The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DK249 # Created Sat Apr 20 01:17:06 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 12 observations of 12 # Arc: 25.03d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/03/14 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000000 0.026000 -0.000000 -0.000566 0.024058 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 5.68 DOF: 19 RMS: 0.12 # Min/Max residuals: -0.26 0.24 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.566434E-05 2.324244E-02 -7.951241E-07 -5.409324E-04 2.362174E-02 -7.703777E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.4263E-11 2.0088E-08 1.2146E-12 -1.8628E-10 3.2282E-09 1.6677E-08 2.0088E-08 2.8726E-05 1.7351E-09 -2.6622E-07 4.6104E-06 2.0127E-05 1.2146E-12 1.7351E-09 2.6095E-13 -1.8696E-11 2.7854E-10 1.2654E-09 -1.8628E-10 -2.6622E-07 -1.8696E-11 2.6701E-09 -4.2733E-08 -1.9041E-07 3.2282E-09 4.6104E-06 2.7854E-10 -4.2733E-08 7.4019E-07 3.4019E-06 1.6677E-08 2.0127E-05 1.2654E-09 -1.9041E-07 3.4019E-06 1.3753E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -7.000949 155.729326 0.134672 -0.118768 -0.968714 2457070.654828 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 318.45665 +/- 39.674 Argument of Peri: 338.87735 +/- 63.033 Long of Asc Node: 256.30021 +/- 1.368 Inclination: 6.96417 +/- 0.036 Eccentricity: 0.36154647 +/- 0.5033 Semi-Major Axis: 53.08528455 +/- 26.3041 Time of Perihelion: 2473373.1689 +/- 9776.2 Perihelion: 33.89248737 +/- 31.5560 Aphelion: 72.27808174 +/- 44.6812 Period (y) 386.7848 +/- 287.48 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -39.14204834 +/- 1.3951 Ecliptic Y 17.79543992 +/- 0.6292 Ecliptic Z -5.15997957 +/- 0.1879 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00029610 +/- 0.0013 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00282878 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00004670 +/- 0.0002 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 43.30592360 +/- 1.2873 Geocenter to KBO 42.33387963 +/- 1.5419 # Hcoef: 7.32
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DK249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DK249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.15405 10 19 49.05 +02 53 32.2 24.3g 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.23994 10 19 48.67 +02 53 34.2 23.8g 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.30860 10 19 48.34 +02 53 35.9 24.1g 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.35560 10 19 48.14 +02 53 36.9 24.2g 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.08311 10 19 44.91 +02 53 54.5 24.2g 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.15060 10 19 44.63 +02 53 56.2 23.9g 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.21876 10 19 44.29 +02 53 57.8 23.9g 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.07988 10 19 40.47 +02 54 18.5 24.0g 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.21698 10 19 39.85 +02 54 22.1 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.28589 10 19 39.56 +02 54 23.8 15DK249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 03 14.048773 10 18 00.03 +03 04 18.6 15DK249 W84 C~4ZGo 2015 03 14.184201 10 17 59.45 +03 04 22.3 15DK249 W84 C~4ZGo
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.09
2 0.0002 -6.03 0.12 -0.20 0.08
3 0.0004 -11.25 -0.18 -0.41 0.02
4 0.0006 -14.41 0.03 -0.57 -0.04
5 0.0025 -65.89 -0.12 -1.74 -0.05
6 0.0027 -70.41 0.20 -1.68 0.15
7 0.0029 -75.74 -0.22 -2.04 -0.07
8 0.0053 -136.57 0.01 -3.53 -0.26
9 0.0056 -146.54 -0.07 -3.54 -0.03
10 0.0058 -151.20 0.24 -3.54 0.11
11 0.0682 -1756.38 0.07 9.70 0.01
12 0.0685 -1765.81 -0.08 10.00 0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DK249 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0