Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VS165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VS165   
# Created Wed Feb 20 02:10:38 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   23 observations of   23
# Arc:   2.35y
# First observation: 2015/08/11
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000209   0.024967  -0.000013   0.000468   0.025466   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     7.16 DOF:   40 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.22    0.26
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.532060E-05  2.460841E-02  1.721197E-07  4.570230E-04  2.523774E-02  5.279653E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  3.3498E-13  2.5813E-14  9.6524E-15 -3.9304E-16  2.6123E-13  3.8651E-12
  2.5813E-14  5.1029E-13  9.1486E-15  1.5760E-17  3.1025E-13  1.2799E-11
  9.6524E-15  9.1486E-15  1.2639E-13 -9.7975E-14  1.3921E-14  3.0410E-13
 -3.9304E-16  1.5760E-17 -9.7975E-14  1.4976E-13 -3.5651E-16  1.8242E-15
  2.6123E-13  3.1025E-13  1.3921E-14 -3.5651E-16  4.1069E-13  1.0523E-11
  3.8651E-12  1.2799E-11  3.0410E-13  1.8242E-15  1.0523E-11  4.5602E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.908264   50.513386    1.015287    0.001901    0.034985  2457246.085349
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457240.5000  =  2015/08/06
Mean Anomaly:           81.01390 +/-     0.114
Argument of Peri:      186.59475 +/-     0.067
Long of Asc Node:      120.42384 +/-     0.016
Inclination:             3.07050 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.18273863 +/-    0.0008
Semi-Major Axis:     39.40969724 +/-    0.0128
Time of Perihelion: 2436904.7528 +/-      26.8
Perihelion:          32.20802304 +/-    0.0333
Aphelion:            46.61137143 +/-    0.0351
Period (y)              247.4075 +/-      0.12
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           25.92116116 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y           29.86800253 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Z           -2.01032341 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00169703 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00213464 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00002051 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   39.59855517 +/-    0.0007
Geocenter to KBO     39.62319964 +/-    0.0010
# Hcoef:  9.27

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VS165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VS165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 08  11.58456  03 15 29.947  +15 04 22.49  25.4w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 10  07.45992  03 14 01.266  +14 54 54.08  25.0w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 10  08.46335  03 13 57.233  +14 54 35.65  25.4w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 10  08.52236  03 13 56.982  +14 54 34.59  25.0w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  07.36952  03 11 35.528  +14 44 29.16  24.9r 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  07.41164  03 11 35.303  +14 44 28.10  25.1r 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  07.45387  03 11 35.085  +14 44 27.39  24.5r 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  10.54061  03 11 19.014  +14 43 22.98  25.6w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  17.38710  03 10 43.348  +14 41 02.22  25.4w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  17.43381  03 10 43.093  +14 41 01.43  25.1w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 12  13.33048  03 08 37.340  +14 33 19.22  25.2w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 12  13.38903  03 08 37.081  +14 33 18.30  25.1w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 01  01.38342  03 07 27.593  +14 29 41.06  25.3w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 01  02.34977  03 07 24.806  +14 29 33.42  25.2w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 01  07.33018  03 07 11.725  +14 29 01.33  25.3w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 02  05.27611  03 06 43.343  +14 29 23.49  25.9w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 09  06.59818  03 21 04.047  +15 25 41.72        15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 11  02.54892  03 17 40.048  +15 10 10.43  25.4w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 11  04.42405  03 17 30.457  +15 09 32.26  25.2w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 12  24.31885  03 13 32.447  +14 55 21.21  26.1w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2017 01  26.30729  03 12 20.029  +14 52 56.10  25.7w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2017 09  21.62152  03 26 12.002  +15 45 47.32  25.3w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      
2017 12  16.35462  03 19 44.598  +15 20 47.74  25.6w 15VS165   568  C~2lVc      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.02
  2   0.1557  -1389.15     0.26    -210.81    -0.14
  3   0.1585  -1450.40    -0.06    -213.18    -0.03
  4   0.1586  -1454.19    -0.16    -213.24     0.03
  5   0.2403  -3592.81     0.03    -253.66     0.01
  6   0.2405  -3596.24    -0.06    -253.81    -0.15
  7   0.2406  -3599.48     0.06    -253.65    -0.00
  8   0.2490  -3841.43    -0.04    -253.65     0.10
  9   0.2678  -4377.91    -0.01    -251.25    -0.04
 10   0.2679  -4381.69    -0.08    -251.02     0.14
 11   0.3388  -6265.27     0.14    -206.70     0.06
 12   0.3390  -6269.14     0.10    -206.58     0.01
 13   0.3910  -7300.45    -0.02    -143.33    -0.04
 14   0.3936  -7341.53    -0.05    -139.73    -0.22
 15   0.4072  -7533.35     0.09    -119.17     0.13
 16   0.4865  -7924.64    -0.18      14.01     0.07
 17   1.0733   5002.32    -0.10     -16.10     0.08
 18   1.2292   1909.55     0.08    -155.38    -0.05
 19   1.2343   1765.53     0.08    -156.18    -0.02
 20   1.3709  -1784.93    -0.07     -74.43     0.08
 21   1.4613  -2835.76    -0.09      63.56     0.05
 22   2.1137   9617.80    -0.10      25.21     0.05
 23   2.3484   3815.80     0.15      -5.48    -0.12

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VS165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.814    39.853    39.776
ecceobj         0.187     0.189     0.185
incobj          3.072     3.071     3.071
qmin           31.486    31.442    31.533
qmax           47.860    47.733    47.766
amean          39.456    39.456    39.456
amin           39.083    39.050    39.124
amax           39.884    39.905    39.857
emean           0.185     0.187     0.184
emin            0.170     0.171     0.171
emax            0.201     0.200     0.199
imean           1.754     1.753     1.750
imin            1.436     1.424     1.443
imax            2.258     2.283     2.233
excite_mean     0.188     0.189     0.187
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.012     3.011     3.012

libcent 0       179.9     179.9     179.9
libamp  0        42.3      63.2      21.4
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       182.1     173.7     182.6
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0