Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15DS249

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15DS249   
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:17 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     31 observations of     31
# Arc: 108.87d
# First observation: 2015/02/17
#  Last observation: 2015/06/06
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000031   0.044366   0.000052  -0.001059   0.034374   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    27.45 DOF:     56 RMS:  0.17
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.72    0.31
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.743597E-05  3.763946E-02  8.221800E-07  2.255044E-04  3.340109E-02 -2.524859E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  1.5835E-13 -8.6075E-13 -6.5351E-15  1.4724E-13  2.9116E-13  5.2989E-11
 -8.6075E-13  4.1474E-10  3.1413E-12 -8.1241E-11  4.5586E-11 -7.3702E-09
 -6.5351E-15  3.1413E-12  1.2359E-13 -1.0902E-12  3.2879E-13 -5.9135E-11
  1.4724E-13 -8.1241E-11 -1.0902E-12  2.0354E-11 -8.6275E-12  1.5123E-09
  2.9116E-13  4.5586E-11  3.2879E-13 -8.6275E-12  6.9782E-12 -5.5611E-10
  5.2989E-11 -7.3702E-09 -5.9135E-11  1.5123E-09 -5.5611E-10  1.6821E-07
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -11.739894  159.526552    0.198848   -0.196151   -0.944795  2457070.664208
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:          340.27407 +/-     0.830
Argument of Peri:        3.50865 +/-     0.093
Long of Asc Node:      246.50278 +/-     0.023
Inclination:            11.38620 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.67099946 +/-    0.0110
Semi-Major Axis:     55.58523097 +/-    1.5275
Time of Perihelion: 2465364.6638 +/-      69.9
Perihelion:          18.28757084 +/-    0.7909
Aphelion:            92.88289109 +/-    2.6245
Period (y)              414.4263 +/-     17.08
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -28.29894017 +/-    0.0022
Ecliptic Y           10.77676682 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Z           -6.09171293 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00081199 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00360338 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00043929 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   30.88814796 +/-    0.0020
Geocenter to KBO     29.93914420 +/-    0.0024
# Hcoef:  8.94

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DS249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DS249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  17.16343  10 26 46.63   -02 53 32.1   24.6g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.24936  10 26 46.10   -02 53 29.1   23.7g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.36521  10 26 45.39   -02 53 25.5   24.5g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.22817  10 26 40.14   -02 52 58.5   24.5g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.29851  10 26 39.72   -02 52 56.2   24.2g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.36732  10 26 39.30   -02 52 53.8   24.8g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  19.22639  10 26 34.05   -02 52 26.5   24.5g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  19.29541  10 26 33.63   -02 52 24.5   24.3g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  19.36432  10 26 33.23   -02 52 22.2   24.2g 15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  24.13381  10 26 04.03   -02 49 42.2         15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  24.19545  10 26 03.65   -02 49 40.9         15DS249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 03  22.155081 10 23 31.39   -02 32 48.2         15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  22.167789 10 23 31.32   -02 32 47.9         15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  22.179178 10 23 31.24   -02 32 47.2         15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  22.190567 10 23 31.19   -02 32 46.5         15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  22.198183 10 23 31.12   -02 32 46.3         15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  23.009699 10 23 26.84   -02 32 12.5   24.0g 15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  23.017280 10 23 26.81   -02 32 12.2   24.1g 15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  23.024861 10 23 26.76   -02 32 11.8   24.0g 15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  23.035938 10 23 26.71   -02 32 11.5   23.5r 15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  23.048160 10 23 26.64   -02 32 10.9   23.5r 15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  23.060382 10 23 26.58   -02 32 10.5   23.6r 15DS249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 05  19.011589 10 20 53.29   -01 59 03.2         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      
2015 05  19.016731 10 20 53.27   -01 59 02.8         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      
2015 05  19.021877 10 20 53.28   -01 59 02.8         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      
2015 05  19.027019 10 20 53.28   -01 59 02.4         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      
2015 05  19.032161 10 20 53.27   -01 59 02.4         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      
2015 06  06.004998 10 21 21.06   -01 54 31.5         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      
2015 06  06.019912 10 21 21.10   -01 54 31.5         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      
2015 06  06.027367 10 21 21.11   -01 54 31.6         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      
2015 06  06.034825 10 21 21.13   -01 54 31.4         15DS249   309  C~3xrM      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.15
     2   0.0002     -8.49    -0.04      -0.18     0.16
     3   0.0006    -19.70     0.02      -0.81     0.16
     4   0.0029   -102.74    -0.15      -5.11    -0.06
     5   0.0031   -109.44     0.04      -5.32     0.09
     6   0.0033   -116.17     0.02      -5.44     0.31
     7   0.0056   -199.33    -0.28      -9.46    -0.02
     8   0.0058   -205.91    -0.08      -9.95    -0.19
     9   0.0060   -212.33     0.25     -10.06     0.03
    10   0.0191   -677.90    -0.13     -24.89     0.03
    11   0.0193   -683.66     0.24     -25.81    -0.72
    12   0.0903  -3178.44     0.22      61.47     0.03
    13   0.0904  -3179.52     0.29      61.36    -0.18
    14   0.0904  -3180.90    -0.04      61.56    -0.07
    15   0.0904  -3181.85     0.04      61.93     0.21
    16   0.0904  -3182.90    -0.32      61.72    -0.06
    17   0.0927  -3255.04    -0.13      69.10     0.08
    18   0.0927  -3255.57     0.03      69.21     0.12
    19   0.0927  -3256.42    -0.13      69.30     0.15
    20   0.0927  -3257.22     0.06      69.30     0.06
    21   0.0928  -3258.42    -0.03      69.47     0.12
    22   0.0928  -3259.40     0.09      69.50     0.05
    23   0.2487  -6135.01     0.28    1053.78    -0.17
    24   0.2487  -6135.44    -0.13    1054.04    -0.02
    25   0.2488  -6135.30     0.02    1054.10    -0.08
    26   0.2488  -6135.45    -0.11    1054.47     0.18
    27   0.2488  -6135.59    -0.24    1054.41     0.01
    28   0.2980  -5850.36     0.01    1461.66     0.13
    29   0.2980  -5849.81     0.09    1461.88     0.03
    30   0.2981  -5849.63     0.03    1461.84    -0.17
    31   0.2981  -5849.43    -0.00    1462.14    -0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15DS249    quality flag:1

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        54.706    58.761    51.320
ecceobj         0.667     0.695     0.639
incobj         11.375    11.375    11.375
qmin           17.937    17.635    18.282
qmax           95.376   104.034    85.585
amean          54.524    58.901    51.636
amin           50.514    57.018    51.320
amax           56.871    60.977    52.105
emean           0.666     0.695     0.641
emin            0.638     0.682     0.636
emax            0.682     0.706     0.644
imean          12.607    12.909    12.623
imin           12.390    12.558    12.537
imax           13.047    13.315    12.713
excite_mean     0.701     0.730     0.677
fracstop        0.008     0.008     0.002
cjmean          2.514     2.474     2.548

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        11.4       9.5       6.1
kozaiamp          7.3       6.2       1.9