Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15RY245

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15RY245   
# Created Sat Dec 16 02:38:11 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   27 observations of   27
# Arc:   1.47y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
#  Last observation: 2017/01/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000153   0.040975   0.000029   0.003684   0.029432   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     7.71 DOF:   48 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.36    0.20
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.197093E-05  4.073058E-02  1.745859E-06  3.707146E-03  2.939824E-02  1.320074E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  2.7066E-13  4.8184E-13 -2.6489E-14  1.0487E-13  4.5600E-13  1.7247E-11
  4.8184E-13  3.2475E-12 -1.3625E-13  5.9780E-13  2.1032E-12  9.8210E-11
 -2.6489E-14 -1.3625E-13  1.2378E-13 -1.3580E-13 -9.3835E-14 -4.3625E-12
  1.0487E-13  5.9780E-13 -1.3580E-13  3.0542E-13  3.9710E-13  1.9641E-11
  4.5600E-13  2.1032E-12 -9.3835E-14  3.9710E-13  1.5090E-12  6.5260E-11
  1.7247E-11  9.8210E-11 -4.3625E-12  1.9641E-11  6.5260E-11  3.2259E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    2.994263   12.728256    1.004900    0.008463   -0.159863  2457218.059109
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457210.5000  =  2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly:            1.46512 +/-     0.020
Argument of Peri:      354.44740 +/-     0.124
Long of Asc Node:      341.58225 +/-     0.003
Inclination:             6.04078 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.85783880 +/-    0.0014
Semi-Major Axis:    220.23012101 +/-    2.0164
Time of Perihelion: 2452352.2104 +/-      12.2
Perihelion:          31.30817852 +/-    0.4222
Aphelion:           409.15206349 +/-    3.7589
Period (y)             3268.3103 +/-     44.89
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           33.50837335 +/-    0.0014
Ecliptic Y            6.53985167 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z            1.77695139 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00034191 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00396025 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00040905 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   34.18681472 +/-    0.0014
Geocenter to KBO     34.01564020 +/-    0.0014
# Hcoef:  9.01

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RY245. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RY245) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 07  14.55832  00 42 07.565  +07 47 04.10  24.4r 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 07  19.53712  00 42 07.409  +07 47 42.89  24.6r 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 08  13.50040  00 41 28.901  +07 46 48.93  24.9r 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 08  20.43842  00 41 07.954  +07 45 23.78  24.5r 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 08  20.48764  00 41 07.792  +07 45 23.09  24.8r 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 09  07.58494  00 39 56.463  +07 39 37.93  24.1w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 09  09.41265  00 39 48.190  +07 38 54.48  24.1r 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 09  09.45371  00 39 47.993  +07 38 53.48  24.8r 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 09  09.49464  00 39 47.799  +07 38 52.51  24.7r 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 09  10.51893  00 39 43.065  +07 38 27.51  24.1w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 09  18.48318  00 39 04.809  +07 35 00.49  23.4w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 10  08.37093  00 37 22.949  +07 25 12.78  23.9w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 10  08.42353  00 37 22.676  +07 25 10.93  24.0w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 10  09.34051  00 37 17.955  +07 24 42.69  23.9w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2015 12  08.26533  00 33 38.815  +07 00 18.36  24.2w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 01  01.32759  00 33 41.933  +06 59 08.96  24.8w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 01  02.27875  00 33 43.379  +06 59 15.06  24.4w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 09  05.57903  00 48 27.011  +08 46 56.71        15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 09  06.52814  00 48 22.925  +08 46 36.36        15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 09  06.57023  00 48 22.742  +08 46 35.47        15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 09  27.48394  00 46 42.643  +08 37 37.76  24.9w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 10  27.29136  00 44 12.650  +08 22 37.90        15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 10  27.35723  00 44 12.355  +08 22 35.77        15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 11  04.30636  00 43 36.882  +08 18 46.84        15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 11  04.36545  00 43 36.631  +08 18 45.18        15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2016 12  29.29848  00 41 52.958  +08 04 58.39  24.7w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      
2017 01  02.33380  00 41 57.692  +08 05 10.59  24.5w 15RY245   568  C~2Gu0      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.05
  2   0.0136     13.06    -0.13      36.60    -0.04
  3   0.0820   -534.63     0.06     211.17     0.03
  4   0.1010   -854.41    -0.02     254.89     0.10
  5   0.1011   -856.90     0.05     255.20     0.08
  6   0.1507  -1967.61    -0.02     353.87     0.05
  7   0.1557  -2097.80     0.11     362.23    -0.05
  8   0.1558  -2100.88     0.04     362.46    -0.04
  9   0.1559  -2103.92     0.02     362.70    -0.01
 10   0.1587  -2178.47    -0.05     367.36    -0.02
 11   0.1805  -2782.93     0.08     400.59     0.13
 12   0.2349  -4407.30    -0.05     456.75     0.08
 13   0.2351  -4411.76    -0.08     456.65    -0.16
 14   0.2376  -4487.47     0.03     458.38    -0.03
 15   0.4017  -8065.21     0.01     401.70    -0.06
 16   0.4675  -8050.04    -0.06     319.52    -0.36
 17   0.4701  -8027.82     0.03     316.60     0.13
 18   1.1472   6589.45    -0.09    1113.24    -0.02
 19   1.1498   6525.66     0.00    1117.99     0.08
 20   1.1499   6522.81     0.07    1118.22     0.09
 21   1.2072   4945.05    -0.01    1199.25    -0.03
 22   1.2888   2544.27    -0.12    1237.59     0.20
 23   1.2890   2539.40     0.06    1237.34    -0.08
 24   1.3107   1965.26    -0.01    1232.21    -0.01
 25   1.3109   1961.19     0.06    1232.14    -0.05
 26   1.4613    221.11    -0.06    1073.46     0.17
 27   1.4723    290.57     0.08    1057.15    -0.24

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15RY245    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURS  CENTAURS  CENTAURS

axisobj       237.045   245.830   228.943
ecceobj         0.868     0.873     0.863
incobj          6.025     6.025     6.024
qmin           28.640    28.843    29.228
qmax          642.182   689.989   514.230
amean         273.071   245.824   206.154
amin          202.271   197.498   164.390
amax          336.700   360.666   272.830
emean           0.885     0.872     0.848
emin            0.842     0.840     0.809
emax            0.908     0.913     0.886
imean           5.477     5.385     5.714
imin            4.202     3.873     4.112
imax            7.498     7.341     7.329
excite_mean     0.890     0.877     0.854
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.893     2.893     2.899

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       101.7     132.2     147.3
kozaiamp        180.0     179.8     180.0