How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?

Brian Enke

SwRI

Boulder, CO

benke@boulder.swri.edu

AUTHOR:

Shadows of Medusa

Brainstorming....

Follow any thread of thought.

Never ridicule or dismiss any idea.

Write everything down!!

How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?

Paul Recer (AP), Gregg Easterbrook (New Republic), et al:

ONE TRILLION DOLLARS

“Huh???”

How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?

Bob Zubrin, et al:

ABOUT TWO BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR*

* INVESTMENT per YEAR!

How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?

President Bush, Sean O'Keefe, et al:

PAY AS YOU GO

$6 billion per year?

How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?

$2b / year?

$6b / year?

More?

Less?

Somewhere inbetween?

All of these estimates are possible.

US deficit spending

(PAYG = PWCWA)

CHEAPER MISSIONS ARE EASIER TO SELL

What IS a Mars Mission, anyway?

How Low Can We Go?

Well, What Do You Want To Do?

We Need....

A Baseline Mission!!

Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)

We Need....

A Baseline Mission!!

Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)

Risk assessment

We Need....

A Baseline Mission!!

Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)

Risk assessment

Timeframe

We Need....

A Baseline Mission!!

Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)

Risk assessment

Timeframe

Investment per year

Baseline Mission: Mars Direct
(NASA estimates from 2003)

ROI: Good science

Crew of 4 for 2 years

500 km surface range

Payload: 54 tonnes

Risk: Medium

7 years to develop

$3.5 billion / year

Mars Direct $$ Assumptions
(from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)

Mars Direct $$ Assumptions
(from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)

Baseline Mission: Assumptions

Ongoing investment vs. development investment

Divide mission investment by 2 for ongoing (per year)

$25m/tonne-to-Mars per launch (or $1b/Ares)

$250m/lander, $1b/ERV

How Low Can We Go?

Zero Risk, Zero Investment Mission
(Procrastinator's Paradise)

Do Nothing

Cancel the whole space program

Donate space shuttles to museums

Reduce the US federal deficit by $16 billion (to 429 billion)

ROI: No investment

Crew of 0 for (Inf) years

0 km surface range

Payload: 0 tonnes

Risk: Zero

0 years to develop

$0 billion / year

Robotic Missions
(Goodlife)

Repeat the past 30 years

Do Mars exploration solely with robotics

Develop lots of human mission plans and theories

Give talks at seminars

Do some remote science to satisfy pesky scientists

ROI: Minimal Science

Crew of 0 for (inf) years

1 km surface range (now)

Payload: < 5 tonnes

Risk: Low

0 years to develop

$1 billion / year

Find The Robot

Absolute Minimal Human Mission
(Millionaire Burial)

Send 1 person, crash landing

No equipment

No life support

No return: Dead On Arrival

ROI: RIP

Crew of 1 for 0 years

0 km surface range

Payload: <1 tonne

Risk: Low to (Inf)

0 years to develop

$0.1 billion / year

Minimal Living-Human Mission
(Lonely Planets)

Send 1 person safely

No equipment

Minimal life support for 1 year ($300m hab, no CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water)

No return: Die On Mars

Per Mission: $700m

ROI: Tech demonstration

Crew of 1 for 2 years

0 km surface range

Payload: 12 tonnes

Risk: Low (volunteer)

5 years to develop

$0.35 billion / year

Long Term Minimal Mission
(Settlement)

Send 3 people safely

Base building equipment

CELSS life support for 6 years ($1b hab, 2 Ares)

No return: Die On Mars

Per Mission: $4b

ROI: Mars settlement

Crew of 3 for (Inf) years

500 km surface range

Payload: 50 tonnes

Risk: Medium (volunteer)

7 years to develop

$2 billion / year

Minimal Return Mission
(Lonely Science)

Send 1 scientist safely

Science equipment, ATV

Minimal life support for 2 years ($300m hab, no CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water, 2 Ares)

Return: ERV

Per Mission: $4b

ROI: Minimal Science

Crew of 1 for 2 years

10 km surface range

Payload: 40 tonnes

Risk: High

7 years to develop

$2 billion / year

Mars Direct

Send 4 people safely

Science equipment, Rover

CELSS life support for 2 years ($700m hab, 2 Ares)

Return: ERV

Per Mission: $7b

ROI: Good science

Crew of 4 for 2 years

500 km surface range

Payload: 54 tonnes

Risk: Medium

7 years to develop

$3.5 billion / year

NASA Mars Reference Mission
(Nuclear Propulsion is our Best Friend)

Send 6 or more people safely

Science equipment, Rover

CELSS life support for 2 years ($1.5b hab, 3 Ares)

Return: ERV (orbit+surface)

Per Mission: $12b (assume $2b for propulsion)

ROI: Good science, tech

Crew of 6+ for 2 years

500 km surface range

Payload: 100 tonnes

Risk: High

10 years to develop

$6 billion / year

How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?

How Low Can We Go?

Well, What Do You Want To Do?

We Need....

A Baseline Mission!!

Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)

Risk assessment

Timeframe

Investment per year

http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~benke/present/mars/missioninvest2004.html

This presentation may be freely distributed. Please contact the author with any suggestions or corrections.

Brian Enke

Southwest Research Institute

benke@boulder.swri.edu

Author: Shadows of Medusa

www.shadowsofmedusa.com

Brian Enke

2002-09-04T14:37:38

Brian Enke