Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BY518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BY518   
# Created Wed Feb 19 02:11:41 2020
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   98 observations of   98
# Arc:  10.34y
# First observation: 2007/12/06
#  Last observation: 2018/04/10
# Chi-squared of fit:   105.17 DOF:  190 RMS:  0.18
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.51    1.96
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.830647E-05  2.740549E-02  3.310207E-06  4.965465E-03  2.579969E-02 -3.070165E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3712E-13 -5.2915E-14  7.1729E-15 -5.2171E-15 -1.2811E-14 -1.0537E-13
 -5.2915E-14  2.9781E-14 -4.3788E-15  4.5729E-15  3.1917E-14  9.2063E-14
  7.1729E-15 -4.3788E-15  1.9935E-13 -2.5470E-14  6.4542E-16 -1.7177E-14
 -5.2171E-15  4.5729E-15 -2.5470E-14  4.0922E-15  4.7200E-15  1.6154E-14
 -1.2811E-14  3.1917E-14  6.4542E-16  4.7200E-15  8.8937E-14  9.4225E-14
 -1.0537E-13  9.2063E-14 -1.7177E-14  1.6154E-14  9.4225E-14  3.2548E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -24.735425  128.182123    0.804744   -0.241350   -0.524073  2454440.892931
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2454440.5000  =  2007/12/06
Mean Anomaly:          330.44802 +/-     0.004
Argument of Peri:      335.54393 +/-     0.006
Long of Asc Node:      194.23414 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            26.15701 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.21331464 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     47.37206977 +/-    0.0025
Time of Perihelion: 2464216.6098 +/-       8.9
Perihelion:          37.26691376 +/-    0.0026
Aphelion:            57.47722578 +/-    0.0035
Period (y)              326.0557 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -21.48675880 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           28.61768076 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z          -16.21825170 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00223307 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00185794 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00061481 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   39.28983212 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     38.76024934 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  6.44

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BY518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BY518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2007 12  06.392177 08 17 24.39   -05 44 03.6   23.4V 15BY518   645  C~2scb      
2007 12  06.393006 08 17 24.40   -05 44 03.5         15BY518   645  C~2scb      
2007 12  06.395494 08 17 24.39   -05 44 03.7         15BY518   645  C~2scb      
2008 01  01.313332 08 15 42.86   -05 47 43.1   22.6V 15BY518   645  C~2scb      
2008 01  01.314161 08 15 42.87   -05 47 43.1         15BY518   645  C~2scb      
2008 01  01.316649 08 15 42.85   -05 47 43.2         15BY518   645  C~2scc      
2014 01  04.54955  08 54 52.487  -06 24 34.13  21.8G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2014 04  05.25388  08 48 39.785  -05 39 14.33  22.2G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2014 12  16.59004  09 02 47.110  -06 28 17.89  22.0G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2014 12  30.50769  09 01 58.726  -06 29 59.22  21.7G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2015 01  19.47348  09 00 29.231  -06 27 57.56  22.3w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  19.48481  09 00 29.183  -06 27 57.36  22.5w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  19.49615  09 00 29.119  -06 27 57.43  22.3w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  19.50762  09 00 29.069  -06 27 57.02  22.1w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  21.49804  09 00 19.278  -06 27 27.74  22.0w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  21.51155  09 00 19.212  -06 27 27.68  22.2w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  21.52508  09 00 19.150  -06 27 27.44  21.9w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  21.53851  09 00 19.073  -06 27 27.20  21.9w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  23.39542  09 00 09.887  -06 26 57.29  22.1w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  23.39608  09 00 09.876  -06 26 57.35  22.2w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  23.40878  09 00 09.820  -06 26 57.07  22.3w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  23.40945  09 00 09.809  -06 26 56.93  22.0w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  23.42212  09 00 09.751  -06 26 56.80  21.9w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  23.42278  09 00 09.745  -06 26 56.73  22.1w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  23.43545  09 00 09.683  -06 26 56.57  22.1w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  23.43611  09 00 09.682  -06 26 56.50  22.2w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  25.37926  08 59 59.991  -06 26 22.37  22.4w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  25.39232  08 59 59.926  -06 26 22.15  22.1w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  25.40539  08 59 59.840  -06 26 21.73  22.2w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  25.41844  08 59 59.783  -06 26 21.60  22.5w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  18.38235  08 57 59.949  -06 15 51.50  22.2w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  18.39534  08 57 59.893  -06 15 51.05  22.3w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  18.40827  08 57 59.817  -06 15 50.54  22.1w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  19.35760  08 57 55.275  -06 15 18.81  21.8G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2015 02  19.37047  08 57 55.219  -06 15 18.20  21.7G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2015 02  19.38327  08 57 55.148  -06 15 17.84  21.6G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2015 02  19.39609  08 57 55.099  -06 15 17.53  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2015 02  19.40234  08 57 55.055  -06 15 17.29  22.0G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2015 02  20.37368  08 57 50.466  -06 14 44.10  22.0w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  20.38651  08 57 50.390  -06 14 43.68  22.4w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  20.39944  08 57 50.341  -06 14 43.32  22.3w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  20.41237  08 57 50.272  -06 14 42.87  22.4w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  18.34569  08 56 04.803  -05 57 46.26  22.1w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  18.35861  08 56 04.751  -05 57 45.77  22.3w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  18.37159  08 56 04.717  -05 57 45.26  22.2w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  18.38449  08 56 04.676  -05 57 44.53  22.1w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  19.34315  08 56 01.617  -05 57 03.86  21.9w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  19.35611  08 56 01.572  -05 57 03.29  22.3w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  19.36904  08 56 01.527  -05 57 02.73  22.3w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  19.38197  08 56 01.484  -05 57 02.09  22.6w 15BY518   F51  C~1vYC      
2016 01  11.51736  09 07 55.368  -06 34 37.19  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  11.52934  09 07 55.308  -06 34 37.15  21.9G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  11.54132  09 07 55.253  -06 34 37.13  22.1G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  11.55331  09 07 55.204  -06 34 36.96  22.1G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  12.47883  09 07 51.008  -06 34 29.72  22.7G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  12.49010  09 07 50.954  -06 34 29.69  22.6G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  12.50132  09 07 50.899  -06 34 29.65  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  12.51255  09 07 50.847  -06 34 29.55  22.3G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  21.50397  09 07 08.280  -06 32 45.93  21.9G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 01  31.44879  09 06 18.741  -06 29 40.59  22.0G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 02  09.43688  09 05 33.290  -06 25 54.19  22.4G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 02  09.45004  09 05 33.214  -06 25 53.87  22.2G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 02  09.46322  09 05 33.142  -06 25 53.53  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 02  09.47640  09 05 33.087  -06 25 53.06  22.1G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 02  11.36157  09 05 23.628  -06 24 59.05  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  02.32118  09 03 49.241  -06 13 32.43  22.4G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  02.33372  09 03 49.169  -06 13 31.93  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  02.34625  09 03 49.132  -06 13 31.55  22.4G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  04.33998  09 03 40.599  -06 12 13.49  22.3G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  04.35352  09 03 40.541  -06 12 13.02  22.4G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  04.36705  09 03 40.476  -06 12 12.42  22.1G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  04.38057  09 03 40.431  -06 12 11.95  22.6G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  06.27967  09 03 32.521  -06 10 56.62  22.4G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  06.29223  09 03 32.477  -06 10 55.93  22.6G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  06.30483  09 03 32.416  -06 10 55.40  22.3G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  10.26287  09 03 16.629  -06 08 14.71  22.4G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  10.27521  09 03 16.603  -06 08 13.88  22.6G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  10.28754  09 03 16.538  -06 08 13.59  22.4G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 03  31.30025  09 02 11.855  -05 53 16.60  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 04  11.25628  09 01 53.124  -05 45 29.81  21.7G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 04  11.26893  09 01 53.123  -05 45 29.12  22.7G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 04  11.28141  09 01 53.108  -05 45 28.53  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 04  11.29389  09 01 53.090  -05 45 27.98  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2016 04  23.26204  09 01 45.989  -05 37 25.22  22.8G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2017 01  03.52069  09 15 15.302  -06 40 02.12  22.1G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2017 01  03.53141  09 15 15.265  -06 40 02.15  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2017 01  03.54211  09 15 15.218  -06 40 02.15  22.1G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2017 01  03.55281  09 15 15.172  -06 40 02.18  22.3G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2017 01  31.42833  09 13 05.284  -06 34 25.37  21.7G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2017 12  28.51346  09 22 28.798  -06 44 27.26  22.3G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbh      
2018 01  17.47398  09 21 06.554  -06 43 10.80  22.2G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbi      
2018 01  17.50059  09 21 06.411  -06 43 10.46  22.2G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbi      
2018 01  17.51408  09 21 06.328  -06 43 10.16  22.5G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbi      
2018 02  20.40451  09 18 18.675  -06 29 45.82  21.1G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbi      
2018 03  10.33030  09 16 57.581  -06 18 26.30  22.4G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbi      
2018 03  19.32930  09 16 23.355  -06 12 07.90  20.6G 15BY518   F51  C~2qbi      
2018 04  10.13928  09 15 26.283  -05 56 26.20  22.3R 15BY518   G37              
2018 04  10.23665  09 15 26.244  -05 56 22.55        15BY518   G37              

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.32       0.00     0.02
  2   0.0000      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.14
  3   0.0000      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.02
  4   0.0710      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.06
  5   0.0710      0.00     0.30       0.00    -0.06
  6   0.0710      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.16
  7   6.0812      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.04
  8   6.3295      0.00     0.22       0.00    -0.04
  9   7.0286      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.02
 10   7.0667      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.06
 11   7.1214      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.08
 12   7.1214      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.12
 13   7.1214      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.11
 14   7.1215      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.14
 15   7.1269      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.19
 16   7.1270      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.04
 17   7.1270      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.07
 18   7.1270      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.10
 19   7.1321      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.01
 20   7.1321      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.08
 21   7.1321      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.01
 22   7.1321      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.12
 23   7.1322      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.03
 24   7.1322      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.09
 25   7.1322      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.04
 26   7.1322      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.10
 27   7.1375      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.02
 28   7.1376      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.00
 29   7.1376      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.18
 30   7.1376      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.07
 31   7.2033      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.04
 32   7.2033      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.06
 33   7.2033      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.14
 34   7.2059      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.07
 35   7.2060      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.10
 36   7.2060      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.03
 37   7.2060      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.10
 38   7.2061      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.07
 39   7.2087      0.00     0.23       0.00    -0.04
 40   7.2087      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.06
 41   7.2088      0.00     0.22       0.00    -0.15
 42   7.2088      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.14
 43   7.2798      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.05
 44   7.2799      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.01
 45   7.2799      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.06
 46   7.2799      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.13
 47   7.2825      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.02
 48   7.2826      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.00
 49   7.2826      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.00
 50   7.2827      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.09
 51   8.0989      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.01
 52   8.0989      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.04
 53   8.0990      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.10
 54   8.0990      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.02
 55   8.1015      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.15
 56   8.1016      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.09
 57   8.1016      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.04
 58   8.1016      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.05
 59   8.1262      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.09
 60   8.1535      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.02
 61   8.1781      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.00
 62   8.1781      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.05
 63   8.1782      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.08
 64   8.1782      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.01
 65   8.1834      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.04
 66   8.2380      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.08
 67   8.2380      0.00    -0.18       0.00     0.09
 68   8.2381      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.01
 69   8.2435      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.06
 70   8.2436      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.01
 71   8.2436      0.00    -0.17       0.00     0.06
 72   8.2436      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.01
 73   8.2488      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.21
 74   8.2489      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.02
 75   8.2489      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.00
 76   8.2597      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.15
 77   8.2598      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.17
 78   8.2598      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.05
 79   8.3173      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.17
 80   8.3473      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.27
 81   8.3474      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.11
 82   8.3474      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.04
 83   8.3474      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.01
 84   8.3802      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.16
 85   9.0791      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.02
 86   9.0791      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.06
 87   9.0791      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.07
 88   9.0792      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.12
 89   9.1555      0.00    -0.34       0.00    -0.12
 90  10.0619      0.00     0.32       0.00    -0.07
 91  10.1166      0.00     0.21       0.00    -0.12
 92  10.1167      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.09
 93  10.1167      0.00    -0.34       0.00     0.05
 94  10.2095      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.11
 95  10.2586      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.01
 96  10.2832      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.30
 97  10.3429      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.02
 98  10.3432      0.00     1.96       0.00    -0.51

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BY518    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        47.611    47.611    47.611
ecceobj         0.214     0.214     0.214
incobj         26.173    26.173    26.173
qmin           35.531    35.436    34.950
qmax           61.026    61.414    61.747
amean          47.797    47.808    47.796
amin           47.133    47.088    47.087
amax           48.589    48.606    48.574
emean           0.235     0.229     0.238
emin            0.201     0.191     0.205
emax            0.258     0.264     0.271
imean          25.904    26.221    25.934
imin           25.422    25.478    25.451
imax           26.477    27.024    26.353
excite_mean     0.496     0.498     0.498
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.832     2.830     2.830

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       180.8     182.3     188.2
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     180.0