Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BA519

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BA519   
# Created Sun Apr 21 01:10:02 2019
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   99 observations of   99
# Arc:  16.89y
# First observation: 2001/05/22
#  Last observation: 2018/04/12
# Chi-squared of fit:    82.71 DOF:  192 RMS:  0.16
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.79    0.55
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.826753E-05  3.951406E-02  2.591546E-06  1.844533E-03  3.226206E-02 -4.069060E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  7.1105E-13 -9.2311E-14  1.3208E-14 -2.8975E-15 -3.3853E-14 -6.3455E-14
 -9.2311E-14  1.5790E-14 -2.8721E-15  6.3270E-16  5.7274E-15  1.3822E-14
  1.3208E-14 -2.8721E-15  4.2675E-13 -3.0541E-14 -1.5368E-15 -2.9423E-15
 -2.8975E-15  6.3270E-16 -3.0541E-14  2.2518E-15  3.0052E-16  6.4625E-16
 -3.3853E-14  5.7274E-15 -1.5368E-15  3.0052E-16  2.6639E-14  7.0618E-15
 -6.3455E-14  1.3822E-14 -2.9423E-15  6.4625E-16  7.0618E-15  1.4143E-14
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.001450  171.619716   -0.958875    0.005910   -0.344375  2452052.465973
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2452052.5000  =  2001/05/23
Mean Anomaly:          345.55185 +/-     0.001
Argument of Peri:       43.34610 +/-     0.002
Long of Asc Node:      152.78990 +/-     0.001
Inclination:             2.81582 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.21623234 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     39.44885090 +/-    0.0011
Time of Perihelion: 2455684.6153 +/-       3.5
Perihelion:          30.91873355 +/-    0.0011
Aphelion:            47.97896826 +/-    0.0015
Period (y)              247.7763 +/-      0.01
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -31.13763744 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y            3.62313040 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z            0.54180342 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00015284 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00336590 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00015067 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   31.35244348 +/-    0.0002
Geocenter to KBO     30.99626329 +/-    0.0002
# Hcoef:  7.67

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BA519. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BA519) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2001 05  22.96523  11 30 47.62   +04 14 37.5   22.3R 15BA519   807  C~1vYC      
2001 05  23.06035  11 30 47.50   +04 14 39.0         15BA519   807  C~1vYC      
2011 03  13.45326  13 04 09.142  -04 41 16.51  22.3G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2011 03  13.46539  13 04 09.055  -04 41 16.01  22.4G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2011 04  12.37919  13 01 19.861  -04 22 56.78  23.0G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2011 04  12.39309  13 01 19.767  -04 22 56.32  22.3G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2011 06  24.25066  12 56 54.331  -03 57 28.98  21.1G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2012 04  13.41343  13 10 08.451  -05 11 50.88  21.5G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2012 04  28.36530  13 08 43.641  -05 03 12.29  22.3G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2012 06  07.27820  13 06 01.820  -04 47 53.66  23.3G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 04  10.41573  13 19 28.032  -06 03 20.32  22.6w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 04  10.42936  13 19 27.934  -06 03 19.62  22.1w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 04  10.45676  13 19 27.767  -06 03 18.55  22.5w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 04  11.38023  13 19 22.364  -06 02 45.00  21.8G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 04  11.39387  13 19 22.221  -06 02 44.62  22.5G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 04  11.40761  13 19 22.194  -06 02 44.14  22.4G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 04  11.42133  13 19 22.105  -06 02 43.75  22.6G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 04  19.47761  13 18 34.957  -05 57 55.40  21.8G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 04  22.39949  13 18 18.109  -05 56 13.82  22.1G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 05  03.36906  13 17 17.222  -05 50 11.34  22.2G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 05  03.38263  13 17 17.153  -05 50 10.76  22.2G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2013 05  03.39620  13 17 17.088  -05 50 10.47  22.3G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2014 01  10.62115  13 32 44.440  -07 23 15.29  22.2G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2014 02  28.50324  13 31 59.261  -07 14 40.84  22.3w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  28.51447  13 31 59.213  -07 14 40.70  22.6w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  28.52570  13 31 59.172  -07 14 40.23  22.7w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  28.53697  13 31 59.113  -07 14 39.81  22.6w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 05  04.35303  13 26 13.818  -06 38 47.83  23.1G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2014 05  30.32981  13 24 14.138  -06 27 43.37  22.4G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 01  24.64700  13 41 50.490  -08 10 12.46  22.5G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 01  26.62005  13 41 51.517  -08 10 07.02  22.7w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  26.63200  13 41 51.513  -08 10 07.33  22.7w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  26.64399  13 41 51.506  -08 10 07.14  22.4w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  17.60489  13 41 30.112  -08 06 08.06  22.6r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 02  17.64586  13 41 30.012  -08 06 07.30  22.6r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 02  20.63493  13 41 22.671  -08 05 10.62  22.5r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 03  18.58338  13 39 42.175  -07 53 47.18  22.4r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 03  18.63265  13 39 41.924  -07 53 45.64  22.4r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 03  20.58759  13 39 32.138  -07 52 43.18  22.4r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 03  21.51660  13 39 27.419  -07 52 13.38  22.9G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 03  22.45669  13 39 22.584  -07 51 42.51  22.8w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.48000  13 39 22.457  -07 51 41.42  22.5w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.49161  13 39 22.402  -07 51 41.26  22.5w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  29.52946  13 38 44.632  -07 47 45.20  22.5G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 04  11.52247  13 37 30.128  -07 40 11.77  22.4r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  13.38609  13 37 19.162  -07 39 06.05  22.4r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  13.44737  13 37 18.800  -07 39 04.02  22.3r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  13.45145  13 37 18.775  -07 39 03.84  22.4r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  13.45555  13 37 18.743  -07 39 03.59  22.3r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  13.52960  13 37 18.297  -07 39 01.00  22.3r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  19.49744  13 36 43.053  -07 35 32.38  22.2r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  19.54452  13 36 42.763  -07 35 30.85  22.2r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  19.55519  13 36 42.700  -07 35 30.40  22.3r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 04  20.42695  13 36 37.577  -07 35 00.39  22.4G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 04  21.40948  13 36 31.804  -07 34 25.89  22.3w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 04  21.43657  13 36 31.625  -07 34 25.19  22.2w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 04  21.45015  13 36 31.535  -07 34 24.61  22.4w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 05  06.40387  13 35 06.172  -07 26 13.95  22.4G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 05  07.36255  13 35 00.953  -07 25 44.39  23.8G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 05  18.33721  13 34 04.767  -07 20 33.18  22.4r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 05  24.31383  13 33 37.470  -07 18 06.07  23.4G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 06  04.31193  13 32 54.708  -07 14 25.63  23.5G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 06  20.28725  13 32 13.199  -07 11 15.67  22.6r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 06  20.32802  13 32 13.123  -07 11 15.44  22.6r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 06  22.33199  13 32 09.846  -07 11 03.51  22.5r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 07  14.28422  13 32 04.087  -07 11 55.76  22.6r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 07  20.27721  13 32 12.355  -07 13 08.22  22.6r 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2015 08  08.25869  13 33 05.940  -07 19 34.19  22.5G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  15.64917  13 50 26.414  -08 55 30.34  22.8G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  04.62240  13 50 43.204  -08 55 11.96  22.7w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 02  11.60562  13 50 37.217  -08 54 00.49  22.6w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 03  10.47628  13 49 18.178  -08 44 25.61  23.0G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 03  11.61299  13 49 13.286  -08 43 53.85  22.4w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 04  02.42096  13 47 23.010  -08 32 27.38  22.5G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 04  02.43288  13 47 22.949  -08 32 26.97  22.7G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 04  02.44483  13 47 22.883  -08 32 26.60  22.2G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 04  02.45680  13 47 22.812  -08 32 26.29  22.8G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 04  03.48172  13 47 17.009  -08 31 51.34  22.6w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 04  09.46287  13 46 42.536  -08 28 26.19  22.5w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 05  01.38069  13 44 33.842  -08 16 06.04  22.7G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 05  01.39236  13 44 33.783  -08 16 05.61  22.3G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 05  01.40405  13 44 33.704  -08 16 05.12  23.0G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 05  01.41571  13 44 33.674  -08 16 04.98  23.0G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 05  02.35180  13 44 28.299  -08 15 34.91  22.0w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 05  07.35515  13 44 00.247  -08 12 59.35  22.6w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 05  29.33555  13 42 13.209  -08 03 29.71  22.7w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 06  04.39796  13 41 49.986  -08 01 34.09  22.6w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 06  27.32960  13 40 55.038  -07 57 40.49  22.4w 15BA519   568  C~2lUy      
2016 07  07.31994  13 40 49.244  -07 57 47.83  22.7w 15BA519   568  C~2lUz      
2017 02  02.62993  13 59 36.735  -09 40 23.21  22.6G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  21.58974  13 59 14.929  -09 36 42.10  21.9G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 03  21.44759  13 57 32.364  -09 25 21.14  22.7G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 03  28.50538  13 56 56.317  -09 21 42.31  23.0G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 03  30.52059  13 56 45.512  -09 20 37.29        15BA519   568  C~2lUz      
2017 03  31.45585  13 56 40.430  -09 20 06.99  22.5w 15BA519   568  C~2lUz      
2017 04  05.48167  13 56 12.433  -09 17 21.64  21.9G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 05  16.32930  13 52 17.455  -08 55 33.82  22.3G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 05  24.26091  13 51 38.079  -08 52 09.94  22.6w 15BA519   568  C~2lUz      
2018 04  12.52751  14 04 39.435  -09 59 08.46  22.5G 15BA519   F51  C~2rYL      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.41
  2   0.0003      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.53
  3   9.8056      0.00     0.29       0.00    -0.18
  4   9.8056      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.10
  5   9.8875      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.27
  6   9.8876      0.00    -0.27       0.00    -0.32
  7  10.0870      0.00     0.41       0.00    -0.16
  8  10.8924      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.12
  9  10.9333      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.35
 10  11.0426      0.00    -0.44       0.00    -0.19
 11  11.8835      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.17
 12  11.8835      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.04
 13  11.8836      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.11
 14  11.8861      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.14
 15  11.8862      0.00    -0.79       0.00     0.03
 16  11.8862      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.01
 17  11.8863      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.10
 18  11.9083      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.02
 19  11.9163      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.21
 20  11.9463      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.05
 21  11.9464      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.21
 22  11.9464      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.07
 23  12.6370      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.18
 24  12.7708      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.20
 25  12.7708      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.05
 26  12.7709      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.23
 27  12.7709      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.36
 28  12.9484      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.15
 29  13.0195      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.22
 30  13.6747      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.06
 31  13.6801      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.33
 32  13.6801      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.02
 33  13.6802      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.13
 34  13.7403      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.01
 35  13.7404      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.01
 36  13.7486      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.04
 37  13.8196      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.02
 38  13.8198      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.01
 39  13.8251      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.00
 40  13.8277      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.26
 41  13.8302      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.05
 42  13.8303      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.28
 43  13.8303      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.06
 44  13.8496      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.06
 45  13.8852      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.00
 46  13.8903      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.13
 47  13.8904      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.00
 48  13.8904      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.04
 49  13.8905      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.14
 50  13.8907      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.12
 51  13.9070      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.02
 52  13.9071      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.09
 53  13.9072      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.02
 54  13.9095      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.18
 55  13.9122      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.41
 56  13.9123      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.18
 57  13.9123      0.00    -0.22       0.00     0.29
 58  13.9533      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.13
 59  13.9559      0.00    -0.24       0.00     0.06
 60  13.9860      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.03
 61  14.0023      0.00     0.37       0.00     0.12
 62  14.0324      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.16
 63  14.0762      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.03
 64  14.0763      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.07
 65  14.0818      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.00
 66  14.1419      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.03
 67  14.1583      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.02
 68  14.2102      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.28
 69  14.6494      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.21
 70  14.7041      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.01
 71  14.7232      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.02
 72  14.7995      0.00     0.30       0.00    -0.02
 73  14.8026      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.06
 74  14.8623      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.00
 75  14.8623      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.00
 76  14.8624      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.03
 77  14.8624      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.13
 78  14.8652      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.00
 79  14.8816      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.01
 80  14.9416      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.11
 81  14.9416      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.06
 82  14.9417      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.06
 83  14.9417      0.00     0.55       0.00    -0.18
 84  14.9442      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.01
 85  14.9579      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.01
 86  15.0181      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.03
 87  15.0347      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.01
 88  15.0975      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.01
 89  15.1249      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.04
 90  15.7007      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.03
 91  15.7526      0.00    -0.42       0.00    -0.40
 92  15.8288      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.01
 93  15.8482      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.27
 94  15.8537      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
 95  15.8562      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.03
 96  15.8700      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.04
 97  15.9818      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.09
 98  16.0035      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.02
 99  16.8886      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BA519    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.261    39.261    39.261
ecceobj         0.213     0.213     0.213
incobj          2.819     2.819     2.819
qmin           30.181    30.181    30.181
qmax           49.398    49.398    49.398
amean          39.456    39.456    39.456
amin           38.979    38.978    38.978
amax           39.991    39.990    39.991
emean           0.219     0.219     0.219
emin            0.203     0.203     0.203
emax            0.236     0.236     0.236
imean           2.591     2.591     2.592
imin            1.880     1.879     1.880
imax            3.320     3.320     3.320
excite_mean     0.224     0.224     0.224
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.994     2.994     2.994

libcent 0       180.1     180.1     180.2
libamp  0        94.2      94.2      94.2
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       164.4     164.4     164.4
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0