The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 21DM15 # Created Sat May 4 01:18:45 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 16 observations of 16 # Arc: 3.09y # First observation: 2018/11/03 # Last observation: 2021/12/07 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000060 0.021843 -0.000001 0.000845 0.022919 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.29 DOF: 26 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.19 0.17 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.458422E-05 2.166513E-02 1.452580E-07 8.392008E-04 2.270099E-02 -1.649457E-04 # Covariance matrix: 8.8225E-13 3.0401E-14 -3.1840E-15 1.1635E-14 5.1738E-13 4.4897E-12 3.0401E-14 4.4140E-13 -6.6744E-15 1.8491E-14 4.3289E-13 7.0851E-12 -3.1840E-15 -6.6744E-15 4.3703E-13 -1.7512E-13 -7.6151E-15 -1.3309E-13 1.1635E-14 1.8491E-14 -1.7512E-13 8.9169E-14 2.3391E-14 3.7194E-13 5.1738E-13 4.3289E-13 -7.6151E-15 2.3391E-14 7.4736E-13 8.9885E-12 4.4897E-12 7.0851E-12 -1.3309E-13 3.7194E-13 8.9885E-12 1.4255E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.936544 108.794548 0.923562 -0.005986 -0.374499 2458425.784105 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2458420.5000 = 2018/10/29 Mean Anomaly: 307.35932 +/- 0.409 Argument of Peri: 33.20031 +/- 0.466 Long of Asc Node: 130.48559 +/- 0.007 Inclination: 2.38749 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.03709300 +/- 0.0005 Semi-Major Axis: 45.40966806 +/- 0.0056 Time of Perihelion: 2474763.8051 +/- 126.9 Perihelion: 43.72528708 +/- 0.0226 Aphelion: 47.09404905 +/- 0.0227 Period (y) 306.0065 +/- 0.06 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -13.43689948 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 42.34118466 +/- 0.0016 Ecliptic Z -0.72007502 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00246009 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00086150 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00010133 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 44.42797198 +/- 0.0015 Geocenter to KBO 44.05093585 +/- 0.0017 # Hcoef: 7.27
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 21DM15. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (21DM15) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2018 11 03.283304 07 20 50.97 +21 11 37.1 24.0g 21DM15 W84 C~5zHK 2019 03 01.132903 07 13 08.24 +21 26 30.9 21DM15 W84 C~5zHK 2019 03 01.134981 07 13 08.25 +21 26 30.7 21DM15 W84 C~5zHK 2020 01 03.249485 07 22 34.82 +21 10 51.9 23.4V 21DM15 W84 C~5zHK 2020 01 03.251564 07 22 34.82 +21 10 51.9 23.5V 21DM15 W84 C~5zHK 2021 02 17.22589 07 24 24.954 +21 10 45.84 23.8r 21DM15 568 C~5Jzg 2021 02 17.40002 07 24 24.282 +21 10 47.42 23.6r 21DM15 568 C~5Jzg 2021 03 09.03994 07 23 26.190 +21 13 11.42 23.9G 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 03 09.09481 07 23 26.060 +21 13 11.89 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 03 17.09111 07 23 11.657 +21 13 52.70 23.9r 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 03 18.01487 07 23 10.373 +21 13 56.76 23.9r 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 04 11.99946 07 23 06.386 +21 14 44.81 23.8r 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 10 30.36559 07 36 44.173 +20 46 41.11 23.7r 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 12 06.23741 07 35 19.896 +20 49 38.82 24.0r 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 12 07.24533 07 35 16.107 +20 49 47.11 23.8r 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg 2021 12 07.31260 07 35 15.849 +20 49 47.74 23.6r 21DM15 304 C~5Jzg
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.09
2 0.3227 -6529.55 -0.14 36.41 0.10
3 0.3227 -6529.39 0.11 36.23 -0.08
4 1.1662 1444.69 -0.14 156.84 -0.06
5 1.1662 1444.69 0.01 156.84 -0.06
6 2.2914 2970.63 0.03 368.97 -0.07
7 2.2919 2961.10 -0.19 369.19 -0.05
8 2.3457 2136.34 -0.01 396.16 -0.05
9 2.3458 2134.47 -0.13 396.36 0.09
10 2.3677 1929.32 0.17 408.31 -0.05
11 2.3702 1910.97 0.15 409.79 -0.01
12 2.4386 1849.00 0.03 449.50 0.01
13 2.9900 13441.74 -0.02 521.16 -0.04
14 3.0909 12242.16 -0.12 506.25 0.14
15 3.0937 12188.21 0.06 505.94 -0.01
16 3.0939 12184.53 0.09 505.98 0.05
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
21DM15 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 45.875 45.888 45.862 ecceobj 0.038 0.039 0.038 incobj 2.390 2.389 2.389 qmin 43.083 43.116 43.125 qmax 48.221 48.464 48.400 amean 45.655 45.669 45.642 amin 45.309 45.310 45.279 amax 46.002 46.046 46.024 emean 0.038 0.039 0.038 emin 0.025 0.026 0.025 emax 0.050 0.053 0.052 imean 1.442 1.441 1.443 imin 1.008 1.008 1.009 imax 1.815 1.813 1.818 excite_mean 0.046 0.047 0.046 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.119 3.119 3.119 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 188.5 188.8 187.6 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9