The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DS248 # Created Fri Apr 19 01:17:09 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 16 observations of 16 # Arc: 5.12d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/22 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000001 0.014631 0.000001 0.003281 0.024702 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 19.78 DOF: 27 RMS: 0.20 # Min/Max residuals: -0.69 0.36 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.645134E-05 2.555637E-02 3.055386E-06 2.823128E-03 2.643752E-02 -1.033241E-02 # Covariance matrix: 5.3954E-11 8.6846E-08 6.5896E-13 -3.6366E-09 1.3818E-08 1.1474E-07 8.6846E-08 1.4038E-04 1.0652E-09 -5.8767E-06 2.2329E-05 1.8373E-04 6.5896E-13 1.0652E-09 2.0271E-13 -6.4318E-11 1.6943E-10 1.3374E-09 -3.6366E-09 -5.8767E-06 -6.4318E-11 2.4981E-07 -9.3481E-07 -7.6765E-06 1.3818E-08 2.2329E-05 1.6943E-10 -9.3481E-07 3.5520E-06 2.9309E-05 1.1474E-07 1.8373E-04 1.3374E-09 -7.6765E-06 2.9309E-05 4.9900E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -19.792651 142.923569 -0.084363 -0.332202 -0.923663 2457070.618708 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 303.82047 +/- 58.035 Argument of Peri: 27.81784 +/- 96.893 Long of Asc Node: 213.97841 +/- 11.872 Inclination: 20.33200 +/- 1.373 Eccentricity: 0.37727230 +/- 0.8146 Semi-Major Axis: 42.26857460 +/- 22.0998 Time of Perihelion: 2472734.4189 +/- 10532.1 Perihelion: 26.32181244 +/- 37.0810 Aphelion: 58.21533676 +/- 45.9569 Period (y) 274.8113 +/- 215.52 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -29.23265495 +/- 2.0241 Ecliptic Y 21.98138462 +/- 1.5298 Ecliptic Z -12.80814730 +/- 0.9131 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00087496 +/- 0.0022 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00266441 +/- 0.0010 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00063751 +/- 0.0009 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 38.75278083 +/- 1.7819 Geocenter to KBO 37.82502722 +/- 2.6965 # Hcoef: 7.75
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DS248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DS248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.11793 09 15 33.17 -04 52 40.0 24.1g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 17.20307 09 15 32.75 -04 52 37.3 24.1g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 17.27172 09 15 32.42 -04 52 35.3 24.3g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.04671 09 15 28.56 -04 52 12.3 24.0g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.11448 09 15 28.23 -04 52 10.3 23.8g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.18213 09 15 27.87 -04 52 08.3 23.7g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.25050 09 15 27.52 -04 52 06.3 24.0g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.32099 09 15 27.18 -04 52 03.9 24.0g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.04339 09 15 23.62 -04 51 42.6 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.18005 09 15 22.91 -04 51 38.2 23.7g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.24877 09 15 22.57 -04 51 36.2 24.3g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.31799 09 15 22.22 -04 51 33.9 24.3g 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 22.03602 09 15 08.88 -04 50 10.1 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 22.10362 09 15 08.57 -04 50 07.8 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 22.17111 09 15 08.23 -04 50 05.4 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 22.23986 09 15 07.83 -04 50 03.1 15DS248 W84 C~2iOU
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.24 0.00 -0.28
2 0.0002 -6.81 -0.12 0.56 -0.03
3 0.0004 -12.12 0.15 0.88 0.04
4 0.0025 -74.13 0.02 4.31 0.04
5 0.0027 -79.45 0.20 4.64 0.09
6 0.0029 -85.18 -0.04 4.82 -0.01
7 0.0031 -90.78 -0.09 5.05 -0.07
8 0.0033 -96.36 0.04 5.70 0.27
9 0.0053 -153.58 0.30 8.94 -0.11
10 0.0056 -165.04 -0.09 9.73 0.04
11 0.0058 -170.50 0.02 10.01 -0.01
12 0.0060 -176.19 -0.08 10.52 0.15
13 0.0135 -391.88 0.07 26.43 -0.30
14 0.0137 -397.01 0.36 27.13 -0.03
15 0.0138 -402.59 0.20 27.79 0.19
16 0.0140 -408.99 -0.69 28.06 0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DS248 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0