Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AQ293

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AQ293   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:09 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     81 observations of     82
# Arc:   4.99y
# First observation: 2012/12/28
#  Last observation: 2017/12/23
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000056   0.017050  -0.000010  -0.006127   0.021022   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    43.93 DOF:    156 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.42    0.28
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.300551E-05  1.730301E-02 -5.955133E-06 -6.208898E-03  2.140971E-02  3.443297E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  4.6863E-13 -2.6672E-13 -9.6128E-14  7.2586E-14 -1.1493E-13 -1.9691E-12
 -2.6672E-13  1.7312E-13  6.9761E-14 -5.2574E-14  8.2171E-14  1.4257E-12
 -9.6128E-14  6.9761E-14  2.0456E-13 -7.5889E-14  3.2434E-14  6.3516E-13
  7.2586E-14 -5.2574E-14 -7.5889E-14  3.5626E-14 -2.9152E-14 -4.8412E-13
 -1.1493E-13  8.2171E-14  3.2434E-14 -2.9152E-14  9.4717E-14  8.1347E-13
 -1.9691E-12  1.4257E-12  6.3516E-13 -4.8412E-13  8.1347E-13  1.3155E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -27.602516   71.565618   -0.420943   -0.410562   -0.785403  2456289.898268
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456280.5000  =  2012/12/19
Mean Anomaly:          101.54464 +/-     0.038
Argument of Peri:      114.01038 +/-     0.030
Long of Asc Node:      200.07060 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            32.98135 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.20344212 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     44.08761127 +/-    0.0032
Time of Perihelion: 2426120.7454 +/-      10.8
Perihelion:          35.11833405 +/-    0.0067
Aphelion:            53.05688849 +/-    0.0073
Period (y)              292.7407 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           12.97039446 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y           40.24409227 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z          -21.64162405 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00209823 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00072223 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00090751 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   47.49924196 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     46.70778211 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  5.76

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AQ293. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AQ293) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2012 12  28.39749  04 54 37.681  -05 12 11.12  22.6G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2013 01  27.28001  04 52 57.521  -05 05 40.68  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2013 12  12.41705  04 59 55.352  -05 25 28.89  21.7G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2014 10  31.61139  05 06 52.810  -05 25 41.66  22.1G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2014 12  10.47829  05 04 11.255  -05 38 38.88  23.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2014 12  10.51322  05 04 11.094  -05 38 39.11  22.0G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  12.34534  05 01 55.815  -05 37 07.02  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  12.35986  05 01 55.746  -05 37 06.85  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  12.37396  05 01 55.701  -05 37 06.61  22.7G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  12.38763  05 01 55.657  -05 37 06.53  22.2G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  14.26804  05 01 49.147  -05 36 40.99  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  14.28039  05 01 49.096  -05 36 40.82  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  14.29274  05 01 49.043  -05 36 40.43  21.9G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  14.30505  05 01 49.016  -05 36 40.30  21.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  15.27812  05 01 45.720  -05 36 26.23  22.2G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  15.29166  05 01 45.678  -05 36 25.99  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  15.30518  05 01 45.632  -05 36 25.82  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  15.31871  05 01 45.580  -05 36 25.61  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  16.27158  05 01 42.405  -05 36 11.41  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  16.28608  05 01 42.356  -05 36 11.10  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  16.30058  05 01 42.325  -05 36 10.89  22.6G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 01  16.31510  05 01 42.275  -05 36 10.47  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  22.56893  05 12 07.620  -05 15 57.67  22.6G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  22.57865  05 12 07.614  -05 15 58.29  23.0G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  22.58841  05 12 07.601  -05 15 58.54  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  22.59815  05 12 07.588  -05 15 58.85  22.7G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  23.57532  05 12 07.294  -05 16 35.55  22.7G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  23.58698  05 12 07.283  -05 16 36.03  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  23.59865  05 12 07.286  -05 16 36.41  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  23.61031  05 12 07.269  -05 16 36.89  22.7G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  24.57342  05 12 06.884  -05 17 13.17  21.9G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  24.58511  05 12 06.860  -05 17 13.79  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  24.59677  05 12 06.870  -05 17 13.96  22.9G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 09  24.60842  05 12 06.857  -05 17 14.84  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 10  25.50685  05 11 14.965  -05 35 36.47  22.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 10  26.45458  05 11 12.258  -05 36 06.56  22.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 12  06.40984  05 08 34.754  -05 51 15.03  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 12  13.47306  05 08 03.399  -05 52 13.99  23.0G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 12  13.48614  05 08 03.339  -05 52 13.89  22.6G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 12  13.49921  05 08 03.300  -05 52 14.05  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 12  13.51230  05 08 03.247  -05 52 14.44  22.1G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 12  14.42744  05 07 59.188  -05 52 19.63  22.1G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2015 12  14.46312  05 07 59.009  -05 52 19.73  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  09.37564  05 06 11.235  -05 51 03.05  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  09.37694  05 06 11.227  -05 51 03.12  22.0G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  09.38747  05 06 11.180  -05 51 02.91  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  09.38876  05 06 11.174  -05 51 02.83  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  09.39929  05 06 11.135  -05 51 02.72  22.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  09.40059  05 06 11.142  -05 51 03.19  22.2G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  09.41114  05 06 11.092  -05 51 02.57  22.6G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  09.41243  05 06 11.075  -05 51 02.64  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  11.35049  05 06 03.969  -05 50 39.86  23.1G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  11.36311  05 06 03.934  -05 50 39.74  22.1G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  11.37568  05 06 03.882  -05 50 39.43  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  11.38827  05 06 03.834  -05 50 39.55  21.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  30.32072  05 05 05.556  -05 45 05.49  22.6G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  30.33403  05 05 05.552  -05 45 05.26  22.2G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  30.34732  05 05 05.516  -05 45 04.81  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 01  30.36063  05 05 05.486  -05 45 04.62  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 02  12.24000  05 04 39.973  -05 39 39.60  22.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 02  12.25193  05 04 39.964  -05 39 39.11  22.7G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 02  12.26382  05 04 39.954  -05 39 38.97  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 03  02.23861  05 04 26.931  -05 30 02.95  22.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346x      
2016 03  02.25257  05 04 26.906  -05 30 02.27  23.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  02.26647  05 04 26.925  -05 30 02.10  23.0G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2016 03  02.28037  05 04 26.944  -05 30 01.64  22.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2016 10  09.59486  05 15 49.300  -05 39 55.21  22.3G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2016 10  09.60478  05 15 49.272  -05 39 55.66  22.0G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2016 10  09.61469  05 15 49.270  -05 39 55.96  21.9G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2016 10  09.62462  05 15 49.253  -05 39 56.43  21.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 11  09.55332  05 18 25.522  -06 09 00.37  22.1G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 11  09.56517  05 18 25.486  -06 09 00.42  21.7G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 11  09.57697  05 18 25.442  -06 09 00.39  22.2G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 11  18.43826  05 17 51.817  -06 12 30.58  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 11  18.45114  05 17 51.755  -06 12 30.99  21.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 11  18.46402  05 17 51.696  -06 12 31.13  22.0G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 11  18.47695  05 17 51.657  -06 12 31.52  21.6G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 12  14.40433  05 16 00.442  -06 18 22.07  22.8G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 12  23.35634  05 15 21.218  -06 18 42.98  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 12  23.36803  05 15 21.179  -06 18 43.13  22.9G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 12  23.37972  05 15 21.130  -06 18 42.98  22.4G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      
2017 12  23.39145  05 15 21.076  -06 18 43.18  22.5G 15AQ293   F51  C~346y      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.28
     2   0.0818  -1435.26    -0.09     575.85     0.00
     3   0.9556   4605.18     0.26   -1395.79    -0.16
     4   1.8404  10794.02     0.01   -2219.45    -0.42
     5   1.9496   8295.68    -0.02   -2674.57    -0.08
     6   1.9497   8293.26    -0.07   -2674.49    -0.04
     7   2.0396   6300.16     0.14   -2320.46    -0.01
     8   2.0396   6299.16    -0.12   -2320.16    -0.00
     9   2.0396   6298.53    -0.02   -2319.83     0.04
    10   2.0397   6297.88     0.04   -2319.67    -0.06
    11   2.0448   6204.72     0.04   -2281.74    -0.14
    12   2.0449   6203.99    -0.08   -2281.47    -0.13
    13   2.0449   6203.25    -0.20   -2280.98     0.10
    14   2.0449   6202.87     0.03   -2280.80     0.03
    15   2.0476   6155.85    -0.00   -2260.47     0.03
    16   2.0476   6155.26     0.07   -2260.15     0.06
    17   2.0477   6154.60     0.07   -2259.90     0.03
    18   2.0477   6153.85    -0.01   -2259.59     0.05
    19   2.0503   6108.64    -0.09   -2239.36    -0.07
    20   2.0503   6107.96    -0.08   -2238.96     0.02
    21   2.0504   6107.53     0.18   -2238.69    -0.03
    22   2.0504   6106.84     0.19   -2238.18     0.17
    23   2.7328  15551.38     0.07   -2263.98     0.15
    24   2.7329  15551.21    -0.00   -2264.58    -0.10
    25   2.7329  15550.98    -0.13   -2264.81     0.04
    26   2.7329  15550.75    -0.26   -2265.09     0.11
    27   2.7356  15541.47     0.13   -2300.98     0.07
    28   2.7356  15541.24     0.04   -2301.43     0.04
    29   2.7357  15541.23     0.16   -2301.82     0.08
    30   2.7357  15540.91    -0.02   -2302.26     0.06
    31   2.7383  15530.34     0.12   -2337.55    -0.06
    32   2.7384  15529.90    -0.17   -2338.12    -0.20
    33   2.7384  15530.02     0.10   -2338.31     0.03
    34   2.7384  15529.71    -0.06   -2339.16    -0.39
    35   2.8230  14610.58     0.12   -3330.17    -0.14
    36   2.8256  14566.31    -0.11   -3354.65     0.02
    37   2.9377  12105.53    -0.00   -3943.42    -0.16
    38   2.9571  11632.33    -0.20   -3939.83     0.10
    39   2.9571  11631.45    -0.19   -3939.61     0.28
    40   2.9572  11630.85     0.09   -3939.70     0.16
    41   2.9572  11630.01     0.14   -3939.98    -0.16
    42   2.9597  11569.09    -0.00   -3937.10    -0.05
    43   2.9598  11566.42    -0.27   -3936.84     0.08
    44   3.0307   9977.57     0.17   -3648.10     0.01
    45   3.0307   9977.45     0.11   -3648.15    -0.06
    46   3.0308   9976.78     0.02   -3647.85     0.04
    47   3.0308   9976.70     0.01   -3647.76     0.11
    48   3.0308   9976.13     0.02   -3647.57     0.10
    49   3.0308   9976.18     0.14   -3648.05    -0.41
    50   3.0308   9975.52     0.05   -3647.34     0.11
    51   3.0308   9975.25    -0.14   -3647.38     0.05
    52   3.0361   9872.85    -0.02   -3610.80    -0.00
    53   3.0362   9872.35     0.15   -3610.61    -0.06
    54   3.0362   9871.62     0.09   -3610.20     0.10
    55   3.0363   9870.89     0.03   -3610.22    -0.17
    56   3.0881   9050.38    -0.42   -3164.34     0.12
    57   3.0881   9050.35     0.01   -3164.10    -0.01
    58   3.0882   9049.88    -0.00   -3163.59     0.15
    59   3.0882   9049.46     0.04   -3163.34     0.03
    60   3.1235   8713.56    -0.06   -2790.87     0.04
    61   3.1235   8713.50     0.10   -2790.37     0.18
    62   3.1235   8713.37     0.20   -2790.21    -0.02
    63   3.1755   8595.32     0.02   -2193.12    -0.05
    64   3.1755   8595.04    -0.33   -2192.39     0.23
    65   3.1755   8595.34    -0.10   -2192.26    -0.09
    66   3.1756   8595.68     0.17   -2191.84    -0.11
    67   3.7815  18661.68    -0.03   -4141.30     0.12
    68   3.7815  18661.20    -0.20   -4141.69     0.05
    69   3.7816  18661.13     0.03   -4141.99     0.08
    70   3.7816  18660.82     0.02   -4142.42    -0.03
    71   4.8656  20756.16    -0.03   -6199.82    -0.04
    72   4.8656  20755.62     0.11   -6199.80     0.20
    73   4.8657  20754.97 (   0.15)  -6199.67 (   0.54)
    74   4.8899  20224.32     0.14   -6339.52    -0.09
    75   4.8899  20223.34    -0.02   -6339.80    -0.20
    76   4.8900  20222.44    -0.10   -6339.82    -0.06
    77   4.8900  20221.81     0.08   -6340.13    -0.20
    78   4.9610  18515.71     0.00   -6460.17    -0.06
    79   4.9855  17928.56    -0.13   -6400.59     0.19
    80   4.9855  17927.96     0.03   -6400.66     0.01
    81   4.9856  17927.25     0.08   -6400.41     0.14
    82   4.9856  17926.42     0.02   -6400.50    -0.06

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AQ293    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        44.170    44.180    44.161
ecceobj         0.206     0.206     0.206
incobj         32.926    32.926    32.926
qmin           34.376    34.359    34.336
qmax           53.895    53.920    53.835
amean          43.907    43.914    43.897
amin           43.527    43.540    43.524
amax           44.336    44.349    44.332
emean           0.193     0.193     0.192
emin            0.172     0.172     0.171
emax            0.216     0.216     0.215
imean          33.521    33.519    33.519
imin           33.016    33.017    33.025
imax           33.896    33.864    33.937
excite_mean     0.585     0.585     0.585
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.661     2.661     2.661

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       177.5     177.5     177.7
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9