Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VD165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VD165   
# Created Thu Feb 21 02:10:24 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   37 observations of   37
# Arc:   2.27y
# First observation: 2015/09/07
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000056   0.024678  -0.000016   0.005246   0.025685   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     5.75 DOF:   68 RMS:  0.07
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.18    0.18
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.540388E-05  2.432676E-02  3.508320E-06  5.147805E-03  2.547000E-02 -5.103739E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.7312E-13 -2.1491E-14 -4.6094E-15  1.7078E-14  1.1621E-13  1.6393E-12
 -2.1491E-14  2.3809E-13 -1.5726E-14  5.8665E-14  1.4965E-13  5.5940E-12
 -4.6094E-15 -1.5726E-14  1.0106E-13 -7.8796E-14 -1.4739E-14 -5.8523E-13
  1.7078E-14  5.8665E-14 -7.8796E-14  1.0984E-13  5.4849E-14  2.1837E-12
  1.1621E-13  1.4965E-13 -1.4739E-14  5.4849E-14  2.2437E-13  5.2427E-12
  1.6393E-12  5.5940E-12 -5.8523E-13  2.1837E-12  5.2427E-12  2.0818E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -0.002489   51.938122    0.933278    0.000132   -0.388868  2457273.129809
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457270.5000  =  2015/09/05
Mean Anomaly:          282.16948 +/-     0.070
Argument of Peri:      103.78041 +/-     0.031
Long of Asc Node:       50.60464 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            12.02167 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.22584893 +/-    0.0005
Semi-Major Axis:     39.54062865 +/-    0.0103
Time of Perihelion: 2476904.6102 +/-      15.9
Perihelion:          30.61041999 +/-    0.0229
Aphelion:            48.47083732 +/-    0.0249
Period (y)              248.6415 +/-      0.10
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           25.17592313 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           30.64318898 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z           -0.00156044 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00239896 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00117380 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00055343 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   39.65894778 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     39.26187179 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  8.62

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VD165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VD165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 09  07.62902  03 18 05.168  +18 14 56.60  24.5w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 09  12.49264  03 17 56.580  +18 14 38.59  24.9w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  07.53854  03 16 39.191  +18 10 58.99  24.7w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  07.59790  03 16 38.947  +18 10 58.26  24.5w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  09.57780  03 16 30.762  +18 10 32.88  24.6w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  07.33264  03 14 09.879  +18 02 56.33  24.5r 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  07.37479  03 14 09.651  +18 02 55.62  24.3r 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  07.41697  03 14 09.421  +18 02 55.07  24.4r 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  10.49950  03 13 52.848  +18 01 59.90  24.4w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  17.34635  03 13 15.965  +17 59 56.74  24.4w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  17.39294  03 13 15.715  +17 59 55.94  24.7w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 12  06.35508  03 11 37.439  +17 54 27.28  24.7w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 12  06.49265  03 11 36.755  +17 54 25.22  24.4w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 01  01.34294  03 09 51.242  +17 48 43.23  24.9w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 01  08.25043  03 09 31.770  +17 47 45.56  24.8w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 02  05.28189  03 09 01.005  +17 47 02.72  24.8w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 02  10.30227  03 09 04.217  +17 47 29.39  24.5w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 09  07.57363  03 23 27.666  +18 53 30.30  25.1w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 09  27.51061  03 22 39.379  +18 51 41.28  24.6w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 09  29.48481  03 22 32.694  +18 51 23.10  24.9w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  05.48792  03 22 10.471  +18 50 21.36  24.4w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  07.49247  03 22 02.455  +18 49 58.64  24.6w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  07.58817  03 22 02.046  +18 49 57.55  24.6w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  09.49252  03 21 54.180  +18 49 34.74  24.9w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  09.56525  03 21 53.869  +18 49 33.81  24.5w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 11  02.53154  03 19 57.800  +18 43 39.28  24.7w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 11  04.40663  03 19 47.808  +18 43 07.73  24.7w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 12  24.30698  03 15 37.876  +18 29 42.04  24.6w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 12  24.32550  03 15 37.806  +18 29 41.88  24.9w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 01  02.40920  03 15 06.064  +18 28 03.03  24.9w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 01  02.42780  03 15 06.012  +18 28 02.90  25.0w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 01  26.29981  03 14 19.045  +18 25 59.88  24.6w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 01  27.27995  03 14 18.358  +18 25 59.61  24.9w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 09  15.56413  03 28 43.550  +19 31 36.41  24.8w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 09  20.61305  03 28 31.628  +19 31 13.59  24.7w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 12  16.36391  03 21 40.748  +19 11 06.65  24.5w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 12  16.37320  03 21 40.703  +19 11 06.53  24.4w 15VD165   568  C~2lVZ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.06
  2   0.0133   -122.84    -0.00      14.20     0.01
  3   0.0819  -1244.76    -0.06      87.99     0.03
  4   0.0821  -1248.31    -0.01      88.19     0.04
  5   0.0875  -1367.55     0.03      94.04     0.01
  6   0.1662  -3425.84     0.06     179.33    -0.11
  7   0.1663  -3429.17     0.08     179.50    -0.08
  8   0.1664  -3432.48     0.13     179.84     0.11
  9   0.1749  -3675.10    -0.08     188.92     0.01
 10   0.1936  -4215.27    -0.04     209.11    -0.03
 11   0.1937  -4218.92     0.03     209.28    -0.01
 12   0.2457  -5659.04    -0.06     264.94    -0.01
 13   0.2460  -5669.00    -0.04     265.56     0.18
 14   0.3168  -7213.51    -0.06     339.57     0.03
 15   0.3357  -7497.22    -0.04     358.90    -0.06
 16   0.4125  -7932.51    -0.05     436.23     0.08
 17   0.4262  -7881.06     0.15     449.53    -0.17
 18   1.0019   5024.59    -0.01    1070.01     0.03
 19   1.0565   4333.49    -0.00    1136.87     0.05
 20   1.0619   4237.04    -0.02    1143.20    -0.18
 21   1.0783   3916.07     0.00    1163.10    -0.16
 22   1.0838   3800.18     0.04    1169.88     0.03
 23   1.0841   3794.29    -0.10    1170.30     0.10
 24   1.0893   3680.43     0.02    1176.48     0.06
 25   1.0895   3675.93     0.03    1176.70     0.02
 26   1.1551   1991.24     0.06    1253.14    -0.04
 27   1.1602   1845.93     0.04    1258.95     0.01
 28   1.2969  -1794.73    -0.06    1399.92     0.01
 29   1.2969  -1795.74    -0.00    1400.03     0.06
 30   1.3218  -2257.49    -0.00    1422.88     0.02
 31   1.3218  -2258.24     0.11    1422.95     0.05
 32   1.3872  -2935.51    -0.04    1479.85    -0.01
 33   1.3899  -2945.01    -0.04    1482.16     0.04
 34   2.0231   9932.44     0.07    2179.84     0.07
 35   2.0369   9763.02    -0.06    2198.78    -0.18
 36   2.2744   3823.46    -0.00    2474.85     0.01
 37   2.2745   3822.81    -0.02    2474.90     0.03

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VD165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.822    39.846    39.798
ecceobj         0.220     0.222     0.219
incobj         11.971    11.971    11.971
qmin           28.695    28.878    28.597
qmax           50.857    50.777    51.047
amean          39.455    39.456    39.455
amin           38.980    38.963    38.994
amax           39.993    40.020    39.998
emean           0.236     0.234     0.238
emin            0.194     0.200     0.193
emax            0.273     0.269     0.277
imean           9.535     9.858     9.175
imin            7.165     7.857     6.514
imax           11.841    11.796    11.744
excite_mean     0.290     0.291     0.288
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.956     2.955     2.957

libcent 0       180.5     179.3     180.0
libamp  0        93.6     100.4      86.8
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        84.8      85.5      84.4
kozaiamp         60.5      50.7      69.3