Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15RW245

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15RW245   
# Created Fri Dec 15 02:38:08 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   23 observations of   23
# Arc:   1.32y
# First observation: 2015/09/07
#  Last observation: 2017/01/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000100   0.056968   0.000007   0.013141   0.038674   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     1.96 DOF:   40 RMS:  0.05
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.14    0.08
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.311334E-05  5.719858E-02  5.498396E-06  1.321046E-02  3.894266E-02 -1.899034E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.5221E-13  6.2812E-13 -1.8657E-14  2.4675E-13  4.7206E-13  1.5473E-11
  6.2812E-13  7.0330E-12 -1.7637E-13  2.2974E-12  3.5926E-12  1.4454E-10
 -1.8657E-14 -1.7637E-13  1.4064E-13 -1.9064E-13 -9.0912E-14 -3.7738E-12
  2.4675E-13  2.2974E-12 -1.9064E-13  1.0181E-12  1.1926E-12  4.9079E-11
  4.7206E-13  3.5926E-12 -9.0912E-14  1.1926E-12  2.0592E-12  7.4915E-11
  1.5473E-11  1.4454E-10 -3.7738E-12  4.9079E-11  7.4915E-11  3.0888E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    2.664543   12.373213    0.472456    0.041701   -0.892923  2457273.085729
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457270.5000  =  2015/09/05
Mean Anomaly:          357.78576 +/-     0.041
Argument of Peri:       19.66251 +/-     0.156
Long of Asc Node:        0.40875 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            13.32529 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.52882798 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     56.18587704 +/-    0.0166
Time of Perihelion: 2458216.6544 +/-      17.3
Perihelion:          26.47321306 +/-    0.0130
Aphelion:            85.89854102 +/-    0.0274
Period (y)              421.1618 +/-      0.19
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           26.02587479 +/-    0.0009
Ecliptic Y            5.22647296 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z            1.19391408 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00103599 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00388367 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00092160 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   26.57230907 +/-    0.0009
Geocenter to KBO     25.67878318 +/-    0.0009
# Hcoef:  8.53

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RW245. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RW245) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 09  07.58494  00 41 19.838  +07 20 31.93  22.1w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.41265  00 41 09.091  +07 19 44.27  22.9r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.45371  00 41 08.847  +07 19 43.19  22.9r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.49464  00 41 08.599  +07 19 42.07  23.1r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  10.51893  00 41 02.458  +07 19 14.52  22.3w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  18.48318  00 40 12.742  +07 15 23.35  22.6w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  08.37093  00 37 59.937  +07 04 17.19  22.4w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  08.42353  00 37 59.574  +07 04 15.33  23.1w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  09.34050  00 37 53.403  +07 03 42.88  23.0w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 11  10.46704  00 34 39.393  +06 46 05.79  22.9w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 12  08.26533  00 33 06.815  +06 37 20.74  22.7w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 01  01.32759  00 33 10.444  +06 38 05.75  23.4w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 01  02.27875  00 33 12.313  +06 38 18.40  22.9w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  05.57903  00 52 28.055  +09 19 21.82        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  06.52814  00 52 22.743  +09 19 00.63        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  06.57023  00 52 22.499  +09 18 59.72        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  27.48394  00 50 11.393  +09 09 13.83  23.0w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 10  27.29136  00 46 52.499  +08 52 01.99        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 10  27.35723  00 46 52.083  +08 51 59.63        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 11  04.30636  00 46 04.740  +08 47 35.34        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 11  04.36545  00 46 04.399  +08 47 33.49        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 12  29.29848  00 43 43.257  +08 33 12.81        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2017 01  02.33380  00 43 49.128  +08 33 44.71        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.03
  2   0.0050   -165.78    -0.02      18.79     0.08
  3   0.0051   -169.54     0.06      19.22     0.06
  4   0.0052   -173.37     0.06      19.64     0.02
  5   0.0080   -268.22     0.01      30.09     0.05
  6   0.0298  -1039.35    -0.02     107.49     0.03
  7   0.0843  -3118.90    -0.04     271.44    -0.02
  8   0.0844  -3124.60    -0.06     271.85    -0.02
  9   0.0869  -3221.84    -0.11     278.17    -0.14
 10   0.1749  -6295.27     0.02     445.84     0.04
 11   0.2510  -7771.41     0.07     509.01    -0.09
 12   0.3169  -7703.85    -0.03     528.95    -0.04
 13   0.3195  -7673.23     0.06     529.55     0.04
 14   0.9966  11922.23     0.04    2718.50    -0.02
 15   0.9992  11841.23     0.03    2729.23    -0.03
 16   0.9993  11837.54     0.03    2729.78     0.01
 17   1.0565   9815.03    -0.03    2938.12     0.01
 18   1.1381   6693.52    -0.07    3128.42     0.04
 19   1.1383   6686.91    -0.09    3128.64    -0.07
 20   1.1601   5936.86    -0.01    3157.86     0.04
 21   1.1602   5931.48     0.03    3158.12     0.07
 22   1.3106   3667.10     0.04    3180.83    -0.05
 23   1.3217   3759.77     0.03    3176.21     0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15RW245    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        57.165    57.311    57.023
ecceobj         0.537     0.538     0.536
incobj         13.281    13.281    13.280
qmin           26.339    26.086    26.147
qmax          102.016    90.054    87.998
amean          59.920    57.047    54.772
amin           56.845    55.953    52.009
amax           64.847    58.330    57.236
emean           0.546     0.531     0.508
emin            0.529     0.519     0.480
emax            0.575     0.544     0.537
imean          14.593    14.376    15.202
imin           13.748    13.784    13.791
imax           15.127    14.880    16.199
excite_mean     0.601     0.586     0.572
fracstop        0.038     0.027     0.032
cjmean          2.783     2.781     2.785

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        29.9      31.7      34.4
kozaiamp         10.7      12.9      15.3