Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AH281

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AH281   
# Created Sun Sep 25 01:17:26 2022
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting    102 observations of    102
# Arc:   8.23y
# First observation: 2013/09/14
#  Last observation: 2021/12/06
# Chi-squared of fit:    79.68 DOF:    198 RMS:  0.16
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.52    0.69
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.002555E-05  1.230258E-02 -1.405539E-06 -2.071233E-03  1.874119E-02 -2.946496E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  1.0354E-13 -6.0421E-15  4.4500E-16 -6.1287E-16  5.2769E-14  4.2267E-14
 -6.0421E-15  3.7808E-14  8.4379E-15 -7.0489E-15  6.1229E-14  4.1362E-13
  4.4500E-16  8.4379E-15  5.7917E-14 -1.1026E-14  1.4126E-14  9.7674E-14
 -6.1287E-16 -7.0489E-15 -1.1026E-14  3.4776E-15 -1.2041E-14 -8.1615E-14
  5.2769E-14  6.1229E-14  1.4126E-14 -1.2041E-14  1.5180E-13  7.1279E-13
  4.2267E-14  4.1362E-13  9.7674E-14 -8.1615E-14  7.1279E-13  4.7895E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    0.459784  104.352138    0.928271   -0.003045    0.388946  2456550.107590
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456550.5000  =  2013/09/15
Mean Anomaly:          187.43371 +/-     0.017
Argument of Peri:      353.74129 +/-     0.015
Long of Asc Node:      286.10798 +/-     0.000
Inclination:             9.52799 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.40265222 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     37.81775870 +/-    0.0015
Time of Perihelion: 2497269.3557 +/-       4.9
Perihelion:          22.59035409 +/-    0.0012
Aphelion:            53.04516332 +/-    0.0023
Period (y)              232.5690 +/-      0.01
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -12.23121216 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           51.54705787 +/-    0.0011
Ecliptic Z            0.42810975 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00173727 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00048605 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00030278 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   52.98006628 +/-    0.0010
Geocenter to KBO     53.35842283 +/-    0.0011
# Hcoef:  5.39

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AH281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AH281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2013 09  14.606812 07 02 32.657  +23 07 24.26  22.6G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 09  14.618036 07 02 32.674  +23 07 24.27  22.5G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 09  14.623635 07 02 32.688  +23 07 24.22  22.6G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 11  24.618857 07 01 52.665  +23 07 33.91  22.0G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 12  11.553469 07 00 50.590  +23 08 49.22  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 12  11.568519 07 00 50.546  +23 08 49.10  22.6G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 12  11.583635 07 00 50.478  +23 08 49.26  22.2G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 12  11.598735 07 00 50.422  +23 08 49.12  22.5G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 12  26.37698  06 59 47.337  +23 10 04.17  22.0w 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 12  26.39241  06 59 47.295  +23 10 04.18  21.7w 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2013 12  26.40784  06 59 47.219  +23 10 04.47  22.2w 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2015 01  13.33831  07 01 33.152  +22 59 49.63  22.3w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  13.35187  07 01 33.073  +22 59 49.57  22.3w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  13.36539  07 01 33.038  +22 59 49.66  22.2w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  16.33022  07 01 19.921  +23 00 04.96  22.6w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  16.34237  07 01 19.867  +23 00 05.30  22.1w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  16.35455  07 01 19.818  +23 00 05.19  22.2w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  16.36681  07 01 19.753  +23 00 05.37  22.8w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  20.28794  07 01 02.674  +23 00 25.04  22.5w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  20.29867  07 01 02.642  +23 00 25.26  22.4w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  20.30959  07 01 02.584  +23 00 25.19  22.7w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  20.32041  07 01 02.537  +23 00 25.30  22.8w 15AH281   F51  C~1vY1      
2016 01  05.555585 07 05 13.690  +22 47 04.47  22.5G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 01  16.462575 07 04 24.989  +22 48 06.24  22.9G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 01  16.473485 07 04 24.926  +22 48 06.45  22.5G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 01  16.484302 07 04 24.903  +22 48 06.68  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 01  16.495122 07 04 24.841  +22 48 06.43  22.8G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 02  01.281682 07 03 18.460  +22 49 27.33  21.9G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 02  05.279129 07 03 03.007  +22 49 45.11  23.3G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 02  05.293348 07 03 02.957  +22 49 45.41  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 02  05.307605 07 03 02.898  +22 49 45.52  22.2G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 02  05.321989 07 03 02.848  +22 49 45.63  22.4G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 04  02.264237 07 01 13.929  +22 51 08.87  22.5G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 04  02.276867 07 01 13.931  +22 51 08.94  22.5G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2016 04  02.302186 07 01 13.954  +22 51 08.90  22.3G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2017 01  27.462846 07 06 38.675  +22 37 00.29  22.3G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2017 01  27.475464 07 06 38.647  +22 37 00.30  21.9G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2017 01  27.488120 07 06 38.568  +22 37 00.26  21.9G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2017 01  27.500788 07 06 38.515  +22 37 00.00  22.2G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  20.320235 07 10 13.381  +22 23 54.46  23.0G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  20.320889 07 10 13.381  +22 23 54.66  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  20.333189 07 10 13.326  +22 23 54.77  22.3G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  20.333849 07 10 13.310  +22 23 54.69  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  20.346090 07 10 13.245  +22 23 54.74  23.0G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  20.346756 07 10 13.261  +22 23 54.98  22.6G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  20.358988 07 10 13.213  +22 23 54.79  22.8G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  20.359669 07 10 13.220  +22 23 54.73  22.8G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 01  23.458522 07 09 59.894  +22 24 13.48  22.1G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 02  18.235011 07 08 22.786  +22 26 23.42  22.1G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 02  18.263584 07 08 22.638  +22 26 23.68  22.9G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2018 02  18.277895 07 08 22.624  +22 26 23.82  22.9G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 01  03.526846 07 14 32.075  +22 09 22.86  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 01  03.539115 07 14 32.004  +22 09 22.95  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 01  03.551379 07 14 31.936  +22 09 22.81  22.2G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 01  03.563629 07 14 31.896  +22 09 22.93  22.6G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 01  10.348289 07 14 01.555  +22 10 08.60  22.1G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 01  10.360143 07 14 01.490  +22 10 08.63  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 01  10.383885 07 14 01.380  +22 10 08.71  22.6G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 02  04.252703 07 12 15.435  +22 12 44.91  22.8G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 02  04.265719 07 12 15.359  +22 12 44.96  22.8G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 02  04.291497 07 12 15.260  +22 12 45.20  22.0G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 10  13.579075 07 21 06.964  +21 51 39.74  21.7G 15AH281   F52  C~5JxZ      
2019 10  13.598509 07 21 06.977  +21 51 40.24  21.1G 15AH281   F52  C~5JxZ      
2019 10  13.601127 07 21 06.955  +21 51 40.34  22.0G 15AH281   F52  C~5JxZ      
2019 12  28.539617 07 18 02.164  +21 55 40.75  22.8G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2019 12  28.551806 07 18 02.088  +21 55 40.76  22.7G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 01  20.461510 07 16 20.423  +21 58 20.65  22.9G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 01  20.501970 07 16 20.263  +21 58 20.82  22.1G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 01  30.280214 07 15 38.686  +21 59 25.26  22.1G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 01  30.293045 07 15 38.646  +21 59 25.36  22.2G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 01  30.306044 07 15 38.596  +21 59 25.53  22.1G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 03  24.317532 07 13 17.399  +22 02 46.03  22.6G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 04  19.250796 07 13 27.436  +22 02 07.13  22.2G 15AH281   F52  C~5JxZ      
2020 04  19.290467 07 13 27.540  +22 02 06.95  21.7G 15AH281   F52  C~5JxZ      
2020 10  22.552748 07 24 05.634  +21 38 11.41  22.3G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 10  22.565722 07 24 05.629  +21 38 11.39  22.8G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 10  22.591785 07 24 05.621  +21 38 11.17  23.4G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 11  16.497155 07 23 30.417  +21 38 40.89  22.4G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 11  16.508832 07 23 30.368  +21 38 40.84  22.1G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 11  16.520539 07 23 30.362  +21 38 40.79  22.4G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 11  16.532244 07 23 30.331  +21 38 40.91  22.2G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 12  12.427071 07 22 08.015  +21 40 44.01  22.0G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 12  24.532190 07 21 18.443  +21 42 03.66  22.0G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 12  24.545704 07 21 18.424  +21 42 03.76  22.5G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 12  24.559263 07 21 18.356  +21 42 03.69  22.1G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2020 12  24.572817 07 21 18.288  +21 42 03.66  22.4G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2021 02  09.251518 07 17 58.869  +21 47 29.90  22.2G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2021 02  09.264283 07 17 58.801  +21 47 29.76  22.4G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2021 02  13.248943 07 17 44.459  +21 47 52.86  23.0G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2021 02  13.262557 07 17 44.408  +21 47 52.75  22.5G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2021 02  13.276116 07 17 44.324  +21 47 53.19  22.4G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2021 02  13.289743 07 17 44.308  +21 47 53.22  22.8G 15AH281   F51  C~5JxZ      
2021 02  17.22211  07 17 30.956  +21 48 14.36  22.7r 15AH281   568  C~5JxZ      
2021 02  17.39683  07 17 30.366  +21 48 15.17  22.7r 15AH281   568  C~5JxZ      
2021 03  09.03387  07 16 38.470  +21 49 35.06  22.9G 15AH281   304  C~5JxZ      
2021 03  09.08923  07 16 38.349  +21 49 35.42  23.1G 15AH281   304  C~5JxZ      
2021 03  17.08715  07 16 25.156  +21 49 53.37  23.1r 15AH281   304  C~5JxZ      
2021 03  18.00585  07 16 23.988  +21 49 54.92  23.0r 15AH281   304  C~5JxZ      
2021 10  30.36043  07 26 59.952  +21 24 39.27  22.8r 15AH281   304  C~5JxZ      
2021 12  02.25734  07 25 47.291  +21 26 12.16  22.9r 15AH281   304  C~5JxZ      
2021 12  02.27263  07 25 47.250  +21 26 12.23  22.8r 15AH281   304  C~5JxZ      
2021 12  06.22788  07 25 33.692  +21 26 33.47  22.9r 15AH281   304  C~5JxZ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.08
     2   0.0000      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.03
     3   0.0000      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.05
     4   0.1944      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.08
     5   0.2408      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.08
     6   0.2408      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.11
     7   0.2409      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.02
     8   0.2409      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.23
     9   0.2814      0.00    -0.28       0.00    -0.12
    10   0.2814      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.19
    11   0.2815      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.02
    12   1.3299      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.15
    13   1.3299      0.00    -0.23       0.00     0.02
    14   1.3299      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.04
    15   1.3381      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.06
    16   1.3381      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.21
    17   1.3381      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.04
    18   1.3382      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.15
    19   1.3489      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.02
    20   1.3489      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.19
    21   1.3489      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.06
    22   1.3490      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.11
    23   2.3079      0.00     0.24       0.00    -0.07
    24   2.3377      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.07
    25   2.3378      0.00    -0.21       0.00     0.08
    26   2.3378      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.25
    27   2.3378      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.05
    28   2.3810      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.02
    29   2.3920      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.20
    30   2.3920      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.03
    31   2.3921      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.08
    32   2.3921      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.13
    33   2.5480      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.06
    34   2.5480      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.04
    35   2.5481      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.05
    36   3.3699      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.23
    37   3.3699      0.00     0.25       0.00     0.17
    38   3.3700      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.07
    39   3.3700      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.25
    40   4.3497      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.19
    41   4.3497      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.01
    42   4.3497      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.04
    43   4.3497      0.00    -0.24       0.00    -0.04
    44   4.3497      0.00    -0.41       0.00    -0.07
    45   4.3497      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.17
    46   4.3498      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.10
    47   4.3498      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.16
    48   4.3583      0.00     0.40       0.00    -0.00
    49   4.4288      0.00     0.54       0.00    -0.10
    50   4.4289      0.00    -0.31       0.00     0.04
    51   4.4289      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.12
    52   5.3030      0.00     0.25       0.00     0.08
    53   5.3030      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.09
    54   5.3031      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.13
    55   5.3031      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.09
    56   5.3217      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.06
    57   5.3217      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.01
    58   5.3218      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.08
    59   5.3899      0.00     0.27       0.00    -0.04
    60   5.3899      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.06
    61   5.3900      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.03
    62   6.0780      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.36
    63   6.0780      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.18
    64   6.0780      0.00    -0.25       0.00     0.29
    65   6.2859      0.00     0.22       0.00    -0.22
    66   6.2860      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.29
    67   6.3487      0.00    -0.29       0.00     0.13
    68   6.3488      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.03
    69   6.3756      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.10
    70   6.3756      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.09
    71   6.3756      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.00
    72   6.5235      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.02
    73   6.5945      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.12
    74   6.5946      0.00     0.69       0.00     0.09
    75   7.1046      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.03
    76   7.1046      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.04
    77   7.1047      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.24
    78   7.1729      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.03
    79   7.1729      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.06
    80   7.1729      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.15
    81   7.1730      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.06
    82   7.2439      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.11
    83   7.2770      0.00    -0.52       0.00     0.14
    84   7.2770      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.15
    85   7.2771      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.01
    86   7.2771      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.14
    87   7.4049      0.00     0.24       0.00     0.13
    88   7.4049      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.09
    89   7.4159      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.02
    90   7.4159      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.21
    91   7.4159      0.00    -0.39       0.00     0.15
    92   7.4160      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.11
    93   7.4267      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.02
    94   7.4272      0.00    -0.22       0.00    -0.09
    95   7.4810      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.00
    96   7.4811      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.21
    97   7.5030      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.06
    98   7.5055      0.00     0.21       0.00    -0.04
    99   8.1253      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.09
   100   8.2153      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.07
   101   8.2154      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.06
   102   8.2262      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AH281    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        37.806    37.806    37.806
ecceobj         0.404     0.404     0.404
incobj          9.546     9.546     9.546
qmin           22.035    22.035    22.035
qmax           54.085    56.210    54.085
amean          37.809    37.860    37.674
amin           37.364    37.364    36.503
amax           38.915    40.792    38.340
emean           0.401     0.400     0.397
emin            0.361     0.367     0.341
emax            0.416     0.416     0.416
imean          12.864    12.977    13.142
imin           11.027    11.027    11.027
imax           17.711    17.807    18.257
excite_mean     0.460     0.460     0.459
fracstop        0.053     0.054     0.054
cjmean          2.799     2.799     2.799

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        54.8      55.1      56.2
kozaiamp        179.9     179.9     179.9