Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VP165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VP165   
# Created Thu Feb 21 02:10:24 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   37 observations of   37
# Arc:   3.08y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000568   0.032751   0.000172  -0.008863   0.030567   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    10.25 DOF:   68 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.26    0.24
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.686015E-05  3.189017E-02 -4.447999E-06 -8.620468E-03  3.026352E-02 -1.084530E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  2.5411E-13 -3.0258E-13 -3.2695E-14  6.3948E-14 -1.0959E-13 -2.4238E-12
 -3.0258E-13  5.1207E-13  6.6321E-14 -1.2949E-13  1.9313E-13  4.9113E-12
 -3.2695E-14  6.6321E-14  1.4955E-13 -9.5505E-14  2.5608E-14  7.2177E-13
  6.3948E-14 -1.2949E-13 -9.5505E-14  9.5173E-14 -5.0882E-14 -1.4077E-12
 -1.0959E-13  1.9313E-13  2.5608E-14 -5.0882E-14  1.8694E-13  1.9165E-12
 -2.4238E-12  4.9113E-12  7.2177E-13 -1.4077E-12  1.9165E-12  5.3417E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -0.819337   48.130585   -0.109175   -0.013916   -0.983336  2456978.782278
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          311.91719 +/-     0.014
Argument of Peri:      268.13023 +/-     0.008
Long of Asc Node:      225.37286 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            15.12118 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.33781637 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     39.52219752 +/-    0.0069
Time of Perihelion: 2469091.7491 +/-       1.8
Perihelion:          26.17095235 +/-    0.0101
Aphelion:            52.87344270 +/-    0.0129
Period (y)              248.4676 +/-      0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           22.62386938 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           25.41026493 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z           -0.47266546 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00281487 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00118174 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00076566 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   34.02564389 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     33.04308796 +/-    0.0005
# Hcoef:  9.41

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VP165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VP165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.28150  03 03 37.681  +16 26 34.93  24.3r 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2014 11  17.39021  03 03 37.031  +16 26 31.75  24.5r 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2014 11  17.50402  03 03 36.360  +16 26 28.36  24.7r 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2014 11  19.29385  03 03 25.824  +16 25 36.03  24.8r 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2014 11  23.39737  03 03 01.914  +16 23 37.42  24.5r 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 09  07.63311  03 16 56.963  +16 56 13.41  25.3w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 09  12.49674  03 16 48.141  +16 55 05.06  25.0w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 10  07.43992  03 15 24.550  +16 46 50.08  25.1w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 10  07.44703  03 15 24.494  +16 46 50.08  25.1w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 10  08.45165  03 15 19.942  +16 46 25.54  24.5w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 10  08.51072  03 15 19.678  +16 46 24.23  24.6w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  07.35903  03 12 37.447  +16 32 48.64  24.8r 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  07.40112  03 12 37.190  +16 32 47.40  24.4r 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  07.44330  03 12 36.938  +16 32 46.18  24.4r 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  17.37547  03 11 37.161  +16 27 57.66  25.0w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  17.42215  03 11 36.871  +16 27 56.37  24.8w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 12  06.38432  03 09 47.523  +16 19 14.02  24.6w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 12  13.31874  03 09 11.576  +16 16 22.27  24.3w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 12  13.37723  03 09 11.285  +16 16 20.88  24.4w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 01  01.37186  03 07 51.735  +16 09 54.85  24.6w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 01  07.31862  03 07 33.845  +16 08 24.68  24.7w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 02  04.29505  03 07 04.305  +16 05 12.90  25.1w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 02  04.30157  03 07 04.310  +16 05 13.11  25.1w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 02  10.28486  03 07 10.422  +16 05 24.14  24.6w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 09  07.56206  03 24 59.483  +16 55 43.63        15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 09  26.62090  03 24 12.585  +16 50 19.16  24.7w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 10  10.43747  03 23 15.954  +16 45 05.97  24.6w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 10  10.49616  03 23 15.678  +16 45 04.53  24.8w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 10  10.51394  03 23 15.586  +16 45 04.11  25.1w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 11  02.51995  03 21 11.305  +16 34 46.62  24.7w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 11  04.39506  03 21 00.142  +16 33 53.34  24.4w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 12  24.33186  03 16 20.991  +16 12 32.02  24.5w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2017 01  26.32220  03 14 57.740  +16 05 59.26  25.0w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2017 01  26.34976  03 14 57.718  +16 05 59.11  25.1w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2017 12  13.39528  03 25 28.938  +16 15 37.33  24.3w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2017 12  13.43255  03 25 28.740  +16 15 36.60  24.6w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      
2017 12  16.37785  03 25 13.396  +16 14 31.31  24.5w 15VP165   568  C~2lVb      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.01
  2   0.0003     -9.87    -0.01      -0.47    -0.03
  3   0.0006    -20.08     0.15      -1.05    -0.12
  4   0.0055   -180.23    -0.12      -9.36    -0.04
  5   0.0167   -543.67    -0.01     -27.92     0.04
  6   0.8059  11551.57    -0.03   -1375.60    -0.14
  7   0.8192  11411.09    -0.09   -1408.59     0.08
  8   0.8875  10119.81     0.16   -1572.14    -0.02
  9   0.8875  10119.03    -0.12   -1571.93     0.23
 10   0.8903  10049.34    -0.21   -1578.43    -0.01
 11   0.8904  10045.33    -0.01   -1578.70     0.06
 12   0.9721   7576.76     0.19   -1748.54     0.13
 13   0.9723   7572.86     0.17   -1748.76     0.11
 14   0.9724   7569.04     0.24   -1748.97     0.10
 15   0.9996   6662.42     0.01   -1797.65    -0.05
 16   0.9997   6658.05    -0.03   -1797.78     0.02
 17   1.0516   5000.66    -0.14   -1878.43     0.01
 18   1.0706   4455.67     0.01   -1904.09     0.02
 19   1.0708   4451.26     0.09   -1904.29    -0.00
 20   1.1228   3243.28    -0.04   -1965.24    -0.07
 21   1.1390   2970.64    -0.00   -1981.89    -0.08
 22   1.2156   2508.71    -0.18   -2050.41    -0.26
 23   1.2157   2508.83    -0.11   -2050.22    -0.07
 24   1.2320   2596.61     0.06   -2063.64     0.05
 25   1.8077  18274.16     0.04   -3183.70     0.02
 26   1.8599  17535.53    -0.04   -3328.53    -0.08
 27   1.8978  16663.56    -0.04   -3425.92     0.02
 28   1.8979  16659.33     0.03   -3426.30    -0.00
 29   1.8980  16657.94    -0.06   -3426.38     0.04
 30   1.9610  14762.56     0.04   -3568.23     0.05
 31   1.9661  14592.91    -0.02   -3578.59     0.00
 32   2.1028  10364.85     0.05   -3774.23     0.11
 33   2.1931   9101.35     0.07   -3837.74     0.03
 34   2.1932   9101.01     0.02   -3837.80     0.01
 35   3.0722  18080.95    -0.09   -5629.65    -0.12
 36   3.0723  18077.98    -0.01   -5629.64    -0.01
 37   3.0803  17845.88     0.06   -5637.12    -0.00

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VP165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.713    39.728    39.697
ecceobj         0.335     0.335     0.334
incobj         15.071    15.071    15.071
qmin           25.770    25.778    25.794
qmax           53.671    53.677    53.661
amean          39.454    39.454    39.454
amin           39.104    39.105    39.109
amax           39.919    39.912    39.911
emean           0.309     0.310     0.309
emin            0.280     0.279     0.279
emax            0.346     0.345     0.345
imean          17.586    17.587    17.595
imin           15.752    15.767    15.766
imax           19.158    19.131    19.106
excite_mean     0.433     0.433     0.433
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.838     2.837     2.838

libcent 0       180.2     180.0     180.2
libamp  0        21.8      18.0      25.3
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       183.5     183.3     183.4
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0