The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DY248 # Created Sat Apr 27 01:17:02 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 13 observations of 13 # Arc: 5.12d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/22 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000000 0.082164 -0.000000 -0.006172 0.036127 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 15 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 24.09 DOF: 21 RMS: 0.24 # Min/Max residuals: -0.49 0.51 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.717308E-05 3.006112E-02 -4.544744E-06 -5.734231E-03 2.792355E-02 8.689243E-03 # Covariance matrix: 4.7832E-11 8.3726E-08 1.2685E-12 -6.9722E-10 1.3165E-08 -9.3733E-08 8.3726E-08 1.4746E-04 2.2330E-09 -1.2273E-06 2.3177E-05 -1.6762E-04 1.2685E-12 2.2330E-09 2.8702E-13 -4.5214E-11 3.5100E-10 -2.5091E-09 -6.9722E-10 -1.2273E-06 -4.5214E-11 1.5275E-08 -1.9292E-07 1.3718E-06 1.3165E-08 2.3177E-05 3.5100E-10 -1.9292E-07 3.6430E-06 -2.6244E-05 -9.3733E-08 -1.6762E-04 -2.5091E-09 1.3718E-06 -2.6244E-05 4.8966E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -10.874354 147.439495 -0.006980 -0.185673 -0.967528 2457070.628078 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 35.88738 +/- 58.574 Argument of Peri: 156.17795 +/- 144.826 Long of Asc Node: 283.67848 +/- 11.340 Inclination: 15.11489 +/- 3.007 Eccentricity: 0.34125724 +/- 0.6172 Semi-Major Axis: 46.81365429 +/- 27.4768 Time of Perihelion: 2445407.8710 +/- 16028.5 Perihelion: 30.83815603 +/- 34.0939 Aphelion: 62.78915256 +/- 46.8290 Period (y) 320.3074 +/- 282.00 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -30.47868030 +/- 2.0260 Ecliptic Y 19.45200080 +/- 1.2939 Ecliptic Z -6.75636704 +/- 0.4618 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00220570 +/- 0.0015 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00209654 +/- 0.0018 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00071277 +/- 0.0004 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 36.78285992 +/- 1.8148 Geocenter to KBO 35.81206854 +/- 2.4479 # Hcoef: 8.17
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DY248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DY248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.12730 09 43 40.92 +02 07 43.9 24.2g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.21274 09 43 40.46 +02 07 45.9 24.2g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.05610 09 43 36.01 +02 08 06.6 24.4g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.12388 09 43 35.64 +02 08 08.2 23.9g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.19155 09 43 35.28 +02 08 10.2 24.2g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.33048 09 43 34.53 +02 08 13.9 24.3g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.05286 09 43 30.68 +02 08 31.9 24.6g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.18971 09 43 29.95 +02 08 35.6 24.3g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.25846 09 43 29.59 +02 08 37.2 23.8g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.32747 09 43 29.24 +02 08 38.9 24.0g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.04541 09 43 14.96 +02 09 49.2 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.18068 09 43 14.25 +02 09 53.2 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.24934 09 43 13.87 +02 09 54.2 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.27
2 0.0002 -7.17 0.02 -0.43 0.16
3 0.0025 -76.95 0.31 -3.31 -0.13
4 0.0027 -82.71 0.26 -3.66 -0.26
5 0.0029 -88.47 0.22 -3.59 0.05
6 0.0033 -100.30 0.11 -3.87 0.23
7 0.0053 -160.70 -0.47 -6.27 -0.27
8 0.0056 -172.25 -0.49 -6.46 -0.04
9 0.0058 -177.87 -0.30 -6.76 -0.13
10 0.0060 -183.38 -0.01 -6.92 -0.08
11 0.0135 -408.61 0.09 -12.49 0.04
12 0.0138 -419.98 0.07 -12.30 0.51
13 0.0140 -425.68 0.14 -13.26 -0.32
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DY248 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0