Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 10AV153

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 10AV153   
# Created Fri Jun  5 01:10:14 2020
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   91 observations of   91
# Arc:  10.05y
# First observation: 2010/01/06
#  Last observation: 2020/01/24
# Chi-squared of fit:    44.86 DOF:  176 RMS:  0.12
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.51    0.52
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.951938E-05  4.537822E-02 -2.893451E-06 -5.526789E-03  3.519392E-02 -7.055558E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  1.1685E-13 -3.5378E-14 -5.0190E-15  3.0617E-15  7.7841E-15 -5.7347E-14
 -3.5378E-14  1.9106E-14  3.1555E-15 -2.1091E-15  9.4677E-15  3.9665E-14
 -5.0190E-15  3.1555E-15  7.7984E-14 -1.2114E-14 -2.1121E-16  7.5767E-15
  3.0617E-15 -2.1091E-15 -1.2114E-14  2.4839E-15 -8.3128E-16 -4.9831E-15
  7.7841E-15  9.4677E-15 -2.1121E-16 -8.3128E-16  7.5202E-14  1.6409E-14
 -5.7347E-14  3.9665E-14  7.5767E-15 -4.9831E-15  1.6409E-14  9.3649E-14
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -3.888118  116.809903    0.185244   -0.065735   -0.967418  2455202.916166
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455202.5000  =  2010/01/06
Mean Anomaly:          356.55401 +/-     0.001
Argument of Peri:      214.39548 +/-     0.002
Long of Asc Node:      268.24616 +/-     0.000
Inclination:             7.91899 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.25301019 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     39.28522553 +/-    0.0018
Time of Perihelion: 2456063.4021 +/-       6.0
Perihelion:          29.34566325 +/-    0.0017
Aphelion:            49.22478782 +/-    0.0025
Period (y)              246.2363 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -13.05485907 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Y           26.24716562 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z           -1.92680935 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00310987 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00166153 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00042530 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   29.37782087 +/-    0.0002
Geocenter to KBO     28.41404298 +/-    0.0002
# Hcoef:  7.27

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 10AV153. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (10AV153) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2010 01  06.41540  07 52 15.978  +16 58 37.49  21.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 01  06.42428  07 52 15.904  +16 58 37.90  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 01  23.36504  07 50 18.127  +17 02 57.60  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 01  23.37294  07 50 18.087  +17 02 57.70  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 01  26.32089  07 49 57.795  +17 03 46.52  21.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 01  26.32861  07 49 57.770  +17 03 46.81  22.2G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 02  04.47847  07 48 56.708  +17 06 20.19  22.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 02  04.48784  07 48 56.651  +17 06 20.09  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 05  06.30223  07 46 36.173  +17 18 02.77  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2010 05  06.31092  07 46 36.190  +17 18 02.00  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2011 01  23.53504  08 00 42.881  +16 14 22.52  22.1G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2011 01  23.54829  08 00 42.774  +16 14 22.93  22.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2012 01  15.54580  08 11 59.818  +15 21 17.55  23.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2012 01  15.55848  08 11 59.713  +15 21 17.93  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2012 01  26.50056  08 10 44.485  +15 24 42.56  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2012 01  26.51348  08 10 44.395  +15 24 42.64  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2012 10  30.62188  08 26 48.440  +14 25 43.91  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 01  17.48303  08 21 56.929  +14 29 37.46  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 01  17.49839  08 21 56.819  +14 29 37.79  21.5G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 01  17.51378  08 21 56.709  +14 29 38.07  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 01  17.52923  08 21 56.601  +14 29 38.43  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 01  21.47802  08 21 29.706  +14 30 55.64  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 01  21.49100  08 21 29.634  +14 30 56.02  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 10  22.64804  08 36 21.569  +13 35 29.47  21.5G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 12  25.61071  08 34 30.420  +13 29 20.77  22.1G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 12  25.62265  08 34 30.348  +13 29 20.93  22.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 12  31.54715  08 33 56.755  +13 30 35.32  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 12  31.56172  08 33 56.662  +13 30 35.58  22.1G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 12  31.57635  08 33 56.573  +13 30 35.79  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2013 12  31.59097  08 33 56.490  +13 30 36.05  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2014 05  21.25997  08 27 12.352  +14 02 18.87  22.3G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2014 05  21.26549  08 27 12.381  +14 02 19.11  22.1G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2014 05  21.27105  08 27 12.405  +14 02 18.82  22.2G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2014 05  21.27656  08 27 12.434  +14 02 18.86  22.1G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2014 11  29.52302  08 46 12.068  +12 32 07.46  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2014 11  29.53561  08 46 12.078  +12 32 07.24  22.1G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2014 11  29.54824  08 46 12.025  +12 32 07.21  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2015 02  19.28799  08 38 40.703  +12 52 36.39  21.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2015 02  19.30093  08 38 40.614  +12 52 36.69  21.5G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2015 02  19.31369  08 38 40.544  +12 52 37.05  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2015 02  19.32655  08 38 40.469  +12 52 37.40  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 01  04.54956  08 53 35.206  +11 38 50.64  21.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 01  04.56096  08 53 35.146  +11 38 50.76  21.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 01  04.57235  08 53 35.077  +11 38 50.74  21.2G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 01  04.58377  08 53 35.021  +11 38 51.15  21.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 01  05.59295  08 53 29.225  +11 39 06.53  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 01  07.54242  08 53 17.821  +11 39 37.86  21.5G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 01  07.55468  08 53 17.751  +11 39 38.06  21.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 01  21.38429  08 51 51.115  +11 44 05.24  22.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 02  01.33875  08 50 38.539  +11 48 21.23  22.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 02  28.26761  08 47 49.017  +12 00 03.00  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 02  28.28123  08 47 48.946  +12 00 03.36  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 02  28.29476  08 47 48.864  +12 00 03.68  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 02  28.30827  08 47 48.787  +12 00 04.03  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 03  07.28493  08 47 06.577  +12 03 26.58  21.1G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 03  25.37356  08 45 53.470  +12 10 12.19  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2016 04  20.28876  08 45 16.983  +12 16 19.37  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 01  26.38183  09 01 06.708  +10 48 18.94  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 01  26.39260  09 01 06.636  +10 48 19.10  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 01  26.40338  09 01 06.561  +10 48 19.42  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 01  26.41433  09 01 06.492  +10 48 19.61  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 01  27.52529  09 00 59.179  +10 48 46.59  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 01  27.53745  09 00 59.096  +10 48 46.87  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 01  27.54963  09 00 59.016  +10 48 47.07  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 01  27.56188  09 00 58.935  +10 48 47.53  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  03.47842  09 00 13.253  +10 51 42.52  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  03.50115  09 00 13.099  +10 51 43.21  21.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  19.24113  08 58 31.512  +10 58 51.90  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  19.25171  08 58 31.420  +10 58 52.22  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  19.26230  08 58 31.356  +10 58 52.23  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  19.27283  08 58 31.295  +10 58 52.74  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  21.33215  08 58 18.625  +10 59 50.14  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  21.34377  08 58 18.551  +10 59 50.35  22.2G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  21.35551  08 58 18.483  +10 59 50.81  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 02  21.36726  08 58 18.412  +10 59 51.12  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 03  27.35106  08 55 35.907  +11 14 16.29  21.8G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 03  27.37388  08 55 35.840  +11 14 17.05  20.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 03  27.38524  08 55 35.792  +11 14 16.95  21.5G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2017 04  09.33154  08 55 05.898  +11 18 14.41  22.0G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2018 01  16.41314  09 11 57.739  +09 45 37.00  21.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2018 01  16.42500  09 11 57.667  +09 45 37.22  21.4G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2018 01  16.43684  09 11 57.593  +09 45 37.49  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2018 01  16.44868  09 11 57.517  +09 45 37.73  21.5G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2018 02  20.28970  09 08 13.951  +10 00 41.72  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2018 02  20.30133  09 08 13.870  +10 00 42.16  21.7G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2018 02  20.31295  09 08 13.807  +10 00 42.39  21.9G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2018 02  20.32462  09 08 13.731  +10 00 42.82  21.6G 10AV153   F51  C~344v      
2020 01  24.44414  09 30 22.973  +07 48 36.94  22.0w 10AV153   F51  C~3ceq      
2020 01  24.45760  09 30 22.874  +07 48 37.26  22.0w 10AV153   F51  C~3ceq      
2020 01  24.47107  09 30 22.810  +07 48 37.62  22.0w 10AV153   F51  C~3ceq      
2020 01  24.48460  09 30 22.699  +07 48 37.96  21.8w 10AV153   F51  C~3ceq      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.05
  2   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.33
  3   0.0464      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.03
  4   0.0464      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.06
  5   0.0545      0.00    -0.17       0.00     0.05
  6   0.0545      0.00     0.26       0.00     0.21
  7   0.0796      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.11
  8   0.0796      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.15
  9   0.3282      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.25
 10   0.3283      0.00    -0.26       0.00    -0.45
 11   1.0462      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.06
 12   1.0462      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.12
 13   2.0236      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.21
 14   2.0237      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.05
 15   2.0536      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.04
 16   2.0537      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.13
 17   2.8151      0.00     0.31       0.00    -0.12
 18   3.0310      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.00
 19   3.0310      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.03
 20   3.0311      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.02
 21   3.0311      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.09
 22   3.0419      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.07
 23   3.0420      0.00     0.24       0.00     0.05
 24   3.7926      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.18
 25   3.9677      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.03
 26   3.9677      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.00
 27   3.9839      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.08
 28   3.9840      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.02
 29   3.9840      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.01
 30   3.9841      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.05
 31   4.3692      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.17
 32   4.3692      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.13
 33   4.3692      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.10
 34   4.3692      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.00
 35   4.8956      0.00    -0.51       0.00     0.22
 36   4.8956      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.05
 37   4.8956      0.00    -0.25       0.00     0.07
 38   5.1194      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.01
 39   5.1195      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.04
 40   5.1195      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.00
 41   5.1195      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.03
 42   5.9935      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.04
 43   5.9936      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.09
 44   5.9936      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.28
 45   5.9936      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.04
 46   5.9964      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.11
 47   6.0017      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.02
 48   6.0018      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.01
 49   6.0396      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.05
 50   6.0696      0.00     0.27       0.00    -0.32
 51   6.1433      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.01
 52   6.1434      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
 53   6.1434      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.04
 54   6.1434      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.04
 55   6.1653      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.09
 56   6.2148      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.05
 57   6.2858      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.12
 58   7.0553      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.08
 59   7.0554      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.03
 60   7.0554      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.03
 61   7.0554      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.04
 62   7.0585      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.01
 63   7.0585      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.01
 64   7.0585      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.10
 65   7.0586      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.06
 66   7.0775      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.07
 67   7.0776      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.03
 68   7.1207      0.00     0.22       0.00     0.08
 69   7.1207      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.10
 70   7.1207      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.19
 71   7.1208      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.02
 72   7.1264      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.03
 73   7.1264      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.08
 74   7.1265      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.05
 75   7.1265      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.03
 76   7.2195      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.23
 77   7.2196      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.52
 78   7.2196      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.18
 79   7.2551      0.00     0.21       0.00    -0.06
 80   8.0274      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.02
 81   8.0274      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.04
 82   8.0274      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.01
 83   8.0275      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.02
 84   8.1229      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.03
 85   8.1229      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.07
 86   8.1229      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.04
 87   8.1230      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.05
 88  10.0480      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.01
 89  10.0480      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.00
 90  10.0481      0.00     0.24       0.00     0.04
 91  10.0481      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.07

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

10AV153    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.651    39.651    39.651
ecceobj         0.259     0.259     0.259
incobj          7.898     7.898     7.898
qmin           28.831    28.805    28.797
qmax           50.905    50.905    50.906
amean          39.456    39.456    39.456
amin           38.872    38.879    38.879
amax           40.126    40.125    40.126
emean           0.254     0.254     0.254
emin            0.239     0.238     0.240
emax            0.269     0.269     0.269
imean           9.561     9.561     9.561
imin            9.003     9.007     9.019
imax           10.154    10.154    10.154
excite_mean     0.304     0.304     0.304
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.946     2.946     2.946

libcent 0       178.9     179.7     179.3
libamp  0       127.5     128.4     127.9
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       183.1     183.5     183.1
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0