Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AD298

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AD298   
# Created Tue Dec  7 02:13:15 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     54 observations of     54
# Arc:   6.02y
# First observation: 2012/11/23
#  Last observation: 2018/12/02
# Chi-squared of fit:     8.31 DOF:    102 RMS:  0.07
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.18    0.19
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.671019E-05  3.522631E-02 -1.159871E-05 -2.350140E-02  3.382827E-02 -3.301260E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  5.2061E-13 -2.2157E-13 -1.1001E-13  9.7255E-14 -6.7155E-14 -5.2222E-13
 -2.2157E-13  1.4472E-13  9.3919E-14 -8.3462E-14  5.9360E-14  4.4890E-13
 -1.1001E-13  9.3919E-14  4.1797E-13 -1.3140E-13  2.5742E-14  3.1817E-13
  9.7255E-14 -8.3462E-14 -1.3140E-13  6.9269E-14 -3.8593E-14 -2.8985E-13
 -6.7155E-14  5.9360E-14  2.5742E-14 -3.8593E-14  8.9677E-14  2.3428E-13
 -5.2222E-13  4.4890E-13  3.1817E-13 -2.8985E-13  2.3428E-13  1.5710E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -37.890730   20.825002   -0.637138   -0.460945   -0.592470  2456254.713509
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456254.5000  =  2012/11/23
Mean Anomaly:          359.30380 +/-     0.001
Argument of Peri:      311.92103 +/-     0.002
Long of Asc Node:      158.09824 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            47.20497 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.95687451 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:    435.46503463 +/-    0.4810
Time of Perihelion: 2462673.4047 +/-    5489.1
Perihelion:          18.77964338 +/-    0.0294
Aphelion:           852.15042588 +/-    0.9415
Period (y)             9087.3684 +/-     15.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           22.28129366 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y            9.15901457 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z          -18.15549005 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00408233 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00150154 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00013999 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   30.16608231 +/-    0.0002
Geocenter to KBO     29.56157426 +/-    0.0003
# Hcoef:  8.27

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AD298. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AD298) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2012 11  23.212731 02 16 53.38   -26 51 50.7   22.5z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2012 11  23.216528 02 16 53.37   -26 51 50.9         15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2015 01  07.126117 02 36 34.075  -27 09 57.56  22.5z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2015 01  14.128883 02 36 24.085  -27 02 12.44  24.5g 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2015 01  25.099647 02 36 23.598  -26 48 37.06  22.8i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2015 02  10.041580 02 36 56.351  -26 26 46.90  24.2g 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2015 02  10.042946 02 36 56.344  -26 26 46.86  23.4r 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2015 12  21.152830 02 50 10.482  -27 43 15.32  22.7z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2016 12  01.199439 03 05 52.776  -28 06 08.64  22.8r 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2016 12  02.204763 03 05 45.638  -28 05 59.18  22.3i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2017 09  25.193721 03 28 29.337  -27 17 54.10  23.6g 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2017 09  25.196360 03 28 29.339  -27 17 54.45  22.9g 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2017 09  25.198999 03 28 29.331  -27 17 54.75  23.2g 15AD298   W84  C~3wpY      
2017 09  25.203941 03 28 29.300  -27 17 55.12  22.6r 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 09  25.208918 03 28 29.283  -27 17 55.68  22.5r 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 09  25.213883 03 28 29.260  -27 17 56.22  22.5r 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.230828 03 27 58.750  -27 28 42.66  21.7z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.234971 03 27 58.735  -27 28 42.99  21.6z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.239127 03 27 58.713  -27 28 43.29  21.7z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.243270 03 27 58.691  -27 28 43.78  21.7z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.247414 03 27 58.662  -27 28 44.08  21.9z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.251545 03 27 58.644  -27 28 44.49  21.5z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.255689 03 27 58.624  -27 28 44.97  21.3z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.259844 03 27 58.607  -27 28 45.25  21.4z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.263988 03 27 58.589  -27 28 45.60  21.7z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.268143 03 27 58.565  -27 28 45.98  21.4z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  02.272298 03 27 58.543  -27 28 46.29  21.3z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.305770 03 27 15.716  -27 40 11.43  22.1z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.309925 03 27 15.685  -27 40 11.83  22.1z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.314080 03 27 15.668  -27 40 12.17  22.1z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.318212 03 27 15.647  -27 40 12.54  22.1z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.322367 03 27 15.626  -27 40 12.82  22.3z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.326534 03 27 15.594  -27 40 13.14  22.0z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.330677 03 27 15.566  -27 40 13.40  22.0z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.334833 03 27 15.543  -27 40 13.90  22.0z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.338976 03 27 15.522  -27 40 14.17  22.2z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.343131 03 27 15.493  -27 40 14.53  22.1z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  10.347298 03 27 15.472  -27 40 14.88  21.9z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  11.137333 03 27 10.866  -27 41 18.45  22.5i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  11.141835 03 27 10.838  -27 41 18.76  22.4i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  11.146337 03 27 10.810  -27 41 19.14  22.6i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  11.150828 03 27 10.774  -27 41 19.60  22.2i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 10  11.155319 03 27 10.758  -27 41 19.92  22.4i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 11  27.281453 03 21 19.367  -28 16 04.61  23.3r 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 11  28.217703 03 21 12.118  -28 16 05.88  22.3z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2017 12  09.242008 03 19 50.319  -28 14 15.85  22.3i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2018 01  07.161708 03 17 12.181  -27 52 19.42  22.6i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2018 01  07.163085 03 17 12.173  -27 52 19.23  21.8z 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2018 01  19.070191 03 16 41.216  -27 37 17.22  22.9r 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2018 01  19.071569 03 16 41.217  -27 37 17.15  24.0g 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2018 02  11.052969 03 16 49.826  -27 01 59.57  23.6g 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2018 12  02.163467 03 36 46.480  -28 19 50.49  23.5g 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2018 12  02.165180 03 36 46.468  -28 19 50.34  22.6r 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      
2018 12  02.166916 03 36 46.455  -28 19 50.49  22.2i 15AD298   W84  C~3wpZ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.09
     2   0.0000      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.12
     3   2.1216      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.00
     4   2.1408      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.09
     5   2.1708      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.01
     6   2.2145      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.14
     7   2.2145      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.06
     8   3.0744      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.06
     9   4.0219      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.10
    10   4.0246      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.08
    11   4.8377      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.12
    12   4.8377      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.02
    13   4.8377      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.03
    14   4.8378      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.07
    15   4.8378      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.01
    16   4.8378      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.08
    17   4.8570      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.00
    18   4.8570      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.04
    19   4.8570      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.11
    20   4.8570      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.01
    21   4.8570      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.06
    22   4.8571      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.02
    23   4.8571      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.08
    24   4.8571      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.01
    25   4.8571      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.03
    26   4.8571      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.02
    27   4.8571      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.08
    28   4.8791      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.05
    29   4.8791      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.01
    30   4.8791      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.01
    31   4.8791      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.05
    32   4.8792      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.01
    33   4.8792      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.02
    34   4.8792      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.10
    35   4.8792      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.06
    36   4.8792      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.00
    37   4.8792      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.02
    38   4.8792      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.04
    39   4.8814      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.00
    40   4.8814      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.05
    41   4.8814      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.04
    42   4.8814      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.06
    43   4.8814      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.02
    44   5.0105      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.09
    45   5.0130      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.04
    46   5.0432      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.05
    47   5.1224      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
    48   5.1224      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.08
    49   5.1550      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.03
    50   5.1550      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.07
    51   5.2179      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.18
    52   6.0231      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.03
    53   6.0231      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.11
    54   6.0231      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AD298    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURS  CENTAURS  CENTAURS

axisobj       434.167   434.104   434.231
ecceobj         0.957     0.957     0.957
incobj         47.128    47.128    47.128
qmin           16.192    15.753    15.561
qmax          860.349  1061.627  1044.368
amean         340.891   430.346   418.111
amin          271.353   375.976   345.079
amax          439.557   540.153   531.226
emean           0.946     0.957     0.956
emin            0.931     0.946     0.943
emax            0.957     0.966     0.967
imean          45.532    45.500    45.592
imin           43.102    42.955    42.956
imax           48.013    48.057    47.998
excite_mean     1.185     1.194     1.193
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          1.613     1.604     1.600

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       314.6     313.7     314.1
kozaiamp          4.3       3.4       4.2