.799     2.799

libcent 0       176.8     179.7     178.9
libamp  0        90.6      67.8      75.4
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       204.9     208.2     203.4
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0