The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 21DP15 # Created Sat May 4 01:18:45 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 12 observations of 12 # Arc: 3.75y # First observation: 2018/03/08 # Last observation: 2021/12/07 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000068 0.007222 0.000001 0.000263 0.012750 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.95 DOF: 18 RMS: 0.11 # Min/Max residuals: -0.20 0.32 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 8.996086E-06 7.309008E-03 -5.177437E-07 2.657970E-04 1.278575E-02 2.146304E-03 # Covariance matrix: 6.5996E-13 -4.0172E-13 2.7745E-15 -7.8122E-15 -3.3992E-13 -7.9521E-12 -4.0172E-13 4.5145E-13 -4.6169E-15 1.1934E-14 4.1483E-13 1.1943E-11 2.7745E-15 -4.6169E-15 4.9856E-13 -1.6202E-13 -4.0756E-15 -1.3920E-13 -7.8122E-15 1.1934E-14 -1.6202E-13 7.0276E-14 1.5273E-14 3.8646E-13 -3.3992E-13 4.1483E-13 -4.0756E-15 1.5273E-14 1.0367E-12 1.6277E-11 -7.9521E-12 1.1943E-11 -1.3920E-13 3.8646E-13 1.6277E-11 3.9232E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.940040 122.453874 -0.693656 -0.036267 -0.709101 2458185.555752 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2458180.5000 = 2018/03/03 Mean Anomaly: 121.29746 +/- 0.271 Argument of Peri: 154.50615 +/- 0.215 Long of Asc Node: 177.27225 +/- 0.027 Inclination: 3.58590 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.40155403 +/- 0.0009 Semi-Major Axis: 61.00422790 +/- 0.0440 Time of Perihelion: 2399541.3695 +/- 114.8 Perihelion: 36.50773417 +/- 0.0602 Aphelion: 85.50072163 +/- 0.0820 Period (y) 476.4838 +/- 0.52 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -42.88328129 +/- 0.0034 Ecliptic Y 66.13040797 +/- 0.0052 Ecliptic Z -4.01164542 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00156224 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00045464 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00003312 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 78.91957914 +/- 0.0048 Geocenter to KBO 78.21206198 +/- 0.0062 # Hcoef: 5.80
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 21DP15. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (21DP15) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2018 03 08.054951 08 16 07.62 +16 44 50.8 23.9r 21DP15 W84 C~5zHK 2018 03 08.057014 08 16 07.61 +16 44 50.5 24.1r 21DP15 W84 C~5zHK 2019 02 28.130069 08 18 07.30 +16 38 56.9 24.6V 21DP15 W84 C~5zHK 2019 12 31.291072 08 22 27.58 +16 24 52.8 24.5V 21DP15 W84 C~5zHK 2019 12 31.293140 08 22 27.59 +16 24 52.8 24.5V 21DP15 W84 C~5zHK 2021 02 16.32869 08 21 57.884 +16 27 37.76 25.0r 21DP15 568 C~5Jzg 2021 02 16.42953 08 21 57.627 +16 27 38.73 24.9r 21DP15 568 C~5Jzg 2021 04 06.00585 08 20 34.463 +16 33 51.08 25.2r 21DP15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 04 07.00844 08 20 33.828 +16 33 55.21 25.3r 21DP15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 12 06.26914 08 26 42.087 +16 12 35.81 25.1r 21DP15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 12 06.33038 08 26 41.970 +16 12 35.83 25.1r 21DP15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 12 07.28730 08 26 40.312 +16 12 40.25 25.0r 21DP15 304 C~5Jzg
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.17
2 0.0000 -0.07 -0.00 -0.32 -0.15
3 0.9776 1755.11 -0.00 40.50 -0.14
4 1.8158 5593.12 -0.14 71.91 0.03
5 1.8158 5593.26 0.08 71.94 0.06
6 2.9467 5139.07 0.07 134.06 -0.03
7 2.9470 5135.24 0.15 134.16 -0.03
8 3.0799 3885.13 -0.03 222.53 0.32
9 3.0827 3875.30 -0.11 224.46 -0.04
10 3.7487 9332.89 0.05 209.53 0.07
11 3.7489 9331.24 -0.03 209.15 -0.20
12 3.7515 9306.94 -0.06 207.82 -0.06
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
21DP15 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 61.417 61.551 61.288 ecceobj 0.402 0.405 0.400 incobj 3.604 3.603 3.603 qmin 35.887 35.769 35.964 qmax 88.585 88.689 87.606 amean 61.306 61.263 60.737 amin 60.028 60.185 59.818 amax 62.540 62.578 62.135 emean 0.402 0.404 0.395 emin 0.387 0.388 0.383 emax 0.416 0.419 0.410 imean 3.813 3.686 3.848 imin 3.376 3.304 3.374 imax 4.419 4.166 4.455 excite_mean 0.408 0.409 0.401 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.098 3.096 3.099 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 181.0 178.3 180.4 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0