Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BK518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BK518   
# Created Thu Dec  9 02:13:07 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     98 observations of     98
# Arc:   3.09y
# First observation: 2014/02/24
#  Last observation: 2017/03/29
# Chi-squared of fit:    86.43 DOF:    190 RMS:  0.17
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.57    0.46
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  4.563293E-05  4.546807E-01 -7.241492E-06 -5.482714E-02  1.599133E-01 -1.453764E-01
# Covariance matrix:
  4.5449E-07  6.7778E-06 -5.2658E-08  4.8498E-06 -3.5127E-06  1.9832E-05
  6.7778E-06  1.1922E-04 -7.8531E-07  7.2177E-05 -5.2385E-05  2.9564E-04
 -5.2658E-08 -7.8531E-07  6.1015E-09 -5.6211E-07  4.0699E-07 -2.2978E-06
  4.8498E-06  7.2177E-05 -5.6211E-07  6.8791E-05 -3.7484E-05  2.1165E-04
 -3.5127E-06 -5.2385E-05  4.0699E-07 -3.7484E-05  2.7150E-05 -1.5328E-04
  1.9832E-05  2.9564E-04 -2.2978E-06  2.1165E-04 -1.5328E-04  8.6542E-04
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -3.663904   84.759863   -0.932192   -0.020729   -0.325520  2456712.799628
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456712.5000  =  2014/02/24
Mean Anomaly:          352.90161 +/-     0.030
Argument of Peri:      237.16560 +/-     0.027
Long of Asc Node:      243.46919 +/-     0.028
Inclination:             6.99942 +/-     0.007
Eccentricity:         0.54153564 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     13.91860128 +/-    0.0001
Time of Perihelion: 2457086.4805 +/-       1.6
Perihelion:           6.38118265 +/-    0.0002
Aphelion:            21.45601990 +/-    0.0003
Period (y)               51.9280 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -0.33014356 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y            6.62663614 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z           -0.39967395 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00799010 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00182520 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00077758 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO    6.64693065 +/-    0.0002
Geocenter to KBO      6.25352897 +/-    0.0002
# Hcoef: 14.20

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BK518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BK518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 02  24.29885  05 37 46.896  +19 40 27.86  22.6G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 02  24.31139  05 37 46.958  +19 40 27.34  22.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 02  24.32390  05 37 46.998  +19 40 27.46  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 02  24.33647  05 37 47.062  +19 40 27.59  22.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 10  28.58502  08 02 54.171  +15 02 08.04  23.5G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 10  28.59692  08 02 54.318  +15 02 06.78  22.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 10  28.60882  08 02 54.467  +15 02 05.69  22.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 10  28.62075  08 02 54.625  +15 02 03.93  22.8G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 11  29.50184  08 04 54.367  +14 16 20.45  22.7G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 11  29.51444  08 04 54.295  +14 16 19.68  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 11  29.52703  08 04 54.211  +14 16 18.84  23.1G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 11  29.53964  08 04 54.119  +14 16 18.35  22.8G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 12  17.62186  08 01 29.603  +14 06 08.02  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 12  17.63090  08 01 29.466  +14 06 08.01  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 12  17.63997  08 01 29.337  +14 06 07.02  21.7G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2014 12  17.64904  08 01 29.169  +14 06 07.36  22.6G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 01  21.33388  07 49 08.705  +14 17 10.02  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 01  21.34638  07 49 08.404  +14 17 10.34  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 01  21.35888  07 49 08.115  +14 17 10.88  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 01  21.37140  07 49 07.806  +14 17 11.61  21.5G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 01  21.45624  07 49 05.768  +14 17 15.35  21.5w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  21.46908  07 49 05.465  +14 17 15.91  21.9w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  21.48209  07 49 05.134  +14 17 16.55  21.9w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  21.49485  07 49 04.841  +14 17 17.11  21.9w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  18.25283  07 39 45.376  +14 41 47.49  22.0w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  18.26478  07 39 45.199  +14 41 48.22  22.0w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  18.27684  07 39 44.998  +14 41 48.86  22.0w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  19.24233  07 39 30.806  +14 42 41.71  22.2w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  19.25435  07 39 30.630  +14 42 42.60  22.1w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  19.26639  07 39 30.451  +14 42 43.06  22.1w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  19.27850  07 39 30.263  +14 42 43.73  22.5w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  18.29823  07 36 28.112  +15 03 29.71  22.4w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  18.31070  07 36 28.159  +15 03 30.57  22.6w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  18.32307  07 36 28.157  +15 03 30.65  22.7w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  18.33557  07 36 28.184  +15 03 31.18  22.7w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  19.31474  07 36 30.011  +15 04 03.41  22.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 12  09.56908  09 57 48.250  +04 44 26.51  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 12  09.58199  09 57 48.272  +04 44 25.26  22.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 12  09.59440  09 57 48.324  +04 44 23.96  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2015 12  09.60685  09 57 48.373  +04 44 22.87  23.2G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  07.45620  09 55 53.875  +04 20 33.02  21.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  07.46719  09 55 53.711  +04 20 33.05  21.6G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  07.47814  09 55 53.581  +04 20 32.65  22.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  16.51619  09 53 49.113  +04 23 12.13  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  16.52741  09 53 48.949  +04 23 12.39  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  16.53860  09 53 48.752  +04 23 12.69  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  16.54979  09 53 48.590  +04 23 13.02  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  29.44285  09 49 58.006  +04 34 40.32  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  29.44350  09 49 58.004  +04 34 40.02  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  29.45505  09 49 57.753  +04 34 40.37  22.1G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  29.45579  09 49 57.731  +04 34 41.01  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  29.46714  09 49 57.524  +04 34 41.32  22.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  29.46778  09 49 57.485  +04 34 41.77  21.5G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 01  29.47916  09 49 57.261  +04 34 42.21  22.5G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  05.44522  09 47 34.948  +04 44 07.74  21.6G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  05.45813  09 47 34.671  +04 44 08.82  21.8G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  05.47098  09 47 34.395  +04 44 09.90  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  05.48388  09 47 34.116  +04 44 11.11  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  06.43177  09 47 14.163  +04 45 37.07  21.6G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  06.44364  09 47 13.915  +04 45 38.21  22.1G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  06.45556  09 47 13.665  +04 45 39.23  22.2G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  06.46754  09 47 13.413  +04 45 40.33  22.2G 15BK518   F51  C~36pj      
2016 02  14.38503  09 44 24.112  +04 58 48.09  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 02  14.38632  09 44 24.084  +04 58 47.95  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 02  14.39809  09 44 23.836  +04 58 48.83  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 02  14.39938  09 44 23.801  +04 58 49.37  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 02  14.42476  09 44 23.227  +04 58 51.92  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 02  14.42607  09 44 23.235  +04 58 52.22  21.7G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  05.36887  09 37 38.809  +05 37 22.53  22.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  05.38102  09 37 38.583  +05 37 24.19  22.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  05.39312  09 37 38.343  +05 37 25.62  22.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  13.29032  09 35 25.837  +05 52 58.47  22.7G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  13.30340  09 35 25.628  +05 53 00.32  22.7G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  13.31515  09 35 25.446  +05 53 01.47  21.7G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  13.31580  09 35 25.435  +05 53 01.34  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  13.32758  09 35 25.236  +05 53 03.01  22.1G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 03  13.32822  09 35 25.218  +05 53 03.08  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 04  25.25479  09 32 04.302  +06 50 14.45  22.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 04  25.26704  09 32 04.341  +06 50 15.01  22.5G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2016 04  25.27875  09 32 04.436  +06 50 15.26  22.8G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 01  26.54099  11 30 35.246  -04 51 50.79  23.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 01  26.55296  11 30 35.100  -04 51 50.78  22.5G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 01  26.56493  11 30 35.017  -04 51 50.69  23.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 01  26.57694  11 30 34.879  -04 51 50.37  22.7G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 02  03.57056  11 29 06.556  -04 47 52.39  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 02  03.58176  11 29 06.440  -04 47 51.84  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 02  03.59298  11 29 06.259  -04 47 51.35  23.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 02  03.60421  11 29 06.128  -04 47 50.77  22.4G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 02  22.46235  11 24 08.462  -04 24 23.61  22.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 02  25.52347  11 23 11.652  -04 18 58.83  21.9G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 03  19.32196  11 16 09.428  -03 32 02.76  23.0G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 03  19.33396  11 16 09.205  -03 32 01.26  22.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 03  19.34598  11 16 08.966  -03 31 59.51  22.5G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 03  19.35795  11 16 08.723  -03 31 58.05  22.7G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 03  29.34338  11 13 08.413  -03 08 10.53  22.8G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 03  29.35590  11 13 08.209  -03 08 08.90  23.1G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 03  29.36836  11 13 07.994  -03 08 07.24  22.5G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      
2017 03  29.38090  11 13 07.751  -03 08 05.71  23.3G 15BK518   F51  C~36pk      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.37
     2   0.0000      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.21
     3   0.0001      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.14
     4   0.0001      0.00     0.24       0.00    -0.07
     5   0.6743      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.09
     6   0.6743      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.00
     7   0.6744      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.25
     8   0.6744      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.15
     9   0.7617      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.06
    10   0.7617      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.05
    11   0.7617      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.22
    12   0.7618      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.04
    13   0.8113      0.00    -0.24       0.00     0.15
    14   0.8113      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.28
    15   0.8113      0.00     0.26       0.00    -0.57
    16   0.8114      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.10
    17   0.9063      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.22
    18   0.9064      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.04
    19   0.9064      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.07
    20   0.9064      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.08
    21   0.9067      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.01
    22   0.9067      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.03
    23   0.9067      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.04
    24   0.9068      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.03
    25   0.9828      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.04
    26   0.9828      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.10
    27   0.9828      0.00    -0.22       0.00     0.06
    28   0.9855      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.00
    29   0.9855      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.21
    30   0.9855      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.00
    31   0.9856      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.00
    32   1.0595      0.00    -0.28       0.00    -0.12
    33   1.0596      0.00     0.24       0.00     0.33
    34   1.0596      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.01
    35   1.0596      0.00     0.25       0.00     0.13
    36   1.0623      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.00
    37   1.7886      0.00     0.29       0.00    -0.03
    38   1.7886      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.00
    39   1.7886      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.06
    40   1.7887      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.08
    41   1.8676      0.00     0.37       0.00     0.21
    42   1.8677      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.22
    43   1.8677      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.20
    44   1.8924      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.23
    45   1.8925      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.12
    46   1.8925      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.05
    47   1.8925      0.00     0.27       0.00     0.01
    48   1.9278      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.46
    49   1.9278      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.12
    50   1.9279      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.37
    51   1.9279      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.22
    52   1.9279      0.00     0.20       0.00    -0.29
    53   1.9279      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.11
    54   1.9279      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.27
    55   1.9470      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.12
    56   1.9470      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.04
    57   1.9471      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.03
    58   1.9471      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.02
    59   1.9497      0.00    -0.29       0.00     0.07
    60   1.9497      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.12
    61   1.9498      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.05
    62   1.9498      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.05
    63   1.9715      0.00    -0.18       0.00     0.18
    64   1.9715      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.10
    65   1.9715      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.47
    66   1.9715      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.07
    67   1.9716      0.00    -0.30       0.00    -0.22
    68   1.9716      0.00     0.25       0.00    -0.06
    69   2.0262      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.07
    70   2.0262      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.13
    71   2.0263      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.11
    72   2.0479      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.26
    73   2.0479      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.08
    74   2.0480      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.14
    75   2.0480      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.34
    76   2.0480      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.04
    77   2.0480      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.04
    78   2.1655      0.00     0.27       0.00    -0.28
    79   2.1656      0.00    -0.32       0.00    -0.09
    80   2.1656      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.20
    81   2.9219      0.00     0.22       0.00     0.15
    82   2.9220      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.02
    83   2.9220      0.00     0.32       0.00    -0.12
    84   2.9220      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.02
    85   2.9439      0.00    -0.20       0.00     0.01
    86   2.9440      0.00     0.28       0.00     0.06
    87   2.9440      0.00    -0.22       0.00     0.06
    88   2.9440      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.14
    89   2.9957      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.18
    90   3.0040      0.00    -0.26       0.00     0.05
    91   3.0637      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.29
    92   3.0638      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.09
    93   3.0638      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.14
    94   3.0638      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.09
    95   3.0912      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.16
    96   3.0912      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.00
    97   3.0912      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.11
    98   3.0913      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.37

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BK518    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        13.660    13.660    13.660
ecceobj         0.529     0.529     0.530
incobj          7.011     7.011     7.011
qmin            6.401     6.412     6.335
qmax           23.154    22.570    22.965
amean          14.332    14.076    14.362
amin           13.660    13.660    13.660
amax           14.912    14.491    14.682
emean           0.545     0.544     0.553
emin            0.530     0.529     0.530
emax            0.562     0.558     0.565
imean           9.501     8.472     8.794
imin            8.223     8.223     8.223
imax           10.656     8.720     9.646
excite_mean     0.570     0.563     0.574
fracstop        0.000     0.000     0.000
cjmean          3.246     3.274     3.237

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       255.5     241.0     251.5
kozaiamp         18.3       4.4      16.0