Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AS293

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AS293   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:09 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     38 observations of     38
# Arc:   3.89y
# First observation: 2015/01/12
#  Last observation: 2018/12/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000167   0.022412   0.000072   0.001464   0.023792   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     5.15 DOF:     70 RMS:  0.07
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.12    0.24
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.592162E-05  2.263134E-02  1.015297E-06  1.356485E-03  2.306343E-02  7.292072E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.4940E-13 -1.6220E-13 -1.2584E-14  3.4476E-15 -6.4400E-14 -1.5073E-12
 -1.6220E-13  3.6443E-13 -1.6932E-15 -2.3087E-14  3.4581E-14  3.9073E-12
 -1.2584E-14 -1.6932E-15  9.9581E-14 -2.8241E-14  4.8851E-14  1.2587E-14
  3.4476E-15 -2.3087E-14 -2.8241E-14  2.6474E-14  1.7167E-14 -2.5143E-13
 -6.4400E-14  3.4581E-14  4.8851E-14  1.7167E-14  1.9390E-13  5.1977E-13
 -1.5073E-12  3.9073E-12  1.2587E-14 -2.5143E-13  5.1977E-13  4.4785E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -33.989759    4.629953   -0.941206    0.156146    0.231230  2457034.550828
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457030.5000  =  2015/01/08
Mean Anomaly:           45.08466 +/-     0.024
Argument of Peri:      192.22959 +/-     0.009
Long of Asc Node:       88.47022 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            34.42978 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.35950429 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     51.36499090 +/-    0.0155
Time of Perihelion: 2440191.1418 +/-       4.7
Perihelion:          32.89905652 +/-    0.0190
Aphelion:            69.83092528 +/-    0.0266
Period (y)              368.1366 +/-      0.17
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           35.47600671 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y            3.81900895 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z          -24.23946773 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00058435 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00273768 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00035032 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   43.13564277 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     43.35868495 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  6.32

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AS293. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AS293) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 01  12.05005  01 15 48.351  -29 05 49.54  22.5i 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 01  12.05005  01 15 48.35   -29 05 49.6   22.6i 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 01  13.07738  01 15 49.338  -29 04 50.77  22.7r 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 01  13.07738  01 15 49.34   -29 04 50.8   22.7r 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 01  13.07874  01 15 49.336  -29 04 50.68  22.6i 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 01  13.07874  01 15 49.34   -29 04 50.7   22.5i 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 01  24.05050  01 16 06.485  -28 54 02.89  22.2z 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 01  24.05050  01 16 06.49   -28 54 02.9   22.7z 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 01  28.04177  01 16 15.665  -28 50 00.37  22.3z 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 09  04.39445  01 28 21.267  -28 37 18.03  22.4z 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 09  04.39445  01 28 21.27   -28 37 18.0   22.6z 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 11  01.24805  01 23 50.873  -29 02 59.11  22.6z 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 11  01.24805  01 23 50.87   -29 02 59.1   22.9z 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 11  06.23326  01 23 27.102  -29 02 58.05  22.5i 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 11  06.23326  01 23 27.10   -29 02 58.0   22.6i 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 11  07.26250  01 23 22.318  -29 02 54.59  22.9g 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 11  07.26250  01 23 22.32   -29 02 54.6   22.9g 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 11  07.26389  01 23 22.298  -29 02 54.72  22.4r 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 11  07.26389  01 23 22.30   -29 02 54.7   22.6r 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 11  16.11771  01 22 42.999  -29 01 42.82  22.5r 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 11  16.11771  01 22 43.00   -29 01 42.8   22.6r 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2015 11  30.20461  01 21 49.857  -28 57 10.16  22.8i 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2015 11  30.20461  01 21 49.86   -28 57 10.2   22.8i 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2016 12  02.07839  01 26 40.750  -28 15 34.12  22.6i 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2016 12  02.07839  01 26 40.75   -28 15 34.1   22.8i 15AS293   W84  C~3cq7      
2017 09  26.379363 01 36 35.16   -27 28 57.5   22.8r 15AS293   W84  C~35bw      
2017 09  26.37989  01 36 35.157  -27 28 57.46  22.8r 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2017 09  26.380741 01 36 35.14   -27 28 57.5   22.5i 15AS293   W84  C~35bw      
2017 09  26.38127  01 36 35.146  -27 28 57.47  22.5i 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2017 11  23.08781  01 32 04.534  -27 38 21.15  22.9z 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2017 11  24.21711  01 32 00.200  -27 38 01.41  23.4g 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2017 11  26.05860  01 31 53.355  -27 37 26.25  22.6z 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2017 11  26.059444 01 31 53.36   -27 37 26.2   22.7i 15AS293   W84  C~35bw      
2017 11  26.05997  01 31 53.360  -27 37 26.26  22.6i 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2018 10  27.19464  01 38 50.214  -26 58 53.41  22.6z 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2018 11  16.05151  01 37 18.074  -26 59 04.79  22.6i 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2018 12  02.10360  01 36 16.584  -26 54 40.74  22.8r 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      
2018 12  02.10497  01 36 16.582  -26 54 40.72  23.4g 15AS293   W84  C~4yVg      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.02
     2   0.0000     -0.04    -0.12      -0.05    -0.07
     3   0.0028     38.21     0.04      46.46    -0.02
     4   0.0028     38.20     0.03      46.50     0.01
     5   0.0028     38.25     0.04      46.55     0.00
     6   0.0028     38.21    -0.00      46.59     0.04
     7   0.0329    532.81     0.04     521.60    -0.01
     8   0.0329    532.87     0.09     521.56    -0.05
     9   0.0438    750.45    -0.12     682.83     0.03
    10   0.6443   9558.05     0.02   -3092.08     0.07
    11   0.6443   9558.00    -0.03   -3092.09     0.06
    12   0.8027   5692.79    -0.07   -2767.88     0.01
    13   0.8027   5692.82    -0.04   -2767.91    -0.01
    14   0.8164   5417.69    -0.03   -2620.75     0.02
    15   0.8164   5417.69    -0.03   -2620.81    -0.03
    16   0.8192   5363.84     0.24   -2588.38    -0.01
    17   0.8192   5363.82     0.22   -2588.36     0.01
    18   0.8192   5363.56     0.04   -2588.35    -0.02
    19   0.8192   5363.53     0.01   -2588.35    -0.03
    20   0.8434   4941.19    -0.04   -2283.71    -0.03
    21   0.8434   4941.17    -0.06   -2283.72    -0.04
    22   0.8820   4450.93    -0.01   -1717.41    -0.01
    23   0.8820   4450.91    -0.03   -1717.35     0.04
    24   1.8892   9010.18    -0.07   -1312.43     0.04
    25   1.8892   9010.17    -0.08   -1312.45     0.02
    26   2.7059  17297.99     0.02   -2674.72    -0.12
    27   2.7059  17297.98     0.04   -2674.66    -0.06
    28   2.7059  17297.76    -0.12   -2674.59     0.01
    29   2.7059  17297.84     0.00   -2674.60    -0.00
    30   2.8639  13861.02     0.16   -1407.06     0.07
    31   2.8670  13819.95    -0.10   -1361.82    -0.02
    32   2.8720  13757.01    -0.06   -1286.89     0.10
    33   2.8720  13757.09     0.05   -1286.88     0.08
    34   2.8720  13757.06     0.04   -1286.93     0.01
    35   3.7896  19774.63    -0.01   -1992.95    -0.01
    36   3.8439  18688.50     0.01   -1391.39    -0.03
    37   3.8879  18097.55    -0.02    -754.53    -0.01
    38   3.8879  18097.54     0.01    -754.50    -0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AS293    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        51.933    51.978    51.887
ecceobj         0.363     0.364     0.362
incobj         34.443    34.443    34.443
qmin           32.608    32.594    32.622
qmax           71.305    71.260    71.596
amean          51.698    51.698    51.699
amin           51.220    51.244    51.162
amax           52.322    52.299    52.381
emean           0.278     0.251     0.324
emin            0.197     0.170     0.262
emax            0.366     0.367     0.368
imean          35.328    35.881    34.138
imin           32.892    32.901    32.820
imax           37.082    37.516    35.816
excite_mean     0.644     0.641     0.649
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.633     2.633     2.634

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       259.4     244.3     249.4
kozaiamp         70.5      64.8     180.0