Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15PD312

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15PD312   
# Created Fri Oct 20 01:38:38 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   39 observations of   41
# Arc:   2.34y
# First observation: 2014/09/24
#  Last observation: 2017/01/27
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000269   0.035152  -0.000107  -0.008384   0.029297   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    30.84 DOF:   72 RMS:  0.16
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.33    0.34
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.970590E-05  3.575151E-02 -4.999133E-06 -8.555221E-03  2.947772E-02  2.050230E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  5.3596E-13 -1.1035E-12 -1.4235E-13  3.0059E-13 -3.3986E-13 -1.6394E-11
 -1.1035E-12  4.5274E-12  7.3366E-13 -1.5070E-12  9.4807E-13  8.7427E-11
 -1.4235E-13  7.3366E-13  3.3114E-13 -3.6566E-13  1.3105E-13  1.5003E-11
  3.0059E-13 -1.5070E-12 -3.6566E-13  5.9433E-13 -2.7889E-13 -3.0586E-11
 -3.3986E-13  9.4807E-13  1.3105E-13 -2.7889E-13  3.5409E-13  1.4942E-11
 -1.6394E-11  8.7427E-11  1.5003E-11 -3.0586E-11  1.4942E-11  1.8041E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -19.190835   28.343754    0.463943   -0.293156   -0.842741  2456924.779968
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456920.5000  =  2014/09/20
Mean Anomaly:            3.47397 +/-     0.099
Argument of Peri:      226.65337 +/-     0.238
Long of Asc Node:      154.92677 +/-     0.002
Inclination:            23.08175 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.37444887 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     55.42584846 +/-    0.0248
Time of Perihelion: 2455466.0779 +/-      41.4
Perihelion:          34.67170188 +/-    0.0265
Aphelion:            76.17999504 +/-    0.0403
Period (y)              412.6451 +/-      0.28
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           29.20055861 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Y           15.22792134 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z          -11.15151240 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00165272 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00287926 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00081292 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   34.76950446 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     33.92392463 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  8.40

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15PD312. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15PD312) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 09  24.279190 02 12 27.22   -07 04 44.1   23.0i 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2014 12  13.166435 02 06 11.81   -07 36 11.5   23.2r 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2015 08  15.284653 02 22 21.75   -06 19 15.8   23.4i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  15.288449 02 22 21.74   -06 19 15.6   23.2z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  19.330515 02 22 19.78   -06 21 58.8   24.6g 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  19.332720 02 22 19.78   -06 21 59.0   23.6r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  19.335069 02 22 19.76   -06 21 59.2   23.7i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  19.338877 02 22 19.77   -06 21 58.9   23.6z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  31.380799 02 22 03.84   -06 30 34.4   23.6r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  31.383171 02 22 03.84   -06 30 34.7   23.1i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  08.329497 02 21 45.49   -06 36 31.4   23.6g 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  08.331701 02 21 45.49   -06 36 31.4   23.1r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  08.334039 02 21 45.50   -06 36 31.6   22.7i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  08.337847 02 21 45.47   -06 36 31.5   22.8z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  13.299416 02 21 31.06   -06 40 17.0   24.2g 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  13.301644 02 21 31.06   -06 40 17.6   23.6r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  13.304005 02 21 31.06   -06 40 17.5   23.2i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  13.307824 02 21 31.04   -06 40 17.8   22.9z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 10  09.192552 02 19 45.88   -06 59 13.5   25.7g 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 10  09.194780 02 19 45.88   -06 59 13.1   23.8r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 10  09.197141 02 19 45.87   -06 59 13.2   23.3i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 10  09.200926 02 19 45.83   -06 59 13.5   22.7z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2016 12  22.063108 02 22 22.02   -07 03 17.1   23.9g 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  22.065324 02 22 22.01   -07 03 17.1   23.3r 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  22.067697 02 22 22.00   -07 03 17.0   23.1i 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  22.071667 02 22 22.00   -07 03 16.9   22.9z 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  28.055561 02 22 07.68   -07 01 40.9   24.0g 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  28.057766 02 22 07.66   -07 01 40.7   23.2r 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  28.060127 02 22 07.66   -07 01 40.6   23.1i 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  28.064109 02 22 07.66   -07 01 40.6   23.1z 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  03.067674 02 21 56.91   -06 59 35.1   23.2r 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  03.070035 02 21 56.94   -06 59 35.0   23.4i 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  03.076655 02 21 56.89   -06 59 35.0   23.2z 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  10.087766 02 21 49.24   -06 56 34.0   23.3z 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  19.078571 02 21 47.38   -06 51 52.5   23.6g 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  19.080787 02 21 47.38   -06 51 52.4   23.0r 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  19.083137 02 21 47.38   -06 51 52.4   22.9i 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  19.087118 02 21 47.42   -06 51 51.9   23.1z 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  27.052564 02 21 53.35   -06 47 01.5   23.7g 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  27.054769 02 21 53.33   -06 47 01.5   23.3r 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  27.057130 02 21 53.34   -06 47 01.4   23.1i 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.08
  2   0.2187  -5893.68     0.02     194.11     0.06
  3   0.8898   9254.74    -0.15    -595.84    -0.33
  4   0.8898   9254.67    -0.14    -595.60     0.04
  5   0.9009   9168.88    -0.01    -737.71    -0.21
  6   0.9009   9168.81    -0.02    -737.89    -0.32
  7   0.9009   9168.46    -0.31    -737.97    -0.32
  8   0.9009   9168.70     0.03    -737.75     0.04
  9   0.9339   8761.95     0.17   -1134.66     0.19
 10   0.9339   8761.84     0.17   -1134.94    -0.01
 11   0.9556   8378.34    -0.06   -1370.53     0.06
 12   0.9557   8378.34     0.06   -1370.53     0.12
 13   0.9557   8378.41     0.26   -1370.77    -0.05
 14   0.9557   8378.03     0.08   -1370.51     0.31
 15   0.9693   8096.50 (   0.00)  -1504.50 (   0.51)
 16   0.9693   8096.28    -0.08   -1505.06     0.01
 17   0.9693   8096.32     0.10   -1504.97     0.16
 18   0.9693   8095.93    -0.05   -1505.14     0.08
 19   1.0401   6225.33    -0.13   -2007.30    -0.27
 20   1.0402   6225.47     0.20   -2006.92     0.13
 21   1.0402   6225.29     0.22   -2006.96     0.12
 22   1.0402   6224.63    -0.13   -2007.03     0.10
 23   2.2444   8312.61    -0.14   -3066.19    -0.14
 24   2.2445   8312.48    -0.20   -3066.13    -0.14
 25   2.2445   8312.37    -0.22   -3065.99    -0.06
 26   2.2445   8312.41    -0.05   -3065.89    -0.08
 27   2.2609   8147.34     0.05   -2899.78    -0.28
 28   2.2609   8147.14    -0.10   -2899.48    -0.05
 29   2.2609   8147.17    -0.01   -2899.39    -0.03
 30   2.2609   8147.17     0.08   -2899.39    -0.14
 31   2.2773   8042.37    -0.16   -2724.77     0.11
 32   2.2773   8042.82     0.32   -2724.83    -0.03
 33   2.2773   8042.12    -0.29   -2724.57     0.04
 34   2.2965   8000.33    -0.21   -2514.61     0.16
 35   2.3211   8075.14     0.13   -2241.57     0.12
 36   2.3212   8075.17     0.13   -2241.48     0.14
 37   2.3212   8075.17     0.10   -2241.48     0.07
 38   2.3212   8075.91 (   0.77)  -2241.23 (   0.20)
 39   2.3430   8262.44     0.34   -2001.40     0.09
 40   2.3430   8262.16    -0.00   -2001.29     0.13
 41   2.3430   8262.34     0.10   -2001.25     0.10

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15PD312    quality flag:3

Type:         5:2EEE    5:2EEE    5:2EEE
Type:         5:2EII                    

axisobj        56.123    56.245    56.004
ecceobj         0.382     0.384     0.381
incobj         23.030    23.032    23.029
qmin           34.190    34.172    34.225
qmax           77.647    77.850    77.568
amean          55.461    55.461    55.462
amin           54.834    54.767    54.803
amax           56.246    56.338    56.338
emean           0.313     0.292     0.301
emin            0.269     0.219     0.233
emax            0.382     0.384     0.381
imean          25.023    25.748    25.399
imin           21.952    21.953    21.951
imax           26.518    28.024    27.650
excite_mean     0.527     0.526     0.526
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.877     2.877     2.878

libcent 0       179.5     173.3     184.5
libamp  0        87.8     150.5     144.9
libcent 1       206.5    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1       138.1    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       194.6     252.3     259.4
kozaiamp         33.1      49.0      46.1