Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AR293

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AR293   
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:13 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     59 observations of     62
# Arc:   3.14y
# First observation: 2015/01/14
#  Last observation: 2018/03/06
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000013   0.033057  -0.000026   0.003842   0.027992   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    29.54 DOF:    112 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.50    0.36
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.768583E-05  3.262231E-02  2.086702E-06  3.760098E-03  2.774378E-02 -3.774218E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.9442E-13 -6.8338E-14 -2.4465E-16 -3.3754E-15  1.0833E-13 -6.5633E-14
 -6.8338E-14  2.0956E-13 -1.4307E-14  3.0443E-14  8.8140E-14  2.7448E-12
 -2.4465E-16 -1.4307E-14  8.9125E-14 -5.4328E-14 -9.3945E-15 -2.3798E-13
 -3.3754E-15  3.0443E-14 -5.4328E-14  4.7783E-14  1.5642E-14  4.9869E-13
  1.0833E-13  8.8140E-14 -9.3945E-15  1.5642E-14  1.7711E-13  1.6767E-12
 -6.5633E-14  2.7448E-12 -2.3798E-13  4.9869E-13  1.6767E-12  4.5433E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   23.890002  155.028239    0.647262    0.299075   -0.674843  2457037.134178
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457030.5000  =  2015/01/08
Mean Anomaly:          346.17975 +/-     0.017
Argument of Peri:      104.18178 +/-     0.039
Long of Asc Node:       80.98540 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            24.37222 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.34873110 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     54.46790783 +/-    0.0075
Time of Perihelion: 2462667.1753 +/-       6.7
Perihelion:          35.47325418 +/-    0.0089
Aphelion:            73.46256147 +/-    0.0126
Period (y)              401.9937 +/-      0.08
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -30.27417770 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Y           14.81166194 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z           14.59727211 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00091805 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00313086 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00018853 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   36.72861987 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     36.04411044 +/-    0.0005
# Hcoef:  6.91

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AR293. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AR293) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 01  14.63340  11 07 33.203  +31 40 31.48  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 01  14.64295  11 07 33.150  +31 40 31.73  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 01  14.65234  11 07 33.132  +31 40 32.65  22.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 03  16.46774  11 02 25.225  +32 21 10.37  22.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 03  16.47823  11 02 25.175  +32 21 10.65  22.1G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 03  16.48881  11 02 25.102  +32 21 10.82  22.1G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 03  16.49944  11 02 25.053  +32 21 11.09  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 03  17.47323  11 02 19.478  +32 21 30.58  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 03  17.48363  11 02 19.420  +32 21 30.83  22.8G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 03  17.49413  11 02 19.350  +32 21 31.08  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 03  17.53555  11 02 19.113  +32 21 31.98  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 04  20.33325  10 59 35.287  +32 23 40.73  21.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 04  20.34607  10 59 35.251  +32 23 41.17  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 04  20.35893  10 59 35.189  +32 23 41.05  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2015 04  20.37192  10 59 35.154  +32 23 40.70  23.1G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 01  31.57768  11 14 55.403  +31 17 24.23  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  10.42768  11 14 08.833  +31 25 11.09  22.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  10.43927  11 14 08.738  +31 25 11.63  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  10.45085  11 14 08.705  +31 25 12.33  22.0G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  10.46248  11 14 08.639  +31 25 12.61  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  14.43478  11 13 48.092  +31 28 10.19  23.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  14.44652  11 13 48.023  +31 28 10.69  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  14.45826  11 13 47.964  +31 28 11.27  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  14.47005  11 13 47.898  +31 28 11.74  22.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 02  28.57169  11 12 29.466  +31 37 31.55  21.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  13.33618  11 11 09.315  +31 44 24.51  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  13.34715  11 11 09.281  +31 44 24.86  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  13.35815  11 11 09.226  +31 44 25.11  22.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  13.36910  11 11 09.151  +31 44 25.36  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  13.48778  11 11 08.449  +31 44 28.44  22.6G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  13.49896  11 11 08.361  +31 44 28.60  22.6G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  13.51010  11 11 08.324  +31 44 28.78  22.7G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  13.52125  11 11 08.248  +31 44 29.04  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 04  30.35482  11 07 26.080  +31 46 07.27  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 04  30.36599  11 07 26.043  +31 46 07.03  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 04  30.37833  11 07 26.015  +31 46 06.79  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 04  30.38949  11 07 25.977  +31 46 06.62  22.8G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 05  03.38466  11 07 18.037  +31 45 01.27  21.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 05  30.30793  11 06 50.696  +31 29 56.88  22.7G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 05  30.32016  11 06 50.715  +31 29 56.97  22.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 05  30.33241  11 06 50.707  +31 29 55.96  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2016 05  30.34465  11 06 50.712  +31 29 55.30  22.9G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 01  31.47158  11 23 16.409  +30 38 44.58  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 01  31.48280  11 23 16.375  +30 38 45.21  22.7G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 01  31.49401  11 23 16.317  +30 38 45.70  22.8G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.31001  11 21 49.830  +30 52 34.38  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.33821  11 21 49.683  +30 52 35.57  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.36333  11 21 49.545  +30 52 36.77  23.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.38981  11 21 49.402  +30 52 37.90  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.39871  11 21 49.358  +30 52 38.21  22.5G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.41309  11 21 49.276  +30 52 38.65  22.2G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.42520  11 21 49.222  +30 52 39.40  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.43848  11 21 49.154  +30 52 39.85  22.7G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.60543  11 21 48.201  +30 52 47.07  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  18.64793  11 21 47.985  +30 52 48.53  21.9G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  19.37539  11 21 44.082  +30 53 19.55  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 02  23.63339  11 21 20.646  +30 56 13.28  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 03  06.40292  11 20 19.092  +31 02 39.99  22.3G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 03  29.31734  11 18 08.714  +31 11 11.86  22.4G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 03  29.32891  11 18 08.643  +31 11 12.39  22.6G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2017 04  11.45295  11 17 02.589  +31 12 27.17  20.7G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      
2018 03  06.37296  11 28 45.411  +30 21 45.93  21.7G 15AR293   F51  C~346y      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.01
     2   0.0000     -0.72     0.02      -0.06    -0.32
     3   0.0001     -1.32    -0.03       0.68     0.16
     4   0.1666  -4578.85    -0.07     576.62    -0.03
     5   0.1666  -4579.55     0.04     576.61     0.09
     6   0.1666  -4580.46    -0.08     576.38    -0.01
     7   0.1666  -4581.14     0.05     576.37     0.11
     8   0.1693  -4653.56     0.03     564.96     0.04
     9   0.1693  -4654.33     0.04     564.89     0.10
    10   0.1694  -4655.24    -0.09     564.75     0.09
    11   0.1695  -4658.35    -0.09     564.33     0.21
    12   0.2620  -6605.66     0.13    -169.03    -0.50
    13   0.2620  -6606.25     0.03    -168.81     0.10
    14   0.2621  -6606.92    -0.15    -169.24     0.07
    15   0.2621  -6607.18     0.09    -169.74    -0.04
    16   1.0457   5703.17    -0.04    1188.52     0.06
    17   1.0727   4961.90     0.22    1346.87     0.05
    18   1.0727   4960.57    -0.19    1346.82    -0.14
    19   1.0727   4959.88     0.05    1347.27     0.16
    20   1.0728   4959.00     0.09    1347.15    -0.10
    21   1.0836   4644.72     0.04    1391.98    -0.02
    22   1.0837   4643.71    -0.02    1392.04    -0.07
    23   1.0837   4642.78    -0.00    1392.24     0.01
    24   1.0837   4641.81    -0.01    1392.29    -0.04
    25   1.1223   3495.03    -0.08    1459.84    -0.16
    26   1.1600   2393.72    -0.33    1389.57    -0.19
    27   1.1601   2393.18    -0.01    1389.69     0.05
    28   1.1601   2392.44     0.12    1389.62     0.09
    29   1.1601   2391.46     0.01    1389.43     0.01
    30   1.1605   2382.06    -0.08    1388.35     0.19
    31   1.1605   2380.97    -0.29    1388.01    -0.03
    32   1.1605   2380.47     0.08    1387.97     0.05
    33   1.1605   2379.48    -0.04    1387.78    -0.01
    34   1.2915   -224.56     0.07     265.68     0.04
    35   1.2915   -224.89     0.02     265.26     0.01
    36   1.2916   -225.11     0.10     264.90     0.06
    37   1.2916   -225.48     0.01     264.54     0.09
    38   1.2998   -289.56     0.12     162.46    -0.36
    39   1.3735   -223.74     0.01    -804.78    -0.03
    40   1.3735   -223.56 (  -0.09)   -804.59 (   0.61)
    41   1.3736   -223.23    -0.04    -805.55     0.10
    42   1.3736   -222.89     0.01    -806.12    -0.01
    43   2.0475  12518.12    -0.00    1998.10    -0.00
    44   2.0475  12517.44     0.13    1998.46     0.15
    45   2.0475  12516.55     0.06    1998.56     0.03
    46   2.0963  11142.49    -0.12    2230.51    -0.06
    47   2.0964  11140.26    -0.04    2230.71    -0.05
    48   2.0965  11138.13    -0.11    2230.98     0.04
    49   2.0965  11135.97    -0.09    2231.15     0.04
    50   2.0966  11135.32    -0.00    2231.17     0.01
    51   2.0966  11134.18     0.04    2231.09    -0.17
    52   2.0966  11133.22     0.08    2231.44     0.10
    53   2.0967  11132.23     0.19    2231.45     0.03
    54   2.0971  11117.98    -0.30    2232.33    -0.06
    55   2.0972  11114.83     0.03    2232.37    -0.26
    56   2.0992  11055.81    -0.10    2237.28    -0.03
    57   2.1109  10707.26     0.18    2255.77     0.05
    58   2.1404   9824.18    -0.03    2243.88     0.04
    59   2.2031   8094.43 (   0.45)   1951.50 (   0.06)
    60   2.2031   8093.38     0.19    1951.57     0.36
    61   2.2391   7299.68 (   0.04)   1641.64 (   0.99)
    62   3.1396  16783.21    -0.00    3059.14    -0.07

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AR293    quality flag:3

Type:     12:5EEEEEE12:5EEEEEE12:5EEEEEE

axisobj        53.852    53.868    53.836
ecceobj         0.340     0.341     0.340
incobj         24.350    24.350    24.350
qmin           33.535    33.563    33.611
qmax           75.288    75.296    75.197
amean          53.972    53.972    53.972
amin           53.404    53.380    53.396
amax           54.734    54.724    54.716
emean           0.357     0.357     0.356
emin            0.331     0.331     0.331
emax            0.377     0.377     0.376
imean          22.113    22.132    22.164
imin           21.244    21.263    21.321
imax           23.177    23.185    23.193
excite_mean     0.519     0.519     0.519
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.875     2.875     2.875

libcent 0       180.3     180.7     177.7
libamp  0        74.5      74.1      78.6
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       188.7     188.0     186.2
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0