Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BG568

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BG568   
# Created Tue Nov 30 02:13:15 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     72 observations of     72
# Arc:   6.78y
# First observation: 2014/02/27
#  Last observation: 2020/12/10
# Chi-squared of fit:    35.03 DOF:    138 RMS:  0.12
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.42    0.42
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.679655E-05  2.927527E-02  9.345310E-06  1.636443E-02  2.676882E-02 -4.568883E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.9575E-13 -1.0819E-13  5.8373E-14 -4.5539E-14 -3.5901E-14 -3.8054E-13
 -1.0819E-13  7.9862E-14 -4.4865E-14  3.5452E-14  1.0968E-15  2.9615E-13
  5.8373E-14 -4.4865E-14  9.8926E-14 -4.1790E-14 -7.7528E-15 -1.8704E-13
 -4.5539E-14  3.5452E-14 -4.1790E-14  2.5057E-14  4.8945E-15  1.4718E-13
 -3.5901E-14  1.0968E-15 -7.7528E-15  4.8945E-15  7.2551E-14  4.1150E-14
 -3.8054E-13  2.9615E-13 -1.8704E-13  1.4718E-13  4.1150E-14  1.2296E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -23.708592  124.595851   -0.553068   -0.329297   -0.750118  2456715.920008
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456716.5000  =  2014/02/28
Mean Anomaly:          355.47075 +/-     0.002
Argument of Peri:      337.93103 +/-     0.006
Long of Asc Node:      160.33478 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            36.89471 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.55754697 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     84.47130869 +/-    0.0101
Time of Perihelion: 2460284.1820 +/-      50.2
Perihelion:          37.37458655 +/-    0.0060
Aphelion:           131.56803082 +/-    0.0162
Period (y)              776.3759 +/-      0.14
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -20.34285867 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y           28.51823742 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z          -15.02033816 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00260970 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00150124 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00172048 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   38.11481360 +/-    0.0002
Geocenter to KBO     37.35704119 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  6.68

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BG568. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BG568) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 02  27.41923  08 05 37.618  -03 57 44.25  21.5G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2014 04  05.25466  08 04 19.493  -03 29 04.47  22.2G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2014 11  23.62543  08 19 48.689  -03 49 57.48  23.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 01  23.38908  08 15 48.253  -03 46 33.25  22.5G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 01  23.40235  08 15 48.186  -03 46 32.95  21.8G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 01  23.41579  08 15 48.123  -03 46 32.54  22.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 01  23.42912  08 15 48.059  -03 46 32.21  22.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 01  25.37306  08 15 38.143  -03 45 40.66  21.8G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 01  25.39918  08 15 38.020  -03 45 40.13  21.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 02  19.35285  08 13 38.085  -03 31 22.84  22.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 02  19.36571  08 13 38.032  -03 31 22.33  22.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 02  19.37853  08 13 37.981  -03 31 21.77  22.2G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 02  19.39135  08 13 37.918  -03 31 21.21  22.5G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 02  20.36703  08 13 33.733  -03 30 41.45  22.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 02  20.37989  08 13 33.665  -03 30 41.03  21.8G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 12  07.58528  08 26 42.965  -03 20 36.42  22.5G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 12  07.59697  08 26 42.946  -03 20 36.67  22.9G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 12  07.60868  08 26 42.910  -03 20 36.57  22.2G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 12  07.62037  08 26 42.860  -03 20 36.55  22.6G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 12  08.54523  08 26 40.165  -03 20 44.42  22.6G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2015 12  08.55772  08 26 40.133  -03 20 44.83  21.6G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  11.47217  08 24 21.035  -03 18 10.35  22.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  11.48063  08 24 20.988  -03 18 10.12  22.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  11.48385  08 24 20.968  -03 18 10.12  22.7G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  11.49231  08 24 20.936  -03 18 09.80  22.3G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  11.49553  08 24 20.909  -03 18 09.77  22.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  11.50397  08 24 20.867  -03 18 09.63  22.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  11.50722  08 24 20.863  -03 18 09.51  22.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  12.43468  08 24 16.280  -03 17 53.37  22.5G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  12.44660  08 24 16.208  -03 17 53.20  22.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  12.45853  08 24 16.170  -03 17 52.96  22.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 01  12.47049  08 24 16.118  -03 17 52.73  22.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 03  02.31396  08 20 20.833  -02 50 24.24  22.6G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 03  02.32652  08 20 20.783  -02 50 23.89  22.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 03  02.33906  08 20 20.736  -02 50 23.10  22.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 03  02.35158  08 20 20.684  -02 50 22.75  22.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 03  06.26118  08 20 06.831  -02 47 28.06  22.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 03  06.28629  08 20 06.750  -02 47 27.01  22.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 03  10.24280  08 19 53.900  -02 44 26.98  23.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 03  10.26746  08 19 53.819  -02 44 25.83  23.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 04  11.24649  08 19 01.865  -02 19 57.37  23.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 04  11.25892  08 19 01.870  -02 19 57.18  21.8G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 04  11.27159  08 19 01.870  -02 19 56.66  22.5G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 04  11.28408  08 19 01.884  -02 19 56.06  22.8G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 11  07.60850  08 34 51.017  -02 39 26.82  22.6G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 11  07.61857  08 34 51.007  -02 39 26.74  23.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 11  07.62867  08 34 51.038  -02 39 27.43  22.2G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2016 11  07.63879  08 34 51.018  -02 39 27.90  22.6G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 01  31.36859  08 30 10.583  -02 36 38.41  22.0G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 01  31.38088  08 30 10.521  -02 36 38.11  21.8G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 01  31.39313  08 30 10.448  -02 36 37.66  22.2G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 01  31.40541  08 30 10.371  -02 36 37.11  23.1G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 10  31.63347  08 42 11.270  -02 03 33.16  22.7G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 11  24.61544  08 42 08.124  -02 12 12.15  22.3G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 11  24.62460  08 42 08.082  -02 12 12.51  22.7G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 11  24.63377  08 42 08.074  -02 12 12.68  22.3G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2017 11  24.64291  08 42 08.057  -02 12 13.03  23.9G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2018 01  14.43941  08 39 12.896  -02 10 30.28  22.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2018 01  14.45191  08 39 12.830  -02 10 30.29  22.6G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2018 01  14.46457  08 39 12.777  -02 10 29.85  21.9G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2018 01  14.47706  08 39 12.716  -02 10 29.71  22.3G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2018 01  15.42287  08 39 08.069  -02 10 10.30  22.3G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2018 01  15.43516  08 39 08.009  -02 10 10.01  22.3G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2018 01  15.44746  08 39 07.937  -02 10 09.73  22.3G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2018 01  15.45976  08 39 07.884  -02 10 09.58  22.4G 15BG568   F51  C~3471      
2020 01  29.44088  08 53 16.291  -00 56 31.55  22.0w 15BG568   F51  C~3cr1      
2020 01  29.45313  08 53 16.232  -00 56 31.20  22.2w 15BG568   F51  C~3cr1      
2020 01  29.46547  08 53 16.172  -00 56 30.88  22.1w 15BG568   F51  C~3cr1      
2020 12  10.58366  09 04 14.980  -00 33 47.03  22.1w 15BG568   F51  C~4NvL      
2020 12  10.59653  09 04 14.955  -00 33 47.16  22.3w 15BG568   F51  C~4NvL      
2020 12  10.60941  09 04 14.929  -00 33 46.83  22.4w 15BG568   F51  C~4NvL      
2020 12  10.62230  09 04 14.893  -00 33 46.96  22.1w 15BG568   F51  C~4NvL      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.04
     2   0.1008      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.09
     3   0.7370      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.18
     4   0.9034      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.01
     5   0.9034      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.05
     6   0.9035      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.01
     7   0.9035      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.00
     8   0.9088      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.27
     9   0.9089      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.09
    10   0.9772      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.04
    11   0.9773      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.05
    12   0.9773      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.01
    13   0.9773      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.02
    14   0.9800      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.09
    15   0.9800      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.20
    16   1.7746      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.06
    17   1.7746      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.21
    18   1.7746      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.01
    19   1.7747      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.11
    20   1.7772      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.11
    21   1.7772      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.42
    22   1.8701      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.12
    23   1.8701      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.03
    24   1.8701      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.09
    25   1.8702      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.09
    26   1.8702      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.06
    27   1.8702      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.06
    28   1.8702      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.12
    29   1.8727      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.03
    30   1.8728      0.00    -0.28       0.00    -0.08
    31   1.8728      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.05
    32   1.8728      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.04
    33   2.0093      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.09
    34   2.0093      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.11
    35   2.0094      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.12
    36   2.0094      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.08
    37   2.0201      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.03
    38   2.0202      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.11
    39   2.0310      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.02
    40   2.0311      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.04
    41   2.1186      0.00    -0.18       0.00     0.30
    42   2.1187      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.06
    43   2.1187      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.09
    44   2.1187      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.04
    45   2.6946      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.09
    46   2.6946      0.00    -0.21       0.00     0.42
    47   2.6946      0.00     0.24       0.00    -0.01
    48   2.6946      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.23
    49   2.9266      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.10
    50   2.9267      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.02
    51   2.9267      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.09
    52   2.9267      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.26
    53   3.6748      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.09
    54   3.7404      0.00     0.29       0.00     0.29
    55   3.7405      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.07
    56   3.7405      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.04
    57   3.7405      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.17
    58   3.8796      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.14
    59   3.8796      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.12
    60   3.8797      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.07
    61   3.8797      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.04
    62   3.8823      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.00
    63   3.8823      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.03
    64   3.8823      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.06
    65   3.8824      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.05
    66   5.9193      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.06
    67   5.9193      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.05
    68   5.9194      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.00
    69   6.7848      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.18
    70   6.7849      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.28
    71   6.7849      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.09
    72   6.7850      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BG568    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        83.978    83.977    83.979
ecceobj         0.554     0.554     0.554
incobj         36.950    36.950    36.950
qmin           35.082    35.445    35.625
qmax          133.767   133.813   133.932
amean          82.981    83.212    83.199
amin           81.719    81.809    81.886
amax           84.803    85.037    85.156
emean           0.557     0.556     0.554
emin            0.539     0.539     0.539
emax            0.577     0.574     0.573
imean          35.487    35.650    35.737
imin           34.628    34.978    35.050
imax           36.475    36.513    36.533
excite_mean     0.804     0.806     0.805
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.608     2.606     2.608

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       106.2     100.9      98.6
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0