Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BN518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BN518   
# Created Sun Apr 21 01:10:01 2019
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   79 observations of   79
# Arc:   5.20y
# First observation: 2012/10/31
#  Last observation: 2018/01/13
# Chi-squared of fit:    66.79 DOF:  152 RMS:  0.16
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.72    0.36
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.612625E-05  2.700795E-02 -5.517450E-06 -1.049652E-02  2.639607E-02 -3.284755E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.7302E-13 -3.2318E-14 -1.0193E-14  4.6055E-15  7.3006E-14 -7.2251E-14
 -3.2318E-14  7.6656E-14  2.3947E-14 -2.9220E-14  8.3118E-14  5.0460E-13
 -1.0193E-14  2.3947E-14  1.0099E-13 -3.4428E-14  2.1313E-14  1.7673E-13
  4.6055E-15 -2.9220E-14 -3.4428E-14  2.0258E-14 -3.4110E-14 -2.1442E-13
  7.3006E-14  8.3118E-14  2.1313E-14 -3.4110E-14  1.8615E-13  5.9660E-13
 -7.2251E-14  5.0460E-13  1.7673E-13 -2.1442E-13  5.9660E-13  3.7018E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    8.117090  113.727876    0.958039    0.035200   -0.246406  2456232.044698
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456232.5000  =  2012/11/01
Mean Anomaly:          331.71637 +/-     0.008
Argument of Peri:      202.75603 +/-     0.014
Long of Asc Node:      312.26229 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            22.50297 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.22510167 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     46.65919975 +/-    0.0038
Time of Perihelion: 2465378.6229 +/-      13.5
Perihelion:          36.15613585 +/-    0.0045
Aphelion:            57.16226365 +/-    0.0058
Period (y)              318.7235 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -14.31373072 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y           34.94999587 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z            5.34892118 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00249667 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00129329 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00112579 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   38.14449907 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     37.88452620 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  6.78

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BN518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BN518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2012 10  31.54392  07 48 46.438  +29 20 37.66  22.6G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2012 11  28.49464  07 47 43.312  +29 25 52.39  23.1G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2012 12  23.56961  07 45 42.659  +29 31 20.29  22.4w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2012 12  23.58407  07 45 42.560  +29 31 20.51  22.5w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2012 12  23.59845  07 45 42.472  +29 31 20.73  22.6w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2013 01  03.55567  07 44 37.766  +29 33 26.86  22.9G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2013 01  16.50932  07 43 17.471  +29 35 24.77  22.2w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2013 01  16.52380  07 43 17.385  +29 35 24.89  22.4w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2013 01  16.53830  07 43 17.299  +29 35 25.00  22.3w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2014 02  20.23844  07 46 38.758  +28 44 03.29  23.3G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2014 10  01.60489  08 00 51.006  +27 32 02.08  22.7G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2014 12  26.53005  07 58 37.604  +27 42 53.07  23.2G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2014 12  26.54235  07 58 37.558  +27 42 52.90  22.3G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2014 12  26.55472  07 58 37.485  +27 42 53.11  22.6G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2014 12  26.56707  07 58 37.403  +27 42 53.07  22.0G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2015 01  18.29709  07 56 21.788  +27 47 16.83  22.4w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  18.31035  07 56 21.716  +27 47 16.91  22.6w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  18.32365  07 56 21.621  +27 47 17.15  22.7w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  18.33698  07 56 21.562  +27 47 17.40  22.7w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  20.33160  07 56 09.255  +27 47 35.95  22.3w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  20.34351  07 56 09.181  +27 47 36.14  22.2w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  20.35545  07 56 09.108  +27 47 36.22  22.2w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  20.36742  07 56 09.028  +27 47 36.38  22.2w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  22.29567  07 55 57.180  +27 47 53.39  22.5w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  22.30754  07 55 57.102  +27 47 53.49  22.3w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  22.31944  07 55 57.030  +27 47 53.56  22.4w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  22.33135  07 55 56.962  +27 47 53.70  22.2w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  24.38903  07 55 44.337  +27 48 10.61  22.1G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2015 01  27.51201  07 55 25.346  +27 48 34.48  22.7w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  27.52364  07 55 25.277  +27 48 34.64  22.3w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  27.53527  07 55 25.213  +27 48 34.49  22.7w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  27.54694  07 55 25.134  +27 48 34.87  22.5w 15BN518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  28.33346  07 55 20.382  +27 48 40.59  22.2G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2015 05  18.27438  07 52 40.942  +27 28 04.81  23.1G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2015 05  19.25912  07 52 45.334  +27 27 39.32  22.6G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2015 12  03.50994  08 06 54.368  +26 40 59.86  22.8G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2015 12  04.46153  08 06 50.830  +26 41 11.54  22.3G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 01  14.50764  08 03 16.891  +26 50 02.10  22.4G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 01  14.52119  08 03 16.795  +26 50 02.15  22.3G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 01  14.53472  08 03 16.718  +26 50 02.48  22.0G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 01  14.54840  08 03 16.629  +26 50 02.61  22.3G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  04.30758  08 01 11.081  +26 53 11.74  22.1G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  04.33174  08 01 10.992  +26 53 11.80  22.0G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  09.27113  08 00 42.673  +26 53 40.11  22.4G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  09.28532  08 00 42.601  +26 53 40.55  22.4G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  09.31386  08 00 42.427  +26 53 40.31  22.8G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 03  13.23659  07 58 14.895  +26 53 14.52  22.1G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 03  13.24817  07 58 14.834  +26 53 14.65  22.4G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 03  13.25971  07 58 14.808  +26 53 14.32  22.9G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 03  13.27131  07 58 14.773  +26 53 14.43  22.9G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 03  31.28439  07 57 37.600  +26 50 13.35  22.3G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  05.50934  08 10 32.153  +25 50 11.75  22.8G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  06.31637  08 10 27.468  +25 50 22.36  22.8G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  18.63498  08 09 13.560  +25 52 55.73  22.7G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  29.34351  08 08 08.687  +25 54 47.55  22.2G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  29.35562  08 08 08.616  +25 54 47.66  22.9G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  29.36766  08 08 08.532  +25 54 47.62  22.3G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  29.37966  08 08 08.450  +25 54 47.76  22.5G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 02  14.42612  08 06 36.635  +25 56 40.48  22.9G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 02  14.43886  08 06 36.595  +25 56 40.37  22.9G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 02  14.45155  08 06 36.525  +25 56 40.81  22.2G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 02  14.46432  08 06 36.434  +25 56 40.60  22.7G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 02  21.28595  08 06 01.351  +25 57 04.56  22.6G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 02  21.29759  08 06 01.304  +25 57 04.43  22.8G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 02  21.30930  08 06 01.239  +25 57 04.54  22.6G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 02  21.32106  08 06 01.160  +25 57 04.71  22.5G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  12.50678  08 18 56.678  +24 45 07.52  22.4G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  13.47097  08 18 52.592  +24 45 19.31  22.2G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  13.48291  08 18 52.541  +24 45 19.67  22.4G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  13.49485  08 18 52.496  +24 45 19.77  22.3G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  13.50681  08 18 52.448  +24 45 20.03  22.4G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  20.47350  08 18 20.552  +24 46 51.07  22.5R 15BN518   G37  C~2Uxw      
2017 12  20.51451  08 18 20.346  +24 46 51.59        15BN518   G37  C~2Uxw      
2018 01  11.55339  08 16 19.876  +24 51 53.92  21.5G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  11.56501  08 16 19.804  +24 51 53.92  21.7G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  11.57667  08 16 19.745  +24 51 53.88  22.2G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  11.58830  08 16 19.687  +24 51 54.12  21.9G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  13.40019  08 16 08.917  +24 52 18.57  20.2G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  13.43549  08 16 08.709  +24 52 18.44  22.2G 15BN518   F51  C~2rYJ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.16
  2   0.0765      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.35
  3   0.1452      0.00     0.27       0.00    -0.09
  4   0.1452      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.04
  5   0.1453      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.00
  6   0.1753      0.00    -0.18       0.00     0.01
  7   0.2107      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.02
  8   0.2108      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.00
  9   0.2108      0.00     0.27       0.00     0.01
 10   1.3051      0.00    -0.28       0.00    -0.15
 11   1.9167      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.13
 12   2.1519      0.00    -0.20       0.00     0.29
 13   2.1519      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.03
 14   2.1520      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.02
 15   2.1520      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.18
 16   2.2142      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.11
 17   2.2143      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.16
 18   2.2143      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.06
 19   2.2144      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.06
 20   2.2198      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.03
 21   2.2198      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.11
 22   2.2199      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.07
 23   2.2199      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.12
 24   2.2252      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.14
 25   2.2252      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.13
 26   2.2253      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.09
 27   2.2253      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.13
 28   2.2309      0.00    -0.22       0.00    -0.07
 29   2.2395      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.05
 30   2.2395      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.13
 31   2.2395      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.10
 32   2.2396      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.20
 33   2.2417      0.00    -0.30       0.00     0.35
 34   2.5427      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.31
 35   2.5454      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.18
 36   3.0882      0.00     0.20       0.00    -0.19
 37   3.0908      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.11
 38   3.2032      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.00
 39   3.2032      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.10
 40   3.2033      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.08
 41   3.2033      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.06
 42   3.2601      0.00    -0.72       0.00    -0.29
 43   3.2602      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.40
 44   3.2737      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.17
 45   3.2738      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.19
 46   3.2738      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.20
 47   3.3640      0.00     0.31       0.00    -0.16
 48   3.3640      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.05
 49   3.3640      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.21
 50   3.3641      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.02
 51   3.4134      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.21
 52   4.1806      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.08
 53   4.1828      0.00     0.29       0.00    -0.07
 54   4.2165      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.18
 55   4.2459      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.09
 56   4.2459      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.08
 57   4.2459      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.07
 58   4.2460      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.04
 59   4.2899      0.00    -0.38       0.00    -0.04
 60   4.2899      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.20
 61   4.2900      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.18
 62   4.2900      0.00    -0.27       0.00    -0.08
 63   4.3087      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.06
 64   4.3087      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.10
 65   4.3087      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.02
 66   4.3088      0.00    -0.25       0.00     0.12
 67   5.1142      0.00    -0.30       0.00     0.18
 68   5.1168      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.16
 69   5.1169      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.05
 70   5.1169      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.00
 71   5.1169      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.10
 72   5.1360      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.12
 73   5.1361      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.10
 74   5.1965      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.21
 75   5.1965      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.05
 76   5.1965      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.14
 77   5.1966      0.00     0.25       0.00    -0.05
 78   5.2015      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.36
 79   5.2016      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.24

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BN518    quality flag:2

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATNEAR  SCATEXTD

axisobj        46.633    46.633    46.633
ecceobj         0.223     0.223     0.223
incobj         22.529    22.529    22.529
qmin           34.947    34.950    34.968
qmax           58.574    58.562    58.436
amean          46.474    46.487    46.463
amin           46.053    46.061    46.042
amax           46.976    47.018    46.967
emean           0.229     0.229     0.227
emin            0.211     0.211     0.210
emax            0.247     0.247     0.245
imean          23.746    23.753    23.788
imin           23.220    23.216    23.259
imax           24.308    24.279    24.308
excite_mean     0.463     0.463     0.463
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.861     2.861     2.861

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       180.9     180.8     180.5
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0