Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15RW245

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15RW245   
# Created Fri Feb 22 02:10:25 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   40 observations of   42
# Arc:   3.17y
# First observation: 2014/09/20
#  Last observation: 2017/11/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000360   0.057732  -0.000141   0.013454   0.040163   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    13.92 DOF:   74 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.28    0.27
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.355958E-05  5.696566E-02  5.593669E-06  1.331827E-02  3.894536E-02 -3.618916E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.9879E-13 -3.5912E-13  4.1289E-14 -7.1142E-14 -1.0266E-13 -1.6499E-12
 -3.5912E-13  6.0631E-13 -7.8856E-14  1.3639E-13  2.6219E-13  3.1548E-12
  4.1289E-14 -7.8856E-14  1.6067E-13 -9.7307E-14 -3.1746E-14 -4.5786E-13
 -7.1142E-14  1.3639E-13 -9.7307E-14  8.7500E-14  5.6266E-14  7.9002E-13
 -1.0266E-13  2.6219E-13 -3.1746E-14  5.6266E-14  2.7838E-13  1.2799E-12
 -1.6499E-12  3.1548E-12 -4.5786E-13  7.9002E-13  1.2799E-12  1.8304E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.937807    8.746380    0.202108    0.033467   -0.985742  2456920.984278
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456920.5000  =  2014/09/20
Mean Anomaly:          356.94420 +/-     0.003
Argument of Peri:       19.82746 +/-     0.012
Long of Asc Node:        0.40525 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            13.32036 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.53073387 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     56.40570953 +/-    0.0064
Time of Perihelion: 2458233.9267 +/-       1.3
Perihelion:          26.46928925 +/-    0.0041
Aphelion:            86.34212982 +/-    0.0102
Period (y)              423.6359 +/-      0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           26.36697284 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y            3.85441393 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z            0.86841362 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00089623 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00391007 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00092725 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   26.66135603 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     25.67700303 +/-    0.0003
# Hcoef:  8.76

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RW245. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RW245) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 09  20.48350  00 29 04.355  +05 14 54.72  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2014 09  20.49507  00 29 04.277  +05 14 54.61  22.7G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2014 09  20.50657  00 29 04.221  +05 14 53.83  23.2G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2014 09  20.51807  00 29 04.127  +05 14 53.77  23.2G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2014 11  19.32091  00 23 15.943  +04 44 01.65  23.6G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 09  05.58200  00 41 31.384  +07 21 22.24  22.7G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 09  07.58494  00 41 19.838  +07 20 31.93  22.1w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.41265  00 41 09.091  +07 19 44.27  22.9r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.45371  00 41 08.847  +07 19 43.19  22.9r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.49464  00 41 08.599  +07 19 42.07  23.1r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  10.51893  00 41 02.458  +07 19 14.52  22.3w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  18.48318  00 40 12.742  +07 15 23.35  22.6w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  08.37093  00 37 59.937  +07 04 17.19  22.4w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  08.42353  00 37 59.574  +07 04 15.33  23.1w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  09.34050  00 37 53.403  +07 03 42.88  23.0w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  12.40518  00 37 32.849  +07 01 54.81  23.6G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 10  13.39807  00 37 26.214  +07 01 19.75  23.4G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 10  23.32398  00 36 21.915  +06 55 33.86  22.8G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  01.31764  00 35 28.024  +06 50 38.14  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  02.31807  00 35 22.386  +06 50 06.07  22.3G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  02.32980  00 35 22.298  +06 50 06.06  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  02.34169  00 35 22.230  +06 50 05.65  23.6G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  02.35354  00 35 22.162  +06 50 05.12  22.8G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  10.46704  00 34 39.393  +06 46 05.79  22.9w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 12  08.26533  00 33 06.815  +06 37 20.74  22.7w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 01  01.32759  00 33 10.444  +06 38 05.75  23.4w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 01  02.27875  00 33 12.313  +06 38 18.40  22.9w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  05.57903  00 52 28.055  +09 19 21.82        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  06.52814  00 52 22.743  +09 19 00.63        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  06.57023  00 52 22.499  +09 18 59.72        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  12.55386  00 51 47.462  +09 16 33.97  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2016 09  27.48394  00 50 11.393  +09 09 13.83  23.0w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 10  27.29136  00 46 52.499  +08 52 01.99        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 10  27.35723  00 46 52.083  +08 51 59.63        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 11  04.30636  00 46 04.740  +08 47 35.34        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 11  04.36545  00 46 04.399  +08 47 33.49        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 12  29.29848  00 43 43.257  +08 33 12.81        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2017 01  02.33380  00 43 49.128  +08 33 44.71        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2017 10  22.45304  00 58 35.120  +10 53 25.25  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2017 10  22.46468  00 58 35.056  +10 53 25.00  22.6G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2017 10  22.47631  00 58 34.993  +10 53 24.34  22.5G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2017 11  22.22934  00 55 40.640  +10 36 51.02  23.0G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.04
  2   0.0000     -1.11     0.01       0.36     0.21
  3   0.0001     -2.19     0.14      -0.03    -0.28
  4   0.0001     -3.50     0.04       0.47     0.12
  5   0.1638  -5515.93 (  -0.08)    359.24 (   0.52)
  6   0.9585  13239.47     0.27    2615.10    -0.05
  7   0.9640  13060.94     0.01    2635.61    -0.03
  8   0.9690  12894.45    -0.04    2653.96     0.08
  9   0.9691  12890.67     0.04    2654.38     0.06
 10   0.9692  12886.83     0.04    2654.78     0.02
 11   0.9720  12791.58    -0.01    2664.98     0.05
 12   0.9938  12017.43    -0.05    2740.23     0.03
 13   1.0483   9931.65    -0.09    2898.18    -0.01
 14   1.0484   9925.94    -0.11    2898.58    -0.01
 15   1.0509   9828.47    -0.16    2904.61    -0.13
 16   1.0593   9503.86     0.15    2924.73    -0.11
 17   1.0621   9399.01    -0.07    2931.08    -0.03
 18   1.0892   8380.68     0.16    2987.31    -0.14
 19   1.1139   7525.10 (   0.10)   3029.56 (   0.48)
 20   1.1166   7435.16     0.04    3032.97    -0.22
 21   1.1166   7433.95    -0.10    3033.47     0.23
 22   1.1167   7432.85    -0.11    3033.49     0.19
 23   1.1167   7431.71    -0.17    3033.40     0.04
 24   1.1389   6751.00    -0.05    3063.01     0.06
 25   1.2150   5275.00     0.02    3121.63    -0.07
 26   1.2809   5342.47    -0.05    3141.78    -0.02
 27   1.2835   5373.07     0.04    3142.47     0.06
 28   1.9606  25072.06    -0.02    5405.80    -0.02
 29   1.9632  24990.11    -0.04    5416.29    -0.03
 30   1.9633  24986.37    -0.03    5416.83     0.02
 31   1.9797  24443.68     0.11    5480.54     0.02
 32   2.0205  22941.35    -0.07    5618.60     0.00
 33   2.1021  19790.23    -0.05    5797.67     0.03
 34   2.1023  19783.57    -0.07    5797.87    -0.08
 35   2.1241  19027.32     0.02    5824.26     0.02
 36   2.1242  19021.90     0.07    5824.50     0.05
 37   2.2746  16741.07     0.13    5838.38    -0.07
 38   2.2857  16834.35     0.11    5834.11     0.02
 39   3.0882  32383.48    -0.28    8613.51     0.07
 40   3.0882  32382.48    -0.01    8613.63     0.14
 41   3.0883  32381.35     0.12    8613.36    -0.17
 42   3.1725  29562.82     0.13    8660.11    -0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15RW245    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        57.173    57.192    57.153
ecceobj         0.537     0.537     0.537
incobj         13.281    13.281    13.281
qmin           26.154    26.184    26.246
qmax           91.836    89.548    91.124
amean          57.493    56.886    57.394
amin           53.842    54.701    54.745
amax           59.315    58.027    59.114
emean           0.531     0.528     0.531
emin            0.483     0.503     0.506
emax            0.550     0.543     0.546
imean          14.628    14.673    14.790
imin           13.391    13.740    13.758
imax           17.749    16.026    15.689
excite_mean     0.589     0.586     0.589
fracstop        0.265     0.023     0.034
cjmean          2.789     2.781     2.781

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       125.1      27.9      32.0
kozaiamp        100.8       8.2      14.4