Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15810

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15810     
# Created Mon Nov 11 02:06:42 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     80 observations of    104
# Arc:  21.91y
# First observation: 1994/05/12
#  Last observation: 2016/04/08
# Chi-squared of fit:   535.99 DOF:    154 RMS:  0.46
# Min/Max residuals:    -1.13    1.47
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.727858E-05  3.336479E-02 -1.995233E-06 -3.542622E-04  2.960531E-02  1.520140E-05
# Covariance matrix:
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    3.867091 -116.035606    0.225584    0.066035   -0.976794  2449484.581257
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2449484.5000  =  1994/05/12
Mean Anomaly:          357.71347 +/-     0.000
Argument of Peri:      101.81001 +/-     0.000
Long of Asc Node:      144.71964 +/-     0.000
Inclination:             3.80283 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.12336938 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     39.64782279 +/-    0.0000
Time of Perihelion: 2450063.6650 +/-       0.0
Perihelion:          34.75649552 +/-    0.0000
Aphelion:            44.53915005 +/-    0.0000
Period (y)              249.6532 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -15.42465222 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Y          -31.06858462 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z            2.27800083 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00277630 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00136118 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00003273 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   34.76156456 +/-    0.0000
Geocenter to KBO     33.77774628 +/-    0.0000
# Hcoef:  5.09

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15810. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15810) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

1994 05  12.08056  16 10 53.63   -17 08 26.8   22.5R 15810     950  A23646      
1994 05  15.04028  16 10 36.89   -17 07 38.1   22.8V 15810     950  A23646      
1994 05  16.06528  16 10 30.96   -17 07 21.6         15810     950  A23646      
1994 05  17.08472  16 10 25.13   -17 07 04.9         15810     950  A23646      
1994 06  05.06875  16 08 35.29   -17 02 15.2         15810     950   23646      
1994 06  07.3699   16 08 22.33   -17 01 43.0         15810     568  A23582      
1994 06  07.4199   16 08 22.05   -17 01 42.4         15810     568  A23583      
1994 06  07.4768   16 08 21.73   -17 01 41.6         15810     568  A23583      
1994 06  07.5313   16 08 21.42   -17 01 40.8         15810     568  A23583      
1995 02  01.23176  16 20 56.17   -17 44 07.7         15810     950  C24881      
1995 02  01.28837  16 20 56.42   -17 44 08.1         15810     950  C24881      
1995 02  02.23795  16 21 00.44   -17 44 12.4         15810     950  C24881      
1995 03  29.71221  16 21 51.41   -17 40 24.8         15810     413  C25264      
1995 03  29.76829  16 21 51.27   -17 40 24.2         15810     413  C25264      
1995 03  30.73788  16 21 48.95   -17 40 12.7         15810     413  C25264      
1995 03  30.76010  16 21 48.90   -17 40 12.5         15810     413  C25264      
1995 04  01.2084   16 21 45.19   -17 39 56.5         15810     950  C25182      
1995 04  01.2458   16 21 45.12   -17 39 56.2   22.7R 15810     950  C25029      
1997 04  07.18209  16 37 09.18   -18 17 04.4         15810     950  C30242      
1997 04  07.21675  16 37 09.07   -18 17 04.0         15810     950  C30242      
1997 05  28.54142  16 33 02.00   -18 06 04.8         15810     568  C29991      
1997 05  28.58255  16 33 01.75   -18 06 04.6         15810     568  C29991      
1997 05  30.34590  16 32 51.43   -18 05 42.6   22.6R 15810     696  C30018      
1997 05  30.39380  16 32 51.08   -18 05 42.7         15810     696  C30019      
1997 05  30.41681  16 32 50.95   -18 05 41.9         15810     696  C30019      
1997 06  11.33266  16 31 41.32   -18 03 22.5   22.6R 15810     688  C30003      
1997 06  11.34510  16 31 41.24   -18 03 22.7   23.0R 15810     688  C30003      
1997 06  11.35692  16 31 41.22   -18 03 22.7   23.9R 15810     688  C30003      
1997 06  11.36766  16 31 41.13   -18 03 22.6   22.5R 15810     688  C30003      
1997 06  11.37833  16 31 41.01   -18 03 22.0   22.8R 15810     688  C30003      
1997 06  11.39075  16 31 40.98   -18 03 22.5   22.1R 15810     688  C30003      
1998 05  03.36892  16 43 20.00   -18 29 28.4         15810     696  Ca1216      
1998 05  03.44002  16 43 19.63   -18 29 27.4         15810     696  Ca1216      
1998 05  24.03333  16 41 27.36   -18 25 14.2         15810     950  Ca1682      
1998 05  24.07462  16 41 27.28   -18 25 13.6         15810     950  Ca1682      
1998 05  25.07339  16 41 21.30   -18 25 01.8         15810     950  Ca1682      
1998 05  25.10528  16 41 21.10   -18 25 01.4         15810     950  Ca1682      
1999 04  12.57230  16 52 41.15   -18 49 44.8   23.3R 15810     568  Ca4450      
1999 04  12.61161  16 52 41.02   -18 49 44.3   23.3R 15810     568  Ca4450      
1999 05  24.31837  16 49 25.50   -18 42 05.1   22.0R 15810     697  Cb0711      
1999 05  24.35749  16 49 25.26   -18 42 04.9   22.1R 15810     697  Cb0711      
2000 06  24.99207  16 54 15.23   -18 53 06.7         15810     950  Cb6356      
2000 06  25.02533  16 54 15.04   -18 53 06.3         15810     950  Cb6356      
2001 07  28.10938  16 59 40.89   -19 06 21.0   22.4R 15810     250  S~1WuS      
2001 07  28.11328  16 59 40.88   -19 06 21.0         15810     250  S~1WuS      
2001 07  28.11523  16 59 40.87   -19 06 21.0         15810     250  S~1WuS      
2001 07  28.11914  16 59 40.85   -19 06 21.0         15810     250  S~1WuS      
2001 07  28.12109  16 59 40.84   -19 06 21.0         15810     250  S~1WuS      
2001 07  28.12500  16 59 40.83   -19 06 21.0         15810     250  S~1WuS      
2002 10  03.24805  17 07 44.83   -19 27 16.7   23.2R 15810     250  S~1WuS      
2002 10  03.25195  17 07 44.84   -19 27 16.7         15810     250  S~1WuS      
2002 10  03.25781  17 07 44.87   -19 27 16.8         15810     250  S~1WuS      
2002 10  03.26367  17 07 44.89   -19 27 16.9         15810     250  S~1WuS      
2015 06  12.555267 18 55 14.192  -20 10 59.55  22.0R 15810     568  C~1T6l      
2015 06  12.580509 18 55 14.052  -20 10 59.65  22.1R 15810     568  C~1T6l      
2015 11  02.03183  17 14 29.448  -09 21 29.45  17.8V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2015 11  02.07350  17 14 28.926  -09 21 21.60  17.9V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2015 11  02.11516  17 14 28.344  -09 21 14.09  17.8V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2015 11  02.15683  17 14 27.796  -09 21 06.93  18.1V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2015 11  02.22765  18 49 36.57   -20 26 22.0   22.8R 15810     250  S~1uGH      
2015 11  02.23354  18 49 36.60   -20 26 22.8         15810     250  S~1uGH      
2015 11  02.23982  18 49 36.62   -20 26 21.6         15810     250  S~1uGH      
2015 11  02.24600  18 49 36.65   -20 26 22.4         15810     250  S~1uGH      
2015 11  02.25218  18 49 36.68   -20 26 23.1         15810     250  S~1uGH      
2016 04  07.79283  15 41 03.767  +12 12 24.34  17.0V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  07.81366  15 41 01.882  +12 12 49.07  17.2V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  07.85434  15 40 58.214  +12 13 37.42  16.8V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  07.87518  15 40 56.308  +12 14 02.53  16.8V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  07.89601  15 40 54.417  +12 14 27.18  16.9V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  07.91684  15 40 52.530  +12 14 51.90  17.3V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  07.93768  15 40 50.650  +12 15 16.65  17.4V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  07.95851  15 40 48.730  +12 15 41.12  16.9V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  07.97934  15 40 46.868  +12 16 06.36  16.7V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.00018  15 40 44.950  +12 16 31.27  16.9V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.02101  15 40 43.092  +12 16 55.91  16.7V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.06268  15 40 39.290  +12 17 45.68  17.1V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.10434  15 40 35.484  +12 18 35.80  16.9V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.14601  15 40 31.717  +12 19 25.59  17.2V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.18768  15 40 27.869  +12 20 15.14  17.0V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.22934  15 40 24.096  +12 21 05.34  16.9V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.27101  15 40 20.273  +12 21 55.23  17.2V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.31268  15 40 16.496  +12 22 45.17  16.6V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.35434  15 40 12.661  +12 23 34.94  17.0V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2016 04  08.39601  15 40 08.828  +12 24 25.22  17.4V 15810     C54  S~1tcJ      
2017 06  21.520382 19 09 55.247  -19 59 48.99  23.5G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2017 07  25.414274 19 06 40.796  -20 05 44.03  23.8G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2017 08  12.300240 19 05 09.914  -20 08 59.56  22.7G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2018 05  21.589386 19 20 00.500  -19 47 58.01  23.5G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2018 06  06.494605 19 18 56.241  -19 49 33.86  22.7G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2018 06  21.505494 19 17 39.965  -19 51 45.66  23.1G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2018 08  05.313432 19 13 28.149  -20 00 21.19  23.3G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2019 06  12.527106 19 26 07.811  -19 41 00.60  21.7G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2019 06  12.544793 19 26 07.739  -19 41 00.02  22.5G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2019 08  24.297762 19 19 43.518  -19 55 33.44  23.1G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2019 08  24.318280 19 19 43.423  -19 55 33.89  22.4G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2019 08  24.328526 19 19 43.402  -19 55 33.80  22.9G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2020 05  24.549395 19 34 58.620  -19 28 06.41  22.8G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2020 06  16.451651 19 33 21.624  -19 31 17.25  23.7G 15810     F51  C~41Ga      
2021 07  09.305140 19 38 53.972  -19 24 31.90  23.0G 15810     G37  C~4vIC      
2021 07  09.351900 19 38 53.732  -19 24 32.80        15810     G37  C~4vIC      
2021 07  09.397990 19 38 53.451  -19 24 33.49        15810     G37  C~4vIC      
2023 08  14.211750 19 50 39.533  -19 08 12.37  22.2G 15810     G37  C~789z      
2023 08  14.259810 19 50 39.267  -19 08 12.96        15810     G37  C~789z      
2023 08  14.307830 19 50 39.043  -19 08 14.12        15810     G37  C~789z      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.35
     2   0.0081      0.00     0.51       0.00     0.54
     3   0.0109      0.00    -0.57       0.00     0.34
     4   0.0137      0.00    -0.33       0.00     0.48
     5   0.0657      0.00    -0.26       0.00    -0.16
     6   0.0720      0.00     1.21       0.00     0.17
     7   0.0721      0.00     1.33       0.00     0.08
     8   0.0723      0.00     1.43       0.00     0.10
     9   0.0724      0.00     1.47       0.00     0.14
    10   0.7259      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.38
    11   0.7261      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.25
    12   0.7287      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.12
    13   0.8806      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.32
    14   0.8807      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.36
    15   0.8834      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.04
    16   0.8834      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.01
    17   0.8874      0.00    -0.52       0.00    -0.70
    18   0.8875      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.84
    19   2.9051      0.00    -0.23       0.00    -0.25
    20   2.9052      0.00    -0.31       0.00    -0.24
    21   3.0458      0.00    -0.35       0.00     0.01
    22   3.0459      0.00    -0.43       0.00    -0.32
    23   3.0507      0.00     0.24       0.00    -0.17
    24   3.0508      0.00    -0.72       0.00    -0.87
    25   3.0509      0.00    -0.61       0.00    -0.36
    26   3.0835      0.00    -0.29       0.00     0.65
    27   3.0835      0.00    -0.40       0.00     0.31
    28   3.0836      0.00     0.33       0.00     0.18
    29   3.0836      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.16
    30   3.0836      0.00    -0.95       0.00     0.65
    31   3.0837      0.00    -0.31       0.00     0.01
    32   3.9761      0.00    -0.83       0.00    -0.58
    33   3.9763      0.00    -1.00       0.00    -0.46
    34   4.0327      0.00    -1.03       0.00    -0.25
    35   4.0328      0.00     1.43       0.00    -0.14
    36   4.0356      0.00    -0.97       0.00    -0.23
    37   4.0357      0.00    -1.13       0.00    -0.21
    38   4.9185      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.08
    39   4.9186      0.00    -0.28       0.00     0.03
    40   5.0328      0.00     0.22       0.00    -0.01
    41   5.0329      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.23
    42   6.1216      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.14
    43   6.1217      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.05
    44   7.2116      0.00    -0.21       0.00     0.43
    45   7.2116      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.43
    46   7.2116      0.00    -0.22       0.00     0.43
    47   7.2116      0.00    -0.32       0.00     0.43
    48   7.2116      0.00    -0.37       0.00     0.43
    49   7.2116      0.00    -0.32       0.00     0.43
    50   8.3947      0.00     0.91       0.00    -0.52
    51   8.3947      0.00     0.82       0.00    -0.48
    52   8.3947      0.00     0.92       0.00    -0.51
    53   8.3948      0.00     0.87       0.00    -0.55
    54  21.0855      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.06
    55  21.0856      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.12
    56  21.4756      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    57  21.4757      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    58  21.4758      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    59  21.4759      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    60  21.4761      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.40
    61  21.4761      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.40
    62  21.4761      0.00    -0.28       0.00     0.79
    63  21.4762      0.00    -0.26       0.00    -0.01
    64  21.4762      0.00    -0.24       0.00    -0.72
    65  21.9075      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    66  21.9076      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    67  21.9077      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    68  21.9077      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    69  21.9078      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    70  21.9078      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    71  21.9079      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    72  21.9079      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    73  21.9080      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    74  21.9081      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    75  21.9081      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    76  21.9082      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    77  21.9083      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    78  21.9085      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    79  21.9086      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    80  21.9087      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    81  21.9088      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    82  21.9089      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    83  21.9090      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    84  21.9091      0.00 (*******)      0.00 (*******)
    85  23.1114      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.09
    86  23.2042      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.12
    87  23.2532      0.00    -0.26       0.00     0.07
    88  24.0260      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.06
    89  24.0696      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.04
    90  24.1107      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.10
    91  24.2334      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.42
    92  25.0854      0.00    -0.45       0.00    -0.29
    93  25.0855      0.00    -0.21       0.00     0.45
    94  25.2846      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.07
    95  25.2847      0.00    -0.34       0.00    -0.15
    96  25.2847      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.05
    97  26.0355      0.00    -0.22       0.00     0.08
    98  26.0982      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.25
    99  27.1601      0.00    -0.55       0.00     0.04
   100  27.1602      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.19
   101  27.1603      0.00    -0.31       0.00    -0.23
   102  29.2570      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.08
   103  29.2572      0.00    -0.53       0.00     0.09
   104  29.2573      0.00    -0.23       0.00    -0.32

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15810    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.174    39.174    39.174
ecceobj         0.113     0.113     0.113
incobj          3.802     3.802     3.802
qmin           33.804    33.804    33.804
qmax           45.729    45.729    45.731
amean          39.459    39.459    39.459
amin           39.014    39.014    39.014
amax           39.963    39.962    39.963
emean           0.125     0.125     0.125
emin            0.105     0.105     0.105
emax            0.145     0.145     0.145
imean           3.429     3.429     3.429
imin            2.545     2.545     2.545
imax            4.276     4.276     4.276
excite_mean     0.139     0.139     0.139
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.030     3.030     3.030

libcent 0       180.8     180.8     180.7
libamp  0        96.8      96.8      96.9
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       182.9     182.9     182.9
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9