Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BL518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BL518   
# Created Tue Apr 23 01:10:34 2019
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   61 observations of   61
# Arc:   5.95y
# First observation: 2011/03/25
#  Last observation: 2017/03/05
# Chi-squared of fit:    39.41 DOF:  116 RMS:  0.14
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.47    0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.868337E-05  3.592581E-02 -3.374217E-06 -6.806940E-03  3.026813E-02 -1.766102E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  4.4842E-13 -2.2827E-13 -3.8689E-14  3.1958E-14 -9.9426E-14 -7.4598E-13
 -2.2827E-13  1.4803E-13  2.9293E-14 -2.4448E-14  8.2016E-14  5.7062E-13
 -3.8689E-14  2.9293E-14  2.2463E-13 -5.8647E-14  1.5467E-14  1.2456E-13
  3.1958E-14 -2.4448E-14 -5.8647E-14  1.9114E-14 -1.5986E-14 -1.0484E-13
 -9.9426E-14  8.2016E-14  1.5467E-14 -1.5986E-14  1.2594E-13  3.7245E-13
 -7.4598E-13  5.7062E-13  1.2456E-13 -1.0484E-13  3.7245E-13  2.4468E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -11.380843  179.834501   -0.075929   -0.197032   -0.978712  2455645.877786
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455646.5000  =  2011/03/26
Mean Anomaly:          352.57343 +/-     0.007
Argument of Peri:      239.48984 +/-     0.012
Long of Asc Node:      314.55736 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            15.33568 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.25969600 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     45.70083742 +/-    0.0027
Time of Perihelion: 2457974.4321 +/-       9.9
Perihelion:          33.83251252 +/-    0.0026
Aphelion:            57.56916232 +/-    0.0038
Period (y)              308.9544 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -33.38275757 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Y            0.01968807 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z           -6.51947840 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00026716 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00324440 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00057206 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   34.01344566 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     33.03811112 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  6.89

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BL518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BL518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2011 03  25.37702  11 41 05.129  -10 21 54.35  22.2G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2011 03  25.38866  11 41 05.061  -10 21 53.91  22.0G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2012 01  08.59972  11 53 21.876  -11 45 16.63  22.6G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2012 03  13.40492  11 49 10.194  -11 38 41.03  21.6G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2012 04  13.38688  11 46 24.089  -11 21 31.00  21.9G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2013 03  04.49290  11 57 08.242  -12 52 57.93  21.8r 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 03  04.50390  11 57 08.196  -12 52 57.60  22.0r 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 03  04.51600  11 57 08.121  -12 52 57.26  21.8i 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  27.08606  12 02 17.46   -13 52 46.7   22.5V 15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.16058  12 02 17.04   -13 52 44.3         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.21901  12 02 16.71   -13 52 42.4         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.29354  12 02 16.28   -13 52 40.1         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.30139  12 02 16.25   -13 52 39.7         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.31543  12 02 16.13   -13 52 38.9         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.32794  12 02 16.09   -13 52 38.9         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 05  25.27911  11 58 12.903  -13 18 37.45  21.9w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  25.29124  11 58 12.874  -13 18 37.15  22.3w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  25.30333  11 58 12.863  -13 18 36.76  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  25.31541  11 58 12.825  -13 18 36.56  22.0w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 06  02.26356  11 58 02.177  -13 15 04.78  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 06  02.27568  11 58 02.169  -13 15 04.55  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 06  02.28777  11 58 02.145  -13 15 04.04  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 06  02.29986  11 58 02.132  -13 15 03.77  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  20.59385  12 14 22.813  -15 13 26.43  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  20.60517  12 14 22.787  -15 13 26.66  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  20.61642  12 14 22.778  -15 13 26.76  22.5w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  20.62768  12 14 22.749  -15 13 26.86  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  22.60520  12 14 19.000  -15 13 56.78  22.2G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2015 01  22.61646  12 14 18.971  -15 13 57.02  22.0G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2015 01  22.62777  12 14 18.961  -15 13 57.01  22.0G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2015 01  22.63904  12 14 18.927  -15 13 57.36  22.4G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2015 02  25.51745  12 12 17.529  -15 13 58.22  22.3w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.52840  12 12 17.469  -15 13 58.25  22.0w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.53936  12 12 17.419  -15 13 58.12  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.47660  12 10 14.681  -15 05 47.02  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.48718  12 10 14.609  -15 05 46.69  22.5w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.49774  12 10 14.555  -15 05 46.46  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.51041  12 10 14.477  -15 05 45.88  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.42909  12 10 09.303  -15 05 19.62  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.43962  12 10 09.245  -15 05 19.26  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.45018  12 10 09.180  -15 05 19.09  22.3w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.46070  12 10 09.137  -15 05 18.78  22.3w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 04  25.37467  12 07 04.033  -14 45 12.85  22.1G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2015 05  18.32461  12 05 39.854  -14 31 32.49  22.5w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 05  18.33769  12 05 39.811  -14 31 31.75  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 05  18.35076  12 05 39.762  -14 31 31.28  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 05  18.36388  12 05 39.732  -14 31 30.76  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 05  19.27810  12 05 37.342  -14 31 00.86  22.4G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2015 05  19.29035  12 05 37.278  -14 31 00.46  21.7G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2016 01  16.62078  12 21 45.739  -16 18 58.57  22.1G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2016 02  12.54050  12 20 37.902  -16 23 34.67  22.2G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2016 02  12.55147  12 20 37.851  -16 23 34.54  22.5G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2016 02  12.56245  12 20 37.795  -16 23 34.57  23.2G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2016 03  03.45105  12 19 07.411  -16 20 32.40  21.7G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2016 03  03.46223  12 19 07.356  -16 20 32.21  22.2G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2016 03  03.47330  12 19 07.302  -16 20 31.96  21.8G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2016 03  03.48442  12 19 07.227  -16 20 31.97  22.0G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2017 03  05.47565  12 26 27.294  -17 27 31.20  22.5G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2017 03  05.48700  12 26 27.205  -17 27 30.94  22.1G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2017 03  05.49835  12 26 27.151  -17 27 30.57  22.4G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      
2017 03  05.50972  12 26 27.090  -17 27 30.57  21.8G 15BL518   F51  C~2r7a      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.04
  2   0.0000      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.02
  3   0.7918      0.00    -0.31       0.00    -0.19
  4   0.9693      0.00     0.24       0.00    -0.35
  5   1.0541      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.03
  6   1.9442      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.07
  7   1.9442      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.15
  8   1.9443      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.23
  9   3.0054      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.08
 10   3.0056      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.07
 11   3.0057      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.05
 12   3.0059      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.16
 13   3.0060      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.02
 14   3.0060      0.00    -0.47       0.00     0.32
 15   3.0060      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.08
 16   3.1674      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.03
 17   3.1675      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.02
 18   3.1675      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.02
 19   3.1675      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.12
 20   3.1893      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.00
 21   3.1893      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.07
 22   3.1894      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.15
 23   3.1894      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.12
 24   3.8254      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.09
 25   3.8254      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.04
 26   3.8254      0.00     0.29       0.00     0.12
 27   3.8255      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.19
 28   3.8309      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.01
 29   3.8309      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.07
 30   3.8309      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.10
 31   3.8310      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.09
 32   3.9237      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.04
 33   3.9238      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.14
 34   3.9238      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.16
 35   3.9866      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.01
 36   3.9866      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.02
 37   3.9866      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.05
 38   3.9867      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.17
 39   3.9892      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.22
 40   3.9892      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.28
 41   3.9892      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.14
 42   3.9893      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.15
 43   4.0849      0.00    -0.33       0.00    -0.07
 44   4.1477      0.00     0.27       0.00    -0.33
 45   4.1477      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.03
 46   4.1478      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.01
 47   4.1478      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.09
 48   4.1503      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.00
 49   4.1503      0.00    -0.32       0.00     0.00
 50   4.8138      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.06
 51   4.8875      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.22
 52   4.8875      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.11
 53   4.8876      0.00    -0.23       0.00    -0.15
 54   4.9420      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.00
 55   4.9421      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.00
 56   4.9421      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.06
 57   4.9421      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.13
 58   5.9469      0.00     0.23       0.00    -0.12
 59   5.9469      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.05
 60   5.9469      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.14
 61   5.9470      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.05

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BL518    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        45.707    45.707    45.707
ecceobj         0.259     0.259     0.259
incobj         15.332    15.332    15.332
qmin           33.248    33.158    33.260
qmax           60.900    60.592    59.350
amean          46.550    46.282    46.007
amin           45.580    45.545    45.551
amax           47.457    47.195    46.564
emean           0.265     0.258     0.255
emin            0.242     0.236     0.239
emax            0.287     0.284     0.276
imean          16.927    17.100    17.113
imin           15.913    15.900    16.471
imax           17.890    18.009    17.864
excite_mean     0.394     0.392     0.389
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.940     2.939     2.939

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       187.1     184.7     180.5
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0