Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BX518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BX518   
# Created Thu Apr 18 01:10:26 2019
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   66 observations of   66
# Arc:   6.19y
# First observation: 2012/01/29
#  Last observation: 2018/04/10
# Chi-squared of fit:    18.94 DOF:  126 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.27    0.34
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.343923E-05  2.106591E-02  5.824935E-06  7.667930E-03  2.370864E-02 -3.669738E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  6.1370E-13 -2.8925E-13  1.3202E-13 -8.3487E-14 -1.7091E-13 -1.4959E-12
 -2.8925E-13  1.6825E-13 -8.9094E-14  5.6297E-14  1.2304E-13  1.0082E-12
  1.3202E-13 -8.9094E-14  3.3477E-13 -9.8860E-14 -6.8349E-14 -5.9570E-13
 -8.3487E-14  5.6297E-14 -9.8860E-14  3.7535E-14  4.2836E-14  3.7675E-13
 -1.7091E-13  1.2304E-13 -6.8349E-14  4.2836E-14  1.5665E-13  7.6301E-13
 -1.4959E-12  1.0082E-12 -5.9570E-13  3.7675E-13  7.6301E-13  6.7510E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -20.853003  166.702285    0.601711   -0.277950   -0.729711  2455956.077936
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455956.5000  =  2012/01/30
Mean Anomaly:          278.27783 +/-     0.022
Argument of Peri:       53.60591 +/-     0.013
Long of Asc Node:      209.91682 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            28.23370 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.17070955 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     42.71999025 +/-    0.0028
Time of Perihelion: 2479108.1812 +/-       9.9
Perihelion:          35.42728006 +/-    0.0053
Aphelion:            50.01270045 +/-    0.0058
Period (y)              279.2254 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -38.97768101 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Y            9.83219563 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z          -15.01420735 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00048541 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00238163 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00097843 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   42.91115740 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     42.17884969 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  5.56

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BX518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BX518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2012 01  29.57717  10 38 16.205  -13 57 04.78  22.4G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2012 01  29.59067  10 38 16.137  -13 57 04.48  21.6G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2015 01  02.61904  10 55 34.594  -14 08 17.03  22.1G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2015 01  18.53177  10 54 56.305  -14 10 01.91  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  18.54405  10 54 56.276  -14 10 01.82  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  18.55632  10 54 56.228  -14 10 01.73  22.0w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  18.56863  10 54 56.190  -14 10 01.73  21.7w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  20.49703  10 54 50.270  -14 10 01.44  21.6w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  20.51016  10 54 50.233  -14 10 01.46  21.7w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  20.52329  10 54 50.188  -14 10 01.49  21.7w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  20.53646  10 54 50.146  -14 10 01.38  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  22.50867  10 54 43.831  -14 09 58.01  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  22.52125  10 54 43.781  -14 09 58.03  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  22.53382  10 54 43.750  -14 09 57.93  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  22.54640  10 54 43.703  -14 09 57.93  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.35732  10 50 33.599  -13 47 49.82  21.7w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.36788  10 50 33.546  -13 47 49.37  21.7w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.37845  10 50 33.501  -13 47 48.94  21.7w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.38899  10 50 33.456  -13 47 48.43  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  23.38599  10 50 29.229  -13 47 10.07  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  23.39662  10 50 29.178  -13 47 09.79  21.8w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  23.40720  10 50 29.132  -13 47 09.36  22.0w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  23.41782  10 50 29.093  -13 47 08.95  21.6w 15BX518   F51  C~1vYC      
2016 01  14.57062  11 00 34.021  -14 13 11.58  21.8G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 01  14.58098  11 00 33.985  -14 13 11.71  21.4G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 01  14.59133  11 00 33.961  -14 13 11.70  21.9G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 01  14.60166  11 00 33.929  -14 13 11.74  21.7G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 01  18.55494  11 00 23.066  -14 13 22.01  22.0G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 01  18.56744  11 00 23.037  -14 13 21.89  21.7G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 01  18.59247  11 00 22.963  -14 13 22.02  22.0G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 02  28.48289  10 57 41.189  -14 03 48.90  21.7G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  07.38435  10 57 04.919  -13 59 51.42  21.6G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  07.39592  10 57 04.862  -13 59 51.12  21.9G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  07.40750  10 57 04.806  -13 59 50.75  21.8G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  07.41908  10 57 04.752  -13 59 50.33  21.9G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  15.38234  10 56 28.606  -13 55 19.60  21.2G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  15.39420  10 56 28.546  -13 55 19.03  21.0G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  28.33226  10 55 33.019  -13 47 07.15  21.6G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  28.34387  10 55 32.956  -13 47 06.58  21.1G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  28.35544  10 55 32.913  -13 47 06.27  20.8G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 03  28.36701  10 55 32.853  -13 47 05.93  21.4G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 04  03.33753  10 55 09.364  -13 43 03.53  20.2G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 04  29.29762  10 53 51.350  -13 24 59.03  21.9G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 04  29.30923  10 53 51.324  -13 24 58.66  21.9G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 04  29.32087  10 53 51.308  -13 24 58.20  22.1G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 04  29.33248  10 53 51.287  -13 24 57.56  22.1G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 05  05.26830  10 53 40.275  -13 20 58.81  22.2G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 05  05.27950  10 53 40.256  -13 20 58.38  21.7G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 05  05.29069  10 53 40.236  -13 20 58.01  21.8G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2016 05  05.30186  10 53 40.216  -13 20 57.49  22.0G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 01  30.53518  11 05 10.834  -14 15 35.64  21.4G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 01  30.54682  11 05 10.805  -14 15 35.45  21.5G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 02  17.51311  11 03 58.140  -14 11 09.07  21.9G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 02  17.52560  11 03 58.100  -14 11 08.91  21.8G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 02  17.53807  11 03 58.042  -14 11 08.65  22.1G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 02  17.55055  11 03 57.985  -14 11 08.39  22.5G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 03  21.38729  11 01 33.757  -13 55 04.36  21.5G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 03  21.39849  11 01 33.704  -13 55 03.88  21.6G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 03  21.40971  11 01 33.654  -13 55 03.49  21.7G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 03  21.42092  11 01 33.608  -13 55 03.08  21.9G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2017 03  31.37797  11 00 51.650  -13 48 32.96        15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2018 01  10.58825  11 11 40.957  -14 18 17.70  22.3G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2018 01  10.59860  11 11 40.921  -14 18 17.85  22.2G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2018 01  10.61929  11 11 40.873  -14 18 18.08  22.4G 15BX518   F51  C~2ji4      
2018 04  10.16493  11 05 47.305  -13 44 53.81  21.6R 15BX518   G37              
2018 04  10.21052  11 05 47.135  -13 44 52.00        15BX518   G37              

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.18
  2   0.0000      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.00
  3   2.9269      0.00     0.34       0.00    -0.13
  4   2.9704      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.07
  5   2.9705      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.03
  6   2.9705      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.13
  7   2.9705      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.13
  8   2.9758      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.07
  9   2.9759      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.04
 10   2.9759      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.00
 11   2.9759      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.09
 12   2.9813      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.08
 13   2.9814      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.03
 14   2.9814      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.10
 15   2.9814      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.07
 16   3.1425      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.11
 17   3.1425      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.06
 18   3.1425      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.03
 19   3.1425      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.07
 20   3.1453      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.13
 21   3.1453      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.00
 22   3.1453      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.02
 23   3.1454      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.02
 24   3.9589      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.07
 25   3.9589      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.01
 26   3.9590      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.04
 27   3.9590      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.04
 28   3.9698      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.06
 29   3.9699      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.07
 30   3.9699      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.03
 31   4.0819      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.22
 32   4.1035      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.03
 33   4.1035      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.04
 34   4.1036      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.04
 35   4.1036      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.00
 36   4.1254      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.10
 37   4.1254      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.04
 38   4.1609      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.06
 39   4.1609      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.05
 40   4.1609      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.11
 41   4.1610      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.23
 42   4.1773      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.27
 43   4.2484      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.17
 44   4.2484      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.07
 45   4.2484      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.05
 46   4.2485      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.21
 47   4.2647      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.06
 48   4.2648      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.05
 49   4.2648      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.03
 50   4.2648      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.05
 51   5.0047      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.05
 52   5.0047      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.05
 53   5.0539      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.08
 54   5.0539      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.03
 55   5.0540      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.03
 56   5.0540      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.04
 57   5.1412      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.02
 58   5.1412      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.04
 59   5.1412      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.00
 60   5.1413      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
 61   5.1685      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.04
 62   5.9494      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.08
 63   5.9494      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.00
 64   5.9495      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.08
 65   6.1946      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.10
 66   6.1948      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BX518    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        42.688    42.688    42.688
ecceobj         0.170     0.170     0.170
incobj         28.237    28.237    28.237
qmin           34.560    34.576    34.568
qmax           51.442    51.442    51.426
amean          42.834    42.833    42.833
amin           42.472    42.471    42.474
amax           43.244    43.230    43.232
emean           0.172     0.171     0.171
emin            0.153     0.153     0.153
emax            0.191     0.190     0.190
imean          28.761    28.763    28.761
imin           28.262    28.268    28.264
imax           29.256    29.263    29.252
excite_mean     0.511     0.511     0.511
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.763     2.763     2.763

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       183.3     183.2     183.2
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0