The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DM249 # Created Fri Apr 26 01:17:04 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 50 observations of 50 # Arc: 22.17y # First observation: 2002/02/13 # Last observation: 2024/04/14 # Chi-squared of fit: 71.87 DOF: 94 RMS: 0.21 # Min/Max residuals: -1.03 0.40 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.932852E-05 3.208174E-02 -9.675881E-07 -6.177247E-04 2.723902E-02 -5.180674E-04 # Covariance matrix: 2.3270E-13 -2.9624E-14 -6.1133E-16 1.7231E-16 4.0009E-14 -2.7491E-14 -2.9624E-14 5.8740E-15 1.8243E-16 -5.4359E-17 -8.3797E-15 7.2829E-15 -6.1133E-16 1.8243E-16 1.6263E-13 -1.0997E-14 7.1959E-16 2.2772E-16 1.7231E-16 -5.4359E-17 -1.0997E-14 8.8079E-16 -3.6055E-16 -6.2403E-17 4.0009E-14 -8.3797E-15 7.1959E-16 -3.6055E-16 1.4396E-13 -1.7062E-14 -2.7491E-14 7.2829E-15 2.2772E-16 -6.2403E-17 -1.7062E-14 1.0799E-14 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -12.310989 132.123560 -0.213424 -0.205144 -0.939625 2452318.752127 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2452318.5000 = 2002/02/13 Mean Anomaly: 358.99678 +/- 75.932 Argument of Peri: 267.38696 +/- 0.001 Long of Asc Node: 227.27442 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 12.03916 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.32965227 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 56.16456177 +/- 0.0950 Time of Perihelion: 2452746.9358 +/- 32430.1 Perihelion: 37.64978636 +/- 0.0640 Aphelion: 74.67933719 +/- 0.1265 Period (y) 420.9221 +/- 1.07 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -24.86042196 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 27.17845036 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Z -7.82768508 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00235717 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00221115 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00004934 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 37.65609999 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 36.71209051 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 7.38
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DM249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DM249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2002 02 13.251384 08 44 37.91 +05 18 52.4 22.9r 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2002 02 13.252214 08 44 37.91 +05 18 52.3 22.5i 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2002 02 13.254701 08 44 37.89 +05 18 52.4 23.5g 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2002 03 12.148729 08 42 41.91 +05 30 45.6 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2002 03 12.149559 08 42 41.93 +05 30 45.5 22.5i 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2002 03 12.152047 08 42 41.93 +05 30 45.4 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2007 03 14.229674 09 17 45.12 +02 51 02.1 23.0r 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2007 03 14.230503 09 17 45.14 +02 51 02.3 22.4i 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2007 03 14.232991 09 17 45.13 +02 51 02.3 15DM249 645 C~5iaL 2015 02 17.15671 10 14 58.84 -01 42 13.5 23.8g 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.24262 10 14 58.41 -01 42 11.1 23.7g 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.31139 10 14 58.06 -01 42 09.1 24.2g 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.35838 10 14 57.84 -01 42 08.1 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.08578 10 14 54.31 -01 41 48.8 23.7g 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.08628 10 14 54.30 -01 41 48.3 24.0g 15DM249 W84 C~5hWs 2015 02 18.15325 10 14 53.99 -01 41 47.1 23.6g 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.15375 10 14 53.97 -01 41 46.6 15DM249 W84 C~5hWs 2015 02 18.22142 10 14 53.64 -01 41 45.1 23.6g 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.29158 10 14 53.31 -01 41 43.5 23.8g 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.29208 10 14 53.28 -01 41 43.0 15DM249 W84 C~5hWs 2015 02 18.36055 10 14 52.95 -01 41 41.5 23.7g 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.36105 10 14 52.94 -01 41 40.9 15DM249 W84 C~5hWs 2015 02 22.14234 10 14 34.52 -01 39 56.8 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 22.21068 10 14 34.17 -01 39 54.5 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 22.27956 10 14 33.83 -01 39 52.8 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 22.34817 10 14 33.52 -01 39 51.5 15DM249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 03 19.013426 10 12 38.84 -01 26 50.8 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.017188 10 12 38.80 -01 26 50.8 23.8g 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.021019 10 12 38.80 -01 26 50.6 23.7g 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.024826 10 12 38.78 -01 26 50.6 23.8g 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.028611 10 12 38.76 -01 26 50.4 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.085544 10 12 38.51 -01 26 48.4 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.091667 10 12 38.49 -01 26 48.3 23.0r 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.097766 10 12 38.46 -01 26 48.0 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.103889 10 12 38.44 -01 26 47.8 22.8r 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 19.109988 10 12 38.41 -01 26 47.6 15DM249 W84 C~4UG9 2016 01 16.290118 10 24 05.68 -02 23 50.4 23.3r 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2016 01 16.291089 10 24 05.67 -02 23 50.4 23.5g 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2016 01 16.296141 10 24 05.62 -02 23 50.5 23.4r 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2016 01 16.297096 10 24 05.62 -02 23 50.6 23.8g 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2016 12 29.319412 10 31 35.33 -02 55 49.6 23.1r 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2016 12 29.320775 10 31 35.33 -02 55 49.4 23.6g 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2017 03 25.07168 10 25 44.35 -02 27 01.5 23.8V 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2017 03 25.16502 10 25 43.96 -02 26 58.3 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2017 03 26.07420 10 25 40.31 -02 26 27.4 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2021 03 03.146887 10 54 00.31 -04 42 33.2 22.7i 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2021 04 20.028457 10 50 46.07 -04 15 55.7 22.6i 15DM249 W84 C~5iaL 2024 04 14.14267 11 10 28.063 -05 46 43.75 23.3G 15DM249 G37 2024 04 14.18353 11 10 27.914 -05 46 42.32 15DM249 G37 2024 04 14.22525 11 10 27.786 -05 46 40.88 15DM249 G37
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.16
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.04
3 0.0000 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.08
4 0.0736 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.10
5 0.0736 0.00 0.24 0.00 -0.02
6 0.0737 0.00 0.37 0.00 -0.19
7 5.0787 0.00 -0.40 0.00 -0.08
8 5.0787 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.10
9 5.0787 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.02
10 13.0100 0.00 0.26 0.00 -0.08
11 13.0102 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.04
12 13.0104 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.21
13 13.0106 0.00 0.22 0.00 -0.04
14 13.0126 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.20
15 13.0126 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.29
16 13.0127 0.00 0.29 0.00 -0.31
17 13.0127 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.17
18 13.0129 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.15
19 13.0131 0.00 0.37 0.00 -0.44
20 13.0131 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.04
21 13.0133 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.31
22 13.0133 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.28
23 13.0237 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.47
24 13.0238 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.12
25 13.0240 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.38
26 13.0242 0.00 0.40 0.00 -1.03
27 13.0918 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.17
28 13.0918 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.05
29 13.0918 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.12
30 13.0918 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.01
31 13.0918 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.06
32 13.0919 0.00 -0.20 0.00 0.16
33 13.0920 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.05
34 13.0920 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.15
35 13.0920 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.14
36 13.0920 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.14
37 13.9221 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.31
38 13.9221 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.30
39 13.9221 0.00 -0.40 0.00 0.16
40 13.9221 0.00 -0.35 0.00 0.05
41 14.8749 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.07
42 14.8749 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.14
43 15.1097 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.12
44 15.1100 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.15
45 15.1125 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.08
46 19.0497 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.14
47 19.1808 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.28
48 22.1653 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.04
49 22.1655 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.09
50 22.1656 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.12
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DM249 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 55.635 55.635 55.635 ecceobj 0.323 0.323 0.323 incobj 12.038 12.038 12.038 qmin 36.980 36.985 36.956 qmax 75.516 75.519 75.545 amean 55.749 55.750 55.749 amin 55.051 55.066 55.068 amax 56.531 56.531 56.516 emean 0.320 0.320 0.320 emin 0.304 0.304 0.304 emax 0.337 0.336 0.337 imean 13.431 13.428 13.427 imin 12.822 12.806 12.834 imax 14.038 14.038 14.038 excite_mean 0.396 0.396 0.396 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.047 3.047 3.047 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 183.2 184.1 183.1 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0