Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BC519

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BC519   
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:15 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     80 observations of     80
# Arc:   9.88y
# First observation: 2011/01/25
#  Last observation: 2020/12/11
# Chi-squared of fit:    59.22 DOF:    154 RMS:  0.15
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.49    0.72
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.688908E-05  2.976303E-02 -6.530674E-07 -1.265450E-04  2.681545E-02 -9.334174E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.9824E-13 -9.5317E-14 -7.8425E-16  3.1523E-16 -1.7538E-14 -2.0372E-13
 -9.5317E-14  3.6092E-14  2.4854E-16 -1.2971E-16  1.7120E-14  8.7384E-14
 -7.8425E-16  2.4854E-16  1.0542E-13 -1.7191E-14 -5.5788E-16  5.2415E-16
  3.1523E-16 -1.2971E-16 -1.7191E-14  3.3373E-15 -4.6719E-17 -3.4177E-16
 -1.7538E-14  1.7120E-14 -5.5788E-16 -4.6719E-17  9.2635E-14  6.2572E-14
 -2.0372E-13  8.7384E-14  5.2415E-16 -3.4177E-16  6.2572E-14  2.3653E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.753631  113.603723   -0.195047   -0.029614   -0.967405  2455586.820786
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455586.5000  =  2011/01/25
Mean Anomaly:          333.89482 +/-     0.003
Argument of Peri:      324.56460 +/-     0.005
Long of Asc Node:      211.13825 +/-     0.004
Inclination:             1.72317 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.41578408 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     55.33938632 +/-    0.0042
Time of Perihelion: 2466490.2066 +/-      16.0
Perihelion:          32.33015042 +/-    0.0032
Aphelion:            78.34862221 +/-    0.0063
Period (y)              411.6799 +/-      0.05
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -15.48770861 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y           34.96393453 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z           -1.14124670 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00240402 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00208390 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00001626 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   38.25785646 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     37.29217461 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  6.72

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BC519. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BC519) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2011 01  25.32002  07 40 35.638  +19 38 54.94  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2011 01  29.34980  07 40 13.908  +19 39 49.81  21.8G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2012 01  26.49855  07 47 41.732  +19 20 42.91  22.9G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2012 02  01.53600  07 47 09.146  +19 22 11.44  22.1G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2012 04  09.25635  07 43 58.608  +19 32 36.96  22.1G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2012 05  08.27193  07 45 00.108  +19 31 19.46  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 01  17.47607  07 55 45.787  +18 58 41.80  22.3G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 02  10.40882  07 53 36.855  +19 04 51.92  22.3w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 02  10.42420  07 53 36.789  +19 04 52.10  22.3w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 02  10.43966  07 53 36.701  +19 04 52.59  22.5w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 02  10.45509  07 53 36.627  +19 04 52.55  22.2w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 12  31.55612  08 04 44.546  +18 32 43.96  22.1w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 12  31.57072  08 04 44.494  +18 32 44.00  22.4w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 12  31.58531  08 04 44.394  +18 32 44.40  22.4w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  26.39632  07 59 47.829  +18 47 41.85  22.5w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  26.42238  07 59 47.707  +18 47 42.46  22.2w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  26.43540  07 59 47.657  +18 47 42.22  22.5w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 10  28.58634  08 15 01.110  +18 03 10.11  22.6G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 01  16.52663  08 10 49.501  +18 13 48.96  22.3w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  16.53888  08 10 49.428  +18 13 49.24  22.3w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  16.55114  08 10 49.358  +18 13 49.56  22.4w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  16.56344  08 10 49.294  +18 13 49.66  22.4w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  16.28305  08 08 02.866  +18 22 43.65  22.1G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 02  16.29535  08 08 02.811  +18 22 43.42  23.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 02  17.28279  08 07 58.002  +18 22 59.71  23.0G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 02  17.29512  08 07 57.957  +18 22 59.96  22.7w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  17.30752  08 07 57.908  +18 23 00.33  22.4w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  17.31996  08 07 57.809  +18 23 00.59  22.6w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  16.37792  08 06 14.184  +18 29 10.58  22.4w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  16.39020  08 06 14.154  +18 29 10.58  22.6w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  16.40241  08 06 14.109  +18 29 10.90  22.7w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  17.34182  08 06 11.679  +18 29 20.56  22.7w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  17.35424  08 06 11.641  +18 29 20.74  22.5w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  17.36674  08 06 11.613  +18 29 21.10  22.4w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  17.37928  08 06 11.582  +18 29 20.95  22.2w 15BC519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 04  10.29593  08 05 40.704  +18 31 59.99  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  07.38714  08 19 17.613  +17 46 31.78  21.7G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  07.39960  08 19 17.568  +17 46 31.97  22.1G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  07.41203  08 19 17.502  +17 46 32.21  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  07.42452  08 19 17.425  +17 46 32.38  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  29.50892  08 17 14.361  +17 53 13.05  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  09.32322  08 16 15.121  +17 56 33.90  22.0G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  09.33552  08 16 15.034  +17 56 34.49  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  09.34776  08 16 14.966  +17 56 34.49  22.1G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  09.35993  08 16 14.898  +17 56 34.76  22.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  11.27991  08 16 04.778  +17 57 09.78  22.4G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  11.29157  08 16 04.711  +17 57 09.99  22.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  11.30348  08 16 04.646  +17 57 10.28  21.9G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  11.31512  08 16 04.589  +17 57 10.26  22.4G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 03  03.23622  08 14 27.259  +18 02 57.97  21.9G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 03  03.24788  08 14 27.210  +18 02 58.47  21.9G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 03  03.26137  08 14 27.166  +18 02 58.61  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 03  03.27304  08 14 27.111  +18 02 58.88  22.5G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 04  21.26176  08 13 12.703  +18 09 08.64  22.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 11  08.54969  08 30 02.070  +17 11 43.50  21.9G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 11  08.56198  08 30 02.046  +17 11 43.61  22.8G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 11  08.57431  08 30 02.072  +17 11 43.64  22.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 11  08.58672  08 30 02.070  +17 11 43.58  22.3G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 01  28.48652  08 24 57.866  +17 27 14.61  22.4G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 01  28.49939  08 24 57.792  +17 27 14.85  22.0G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 01  28.51233  08 24 57.721  +17 27 15.10  22.3G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 01  28.52527  08 24 57.646  +17 27 15.44  22.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  18.23777  08 23 06.323  +17 33 55.51  23.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  18.25022  08 23 06.257  +17 33 55.67  22.8G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  18.26265  08 23 06.189  +17 33 56.07  22.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  18.28046  08 23 06.093  +17 33 56.35  22.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  27.27840  08 22 23.873  +17 36 35.02  22.2G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 12  12.51073  08 36 39.190  +16 46 19.22  22.7G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 12  14.51444  08 36 32.022  +16 46 41.53  22.4G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 12  23.61921  08 35 55.163  +16 48 40.17  21.9G 15BC519   F51  C~2rYL      
2020 01  25.52270  08 48 55.972  +15 58 45.11  22.2w 15BC519   F51  C~3cqt      
2020 01  25.53613  08 48 55.905  +15 58 45.47  22.3w 15BC519   F51  C~3cqt      
2020 01  25.54955  08 48 55.830  +15 58 45.77  22.0w 15BC519   F51  C~3cqt      
2020 01  26.36497  08 48 51.228  +15 59 04.01  22.0w 15BC519   F51  C~3cqt      
2020 01  26.38961  08 48 51.099  +15 59 04.68  22.0w 15BC519   F51  C~3cqt      
2020 01  26.40213  08 48 51.025  +15 59 04.95  22.0w 15BC519   F51  C~3cqt      
2020 12  11.50217  09 00 20.050  +15 13 26.09  22.0w 15BC519   F51  C~4NvK      
2020 12  11.51314  09 00 20.010  +15 13 26.12  22.1w 15BC519   F51  C~4NvK      
2020 12  11.52415  09 00 19.975  +15 13 26.15  22.4w 15BC519   F51  C~4NvK      
2020 12  11.53514  09 00 19.961  +15 13 26.45  22.2w 15BC519   F51  C~4NvK      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.09
     2   0.0110      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.01
     3   1.0025      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.02
     4   1.0191      0.00    -0.28       0.00     0.46
     5   1.2045      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.72
     6   1.2839      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.25
     7   1.9799      0.00    -0.49       0.00    -0.24
     8   2.0454      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.12
     9   2.0455      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.16
    10   2.0455      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.10
    11   2.0455      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.16
    12   2.9329      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.01
    13   2.9329      0.00     0.26       0.00    -0.18
    14   2.9330      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.01
    15   3.0885      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.08
    16   3.0886      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.34
    17   3.0886      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.07
    18   3.7571      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.13
    19   3.9759      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.18
    20   3.9760      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.11
    21   3.9760      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.00
    22   3.9760      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.11
    23   4.0601      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.12
    24   4.0602      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.31
    25   4.0629      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.13
    26   4.0629      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.08
    27   4.0629      0.00     0.30       0.00     0.09
    28   4.0630      0.00    -0.26       0.00     0.14
    29   4.1371      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.11
    30   4.1371      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.02
    31   4.1371      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.17
    32   4.1397      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.06
    33   4.1397      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.12
    34   4.1398      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.35
    35   4.1398      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.08
    36   4.2053      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.01
    37   4.9502      0.00    -0.30       0.00     0.04
    38   4.9503      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.01
    39   4.9503      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.04
    40   4.9503      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.01
    41   5.0108      0.00    -0.28       0.00    -0.09
    42   5.0404      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.26
    43   5.0404      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.11
    44   5.0405      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.12
    45   5.0405      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.07
    46   5.0457      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.01
    47   5.0458      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.01
    48   5.0458      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.08
    49   5.0458      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.15
    50   5.1031      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.33
    51   5.1032      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.01
    52   5.1032      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.07
    53   5.1032      0.00    -0.18       0.00     0.03
    54   5.2373      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.07
    55   5.7884      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.20
    56   5.7885      0.00    -0.35       0.00    -0.06
    57   5.7885      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.00
    58   5.7885      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.03
    59   6.0100      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.06
    60   6.0101      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.07
    61   6.0101      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.07
    62   6.0101      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.01
    63   6.0669      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.12
    64   6.0669      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.19
    65   6.0669      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.02
    66   6.0670      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.07
    67   6.0916      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.17
    68   6.8807      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.08
    69   6.8862      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.11
    70   6.9112      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.03
    71   8.9999      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.02
    72   8.9999      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.09
    73   8.9999      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.09
    74   9.0022      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.07
    75   9.0022      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.18
    76   9.0023      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.17
    77   9.8787      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.05
    78   9.8787      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.03
    79   9.8787      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.11
    80   9.8788      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.08

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BC519    quality flag:3

Type:         5:2EEE    5:2EEE    5:2EEE

axisobj        55.624    55.623    55.624
ecceobj         0.417     0.417     0.417
incobj          1.721     1.721     1.721
qmin           31.693    31.701    31.692
qmax           80.877    80.820    80.674
amean          55.462    55.462    55.463
amin           54.649    54.666    54.651
amax           56.552    56.538    56.487
emean           0.418     0.418     0.418
emin            0.407     0.407     0.406
emax            0.430     0.429     0.429
imean           2.551     2.552     2.553
imin            2.398     2.411     2.413
imax            2.747     2.745     2.746
excite_mean     0.420     0.420     0.420
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.007     3.007     3.007

libcent 0       180.0     179.2     179.5
libamp  0       111.9     114.0     113.3
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       127.4     132.0     131.8
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0