The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DW248 # Created Sat Apr 20 01:17:05 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 55 observations of 55 # Arc: 14.87y # First observation: 2004/01/28 # Last observation: 2018/12/12 # Chi-squared of fit: 64.07 DOF: 104 RMS: 0.19 # Min/Max residuals: -0.55 0.40 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.463830E-05 2.213158E-02 -6.065181E-06 -9.491799E-03 2.380955E-02 4.973577E-03 # Covariance matrix: 3.5015E-13 -5.2853E-14 -2.1659E-14 1.2048E-14 2.1647E-15 -9.2921E-14 -5.2853E-14 3.7532E-14 2.1400E-14 -1.5424E-14 8.8433E-14 1.2105E-13 -2.1659E-14 2.1400E-14 3.0505E-13 -3.3869E-14 4.4576E-14 7.2960E-14 1.2048E-14 -1.5424E-14 -3.3869E-14 9.0396E-15 -3.9392E-14 -5.3014E-14 2.1647E-15 8.8433E-14 4.4576E-14 -3.9392E-14 3.7103E-13 3.1247E-13 -9.2921E-14 1.2105E-13 7.2960E-14 -5.3014E-14 3.1247E-13 4.1624E-13 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -7.445504 132.086257 0.076380 -0.126618 -0.969332 2453032.841018 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2453032.5000 = 2004/01/28 Mean Anomaly: 38.44606 +/- 0.009 Argument of Peri: 135.90947 +/- 0.015 Long of Asc Node: 295.51805 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 24.24762 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.25662433 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 51.53618440 +/- 0.0058 Time of Perihelion: 2438600.8441 +/- 4.2 Perihelion: 38.31074576 +/- 0.0048 Aphelion: 64.76162304 +/- 0.0076 Period (y) 369.9786 +/- 0.06 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -28.51556353 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Y 31.68581206 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic Z -5.44273285 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00217791 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00139635 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00115622 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 42.97370951 +/- 0.0008 Geocenter to KBO 41.99985803 +/- 0.0011 # Hcoef: 6.17
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DW248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DW248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2004 01 28.340275 08 49 46.60 +10 00 37.2 22.1r 15DW248 645 C~5i3V 2004 01 28.341105 08 49 46.60 +10 00 37.3 21.7i 15DW248 645 C~5i3V 2004 01 28.342763 08 49 46.59 +10 00 37.4 21.5z 15DW248 645 C~5i3V 2004 01 28.343592 08 49 46.58 +10 00 37.2 22.7g 15DW248 645 C~5i3V 2011 06 04.033223 09 14 52.92 +04 34 36.1 22.6r 15DW248 807 C~5i3V 2011 06 04.035132 09 14 52.92 +04 34 36.1 22.5r 15DW248 807 C~5i3V 2011 06 04.037038 09 14 52.92 +04 34 36.0 22.4r 15DW248 807 C~5i3V 2011 06 04.040854 09 14 52.92 +04 34 36.0 22.5r 15DW248 807 C~5i3V 2013 04 02.029954 09 22 24.59 +02 48 21.4 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2013 04 03.043884 09 22 22.18 +02 48 42.1 22.4z 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2015 02 17.12594 09 32 48.83 +00 56 18.1 23.0g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.21138 09 32 48.43 +00 56 19.7 23.0g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.28002 09 32 48.12 +00 56 21.1 23.2g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.05474 09 32 44.70 +00 56 36.1 23.0g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.12251 09 32 44.39 +00 56 37.4 22.9g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.19020 09 32 44.08 +00 56 38.7 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.26016 09 32 43.77 +00 56 40.1 22.9g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.32908 09 32 43.46 +00 56 41.4 23.0g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.05150 09 32 40.28 +00 56 55.7 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.18835 09 32 39.64 +00 56 58.4 23.1g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.25710 09 32 39.35 +00 56 59.7 23.2g 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.32607 09 32 39.04 +00 57 01.0 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.11164 09 32 26.79 +00 57 57.0 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.24794 09 32 26.19 +00 57 59.7 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.09638 09 32 18.15 +00 58 37.6 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 27.040127 09 32 05.47 +00 59 40.4 15DW248 W84 C~444E 2015 02 27.08775 09 32 05.25 +00 59 40.9 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 27.15544 09 32 04.98 +00 59 42.6 15DW248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 03 08.220683 09 31 27.66 +01 03 03.7 22.9r 15DW248 W84 C~444E 2015 03 08.275556 09 31 27.46 +01 03 05.1 22.6i 15DW248 W84 C~444E 2015 03 14.025440 09 31 05.48 +01 05 16.8 22.6i 15DW248 W84 C~444E 2015 03 14.087743 09 31 05.23 +01 05 18.4 22.7r 15DW248 W84 C~444E 2015 03 14.158264 09 31 04.98 +01 05 19.9 23.0g 15DW248 W84 C~444E 2016 01 14.290187 09 39 01.75 +00 01 37.9 22.6r 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2016 01 14.291373 09 39 01.75 +00 01 37.8 23.4g 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2016 01 14.299935 09 39 01.71 +00 01 38.0 22.9r 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2016 12 25.46239 09 43 46.61 -00 44 54.5 23.1r 15DW248 T09 C~7xQC 2016 12 25.49171 09 43 46.52 -00 44 54.7 23.0r 15DW248 T09 C~7xQC 2016 12 25.50008 09 43 46.50 -00 44 54.9 23.1r 15DW248 T09 C~7xQC 2016 12 25.50217 09 43 46.50 -00 44 54.9 23.0r 15DW248 T09 C~7xQC 2017 01 28.41254 09 41 44.73 -00 43 12.4 23.3g 15DW248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 28.41954 09 41 44.70 -00 43 12.3 23.5g 15DW248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 28.43816 09 41 44.62 -00 43 11.9 23.5g 15DW248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 28.45502 09 41 44.57 -00 43 11.8 23.4g 15DW248 T09 C~7myj 2017 03 01.042378 09 39 26.58 -00 33 54.6 23.1g 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 04.39993 09 39 12.64 -00 32 39.1 22.6i 15DW248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 03 04.40261 09 39 12.62 -00 32 39.1 22.7i 15DW248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 03 04.41889 09 39 12.57 -00 32 38.6 22.7i 15DW248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 03 04.42698 09 39 12.53 -00 32 38.4 22.7i 15DW248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 03 04.42965 09 39 12.52 -00 32 38.4 22.7i 15DW248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 03 04.43238 09 39 12.52 -00 32 38.4 22.7i 15DW248 T09 C~7uhE 2018 02 09.300146 09 44 35.71 -01 26 59.2 22.5z 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2018 02 10.302908 09 44 31.31 -01 26 42.8 22.5z 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 12.317641 09 51 29.81 -02 13 57.5 23.3g 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 12.318694 09 51 29.81 -02 13 57.5 22.8r 15DW248 W84 C~5i3V
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.05
2 0.0000 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.04
3 0.0000 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.12
4 0.0000 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.10
5 7.3476 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.14
6 7.3476 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.14
7 7.3476 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.05
8 7.3476 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.07
9 9.1764 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.16
10 9.1792 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.21
11 11.0549 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.22
12 11.0551 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.26
13 11.0553 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.18
14 11.0574 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.15
15 11.0576 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.17
16 11.0578 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.18
17 11.0580 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.15
18 11.0581 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.19
19 11.0601 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.05
20 11.0605 0.00 -0.20 0.00 -0.04
21 11.0607 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.10
22 11.0609 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.16
23 11.0685 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.16
24 11.0689 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.25
25 11.0739 0.00 0.31 0.00 -0.55
26 11.0820 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.03
27 11.0821 0.00 -0.24 0.00 -0.55
28 11.0823 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.30
29 11.1071 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.10
30 11.1073 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.26
31 11.1230 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.20
32 11.1232 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.36
33 11.1234 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23
34 11.9615 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.18
35 11.9615 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.08
36 11.9616 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.24
37 12.9093 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.39
38 12.9094 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.37
39 12.9094 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.22
40 12.9094 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.24
41 13.0023 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.20
42 13.0023 0.00 -0.30 0.00 0.22
43 13.0023 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.40
44 13.0024 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.31
45 13.0888 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.13
46 13.0980 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.13
47 13.0980 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.07
48 13.0981 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.20
49 13.0981 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.21
50 13.0981 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.15
51 13.0981 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.09
52 14.0341 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.11
53 14.0369 0.00 0.30 0.00 -0.21
54 14.8719 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.20
55 14.8719 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.19
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DW248 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 51.271 51.272 51.271 ecceobj 0.257 0.257 0.257 incobj 24.287 24.287 24.287 qmin 37.112 37.118 37.112 qmax 65.778 65.904 65.919 amean 51.193 51.193 51.191 amin 50.736 50.730 50.706 amax 51.761 51.768 51.786 emean 0.255 0.255 0.255 emin 0.239 0.239 0.239 emax 0.272 0.273 0.274 imean 25.798 25.790 25.793 imin 25.412 25.403 25.400 imax 26.305 26.304 26.305 excite_mean 0.504 0.504 0.504 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.858 2.858 2.858 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 185.9 185.9 185.4 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0