Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15HP9

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15HP9     
# Created Wed Oct 18 01:38:35 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   56 observations of   59
# Arc:   5.16y
# First observation: 2011/03/06
#  Last observation: 2016/05/04
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.016566   0.180013  -0.000987   0.008727   0.075272   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    86.22 DOF:  106 RMS:  0.22
# Min/Max residuals:    -1.05    0.54
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  3.008681E-05  1.581141E-01  1.209610E-06  7.445790E-03  8.146120E-02 -3.227482E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.5089E-13 -7.6530E-14  1.6623E-15 -2.4893E-15 -4.7461E-15 -5.4840E-14
 -7.6530E-14  8.6895E-14 -2.6922E-15  4.0316E-15  8.1055E-15  8.8764E-14
  1.6623E-15 -2.6922E-15  1.2078E-13 -2.7707E-14  2.1707E-16 -3.1446E-15
 -2.4893E-15  4.0316E-15 -2.7707E-14  7.7534E-15 -3.2068E-16  4.7079E-15
 -4.7461E-15  8.1055E-15  2.1707E-16 -3.2068E-16  1.1392E-13 -2.1520E-14
 -5.4840E-14  8.8764E-14 -3.1446E-15  4.7079E-15 -2.1520E-14  1.0757E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.576471  169.487855    0.073293    0.027304   -0.993023  2455626.818986
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455620.5000  =  2011/02/28
Mean Anomaly:          356.04876 +/-     0.000
Argument of Peri:       35.30476 +/-     0.001
Long of Asc Node:      140.84621 +/-     0.001
Inclination:             3.07274 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.26765001 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     18.08478487 +/-    0.0005
Time of Perihelion: 2455928.8183 +/-       0.0
Perihelion:          13.24439205 +/-    0.0004
Aphelion:            22.92517768 +/-    0.0006
Period (y)               76.9092 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -13.02449853 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Y            2.49141578 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z            0.33774642 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00085753 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00523992 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00024719 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   13.26494580 +/-    0.0000
Geocenter to KBO     12.27578305 +/-    0.0001
# Hcoef: 10.44

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15HP9. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15HP9) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2011 03  06.31822  11 23 50.24   +05 36 42.0   21.6V 15HP9     G96  C~1vYY      
2011 03  06.32640  11 23 50.13   +05 36 42.6   21.5V 15HP9     G96  C~1vYY      
2011 03  06.33459  11 23 50.02   +05 36 43.6   21.3V 15HP9     G96  C~1vYY      
2011 03  06.34277  11 23 49.92   +05 36 43.7   21.3V 15HP9     G96  C~1vYY      
2011 04  02.30006  11 18 28.848  +06 12 14.05  21.4w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2011 04  02.31519  11 18 28.685  +06 12 15.23  21.5w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2011 04  02.33138  11 18 28.500  +06 12 16.28  21.6w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2011 04  02.34648  11 18 28.334  +06 12 17.36  21.4w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2012 02  26.42643  11 59 23.534  +02 12 37.25  21.5w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2012 02  26.44083  11 59 23.386  +02 12 38.38  21.3w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2012 02  26.45519  11 59 23.216  +02 12 39.50  21.4w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2012 02  26.54125  11 59 22.266  +02 12 46.36  21.2r 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2012 02  26.55172  11 59 22.159  +02 12 46.87  21.5r 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2014 02  28.49924  13 05 37.157  -04 08 42.74  21.8w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2014 02  28.51051  13 05 37.059  -04 08 42.01  21.8w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2014 02  28.52174  13 05 36.967  -04 08 41.24  21.8w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2014 02  28.53302  13 05 36.870  -04 08 40.59  21.8w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 01  23.60208  13 39 06.561  -07 23 29.33  22.2w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 01  23.61372  13 39 06.593  -07 23 29.46  22.0w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 01  23.62530  13 39 06.630  -07 23 29.48  22.1w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 01  23.63691  13 39 06.671  -07 23 29.58  22.1w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 04  20.38185  13 29 12.819  -06 10 42.99  21.3w 15HP9     F51  C@0617      
2015 04  20.39540  13 29 12.652  -06 10 42.13  21.4w 15HP9     F51  C@0617      
2015 04  20.40889  13 29 12.475  -06 10 40.90  21.3w 15HP9     F51  C@0617      
2015 04  20.96442  13 29 05.76   -06 10 01.3   21.6V 15HP9     033  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  20.97964  13 29 05.62   -06 10 00.2   21.6V 15HP9     033  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  20.98343  13 29 05.55   -06 10 00.3   21.8V 15HP9     033  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  20.99865  13 29 05.41   -06 09 59.2   21.8V 15HP9     033  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.02587  13 29 05.01   -06 09 56.5   21.7V 15HP9     033  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.04340  13 29 04.86   -06 09 55.1   21.5V 15HP9     033  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.04777  13 29 04.69   -06 09 55.9   21.3V 15HP9     033  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.06531  13 29 04.55   -06 09 54.5   22.1V 15HP9     033  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.136402 13 29 03.71   -06 09 48.1   21.6R 15HP9     W86  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.139936 13 29 03.68   -06 09 47.8   21.7R 15HP9     W86  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.143465 13 29 03.62   -06 09 47.6   21.6R 15HP9     W86  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.146989 13 29 03.59   -06 09 47.3   21.6R 15HP9     W86  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.18469  13 29 03.20   -06 09 45.5   21.3R 15HP9     926  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.20422  13 29 02.89   -06 09 44.0   21.4R 15HP9     926  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.22367  13 29 02.68   -06 09 42.4   21.4R 15HP9     926  C~1Qgh      
2015 04  21.40487  13 29 00.461  -06 09 29.73  22.0w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 04  21.41842  13 29 00.321  -06 09 28.61  21.6w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 04  21.43198  13 29 00.143  -06 09 27.77  21.7w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 04  21.44555  13 28 59.980  -06 09 26.81  21.6w 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 05  24.31317  13 23 18.820  -05 37 39.91  21.3i 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 05  24.32451  13 23 18.726  -05 37 39.49  21.0i 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 05  24.33591  13 23 18.632  -05 37 38.95  21.3i 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2015 05  24.34726  13 23 18.539  -05 37 38.74  21.2i 15HP9     F51  C~1vYY      
2016 05  01.12739  13 59 20.91   -08 50 40.0   21.9V 15HP9     W84  C~1sdf      
2016 05  01.13056  13 59 20.88   -08 50 39.7         15HP9     W84  C~1sdf      
2016 05  01.13374  13 59 20.83   -08 50 39.5         15HP9     W84  C~1sdf      
2016 05  01.13693  13 59 20.80   -08 50 39.3         15HP9     W84  C~1sdf      
2016 05  01.14011  13 59 20.76   -08 50 39.1         15HP9     W84  C~1sdf      
2016 05  03.19513  13 58 56.26   -08 48 28.0   22.1V 15HP9     W84  C~1sdf      
2016 05  03.20149  13 58 56.17   -08 48 27.6         15HP9     W84  C~1sdf      
2016 05  03.20782  13 58 56.09   -08 48 27.2         15HP9     W84  C~1sdf      
2016 05  04.13422  13 58 45.15   -08 47 29.0   22.2V 15HP9     W84  C~1sdg      
2016 05  04.13740  13 58 45.12   -08 47 28.7         15HP9     W84  C~1sdg      
2016 05  04.14054  13 58 45.07   -08 47 28.6         15HP9     W84  C~1sdg      
2016 05  04.14690  13 58 45.01   -08 47 28.1         15HP9     W84  C~1sdg      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.05
  2   0.0000     -1.75     0.05      -0.09    -0.07
  3   0.0000     -3.65    -0.17       0.18     0.17
  4   0.0001     -5.06     0.09      -0.31    -0.35
  5   0.0739  -5248.35    -0.00      82.28    -0.07
  6   0.0739  -5251.05     0.02      82.42     0.07
  7   0.0740  -5254.00    -0.02      82.30    -0.04
  8   0.0740  -5256.71    -0.01      82.33    -0.01
  9   0.9777  34471.68    -0.11    1505.79    -0.01
 10   0.9777  34469.13     0.04    1505.93     0.06
 11   0.9778  34466.27    -0.12    1505.93    -0.02
 12   0.9780  34450.03    -0.13    1506.47     0.10
 13   0.9781  34448.31     0.12    1506.29    -0.14
 14   2.9848 105987.15     0.13    4933.99    -0.01
 15   2.9848 105985.09     0.09    4934.08     0.00
 16   2.9848 105983.10     0.13    4934.25     0.10
 17   2.9848 105981.09     0.15    4934.26     0.04
 18   3.8858 150603.06    -0.02    6408.75     0.10
 19   3.8858 150603.81    -0.03    6408.83    -0.03
 20   3.8859 150604.60    -0.00    6409.08     0.01
 21   3.8859 150605.53     0.16    6409.26    -0.02
 22   4.1234 136010.50    -0.06    7017.09     0.08
 23   4.1234 136006.72     0.01    7016.84    -0.04
 24   4.1235 136002.55    -0.33    7016.93     0.17
 25   4.1250 135848.05    -0.38    7012.44     0.04
 26   4.1250 135844.68     0.54    7012.65     0.38
 27   4.1250 135843.35     0.28    7012.04    -0.20
 28   4.1251 135839.98 (   1.19)   7012.25 (   0.14)
 29   4.1251 135830.60    -0.55    7012.36     0.48
 30   4.1252 135826.86 (   0.64)   7012.82 (   1.09)
 31   4.1252 135823.94    -1.05    7010.73    -0.97
 32   4.1252 135820.41     0.34    7011.27    -0.29
 33   4.1254 135800.30    -0.17    7012.30     0.10
 34   4.1255 135799.54     0.07    7012.41     0.25
 35   4.1255 135798.25    -0.23    7012.20     0.08
 36   4.1255 135797.49     0.01    7012.32     0.22
 37   4.1256 135788.80 (   1.07)   7011.51 (   0.34)
 38   4.1256 135781.85    -0.39    7010.94    -0.05
 39   4.1257 135776.82     0.07    7011.20     0.38
 40   4.1262 135726.04    -0.16    7009.26    -0.24
 41   4.1262 135722.66     0.29    7009.49     0.12
 42   4.1263 135718.68     0.14    7009.14    -0.10
 43   4.1263 135714.93     0.23    7009.03    -0.09
 44   4.2163 128058.84     0.20    6661.97     0.16
 45   4.2163 128056.82     0.18    6661.76     0.12
 46   4.2163 128054.73     0.10    6661.68     0.20
 47   4.2164 128052.85     0.21    6661.25    -0.06
 48   5.1549 181388.10    -0.04    9304.67    -0.15
 49   5.1549 181387.17     0.12    9304.81     0.03
 50   5.1549 181385.82    -0.15    9304.67    -0.06
 51   5.1549 181384.96     0.07    9304.68     0.00
 52   5.1549 181383.85     0.05    9304.62    -0.01
 53   5.1605 180700.14     0.30    9276.62     0.06
 54   5.1605 180697.69    -0.02    9276.42    -0.04
 55   5.1605 180695.47    -0.10    9276.29    -0.07
 56   5.1631 180391.11    -0.08    9263.35    -0.20
 57   5.1631 180390.19     0.06    9263.49    -0.02
 58   5.1631 180388.90    -0.18    9263.23    -0.23
 59   5.1631 180387.12     0.16    9263.38     0.02

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15HP9    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        18.167    18.168    18.166
ecceobj         0.267     0.267     0.267
incobj          3.069     3.069     3.069
qmin           13.019    12.992    12.991
qmax           23.507    23.748    23.240
amean          18.324    18.528    18.074
amin           17.886    17.876    17.780
amax           18.589    18.834    18.370
emean           0.267     0.254     0.266
emin            0.261     0.235     0.259
emax            0.272     0.273     0.273
imean           2.443     3.725     2.434
imin            1.937     1.937     1.937
imax            2.781     6.175     2.641
excite_mean     0.270     0.263     0.269
fracstop        0.001     0.005     0.002
cjmean          3.146     3.138     3.158

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        56.8     140.3      66.8
kozaiamp         19.3     111.0      31.4