The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DC249 # Created Sat Apr 27 01:17:03 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 63 observations of 63 # Arc: 18.78y # First observation: 2000/03/04 # Last observation: 2018/12/13 # Chi-squared of fit: 59.09 DOF: 120 RMS: 0.17 # Min/Max residuals: -0.37 0.36 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.620115E-05 2.716719E-02 9.456503E-07 1.964044E-03 2.621386E-02 1.236838E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.1547E-13 -2.3169E-14 2.9329E-15 -1.2562E-15 -5.6587E-15 -3.4951E-14 -2.3169E-14 8.9045E-15 -1.1394E-15 5.7682E-16 4.4287E-16 1.6513E-14 2.9329E-15 -1.1394E-15 7.9256E-14 -5.7119E-15 -9.3017E-15 -2.5218E-15 -1.2562E-15 5.7682E-16 -5.7119E-15 5.9485E-16 7.2991E-16 1.1604E-15 -5.6587E-15 4.4287E-16 -9.3017E-15 7.2991E-16 8.2274E-14 3.2785E-15 -3.4951E-14 1.6513E-14 -2.5218E-15 1.1604E-15 3.2785E-15 3.2706E-14 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -20.559346 126.116646 -0.615330 -0.275850 -0.734869 2451607.700419 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2451608.5000 = 2000/03/05 Mean Anomaly: 40.24657 +/- 0.013 Argument of Peri: 234.36063 +/- 0.015 Long of Asc Node: 204.16672 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 20.62991 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.09263844 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 41.66726621 +/- 0.0020 Time of Perihelion: 2440625.5931 +/- 3.5 Perihelion: 37.80727578 +/- 0.0021 Aphelion: 45.52725664 +/- 0.0025 Period (y) 268.9681 +/- 0.02 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -22.00681880 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Y 29.12802604 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Z -13.39658680 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00241178 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00150964 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00014681 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 38.88711070 +/- 0.0003 Geocenter to KBO 38.14777671 +/- 0.0004 # Hcoef: 7.08
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DC249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DC249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2000 03 04.199676 08 14 01.29 -01 13 20.6 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2000 03 04.200505 08 14 01.28 -01 13 20.8 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2000 03 04.202993 08 14 01.27 -01 13 20.9 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2000 04 04.145340 08 12 52.52 -00 55 08.4 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2000 04 04.146169 08 12 52.49 -00 55 08.3 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2000 04 04.148657 08 12 52.52 -00 55 08.1 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 03 19.117804 08 19 25.96 -01 19 53.9 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 03 19.118634 08 19 25.95 -01 19 53.8 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 03 19.121121 08 19 25.96 -01 19 53.5 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 03 19.135118 08 19 25.95 -01 19 53.2 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 03 19.135947 08 19 25.95 -01 19 52.9 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 03 19.138435 08 19 25.92 -01 19 53.2 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 04 17.129448 08 18 54.69 -01 03 10.9 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 04 17.130277 08 18 54.69 -01 03 11.1 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2001 04 17.132765 08 18 54.71 -01 03 10.8 15DC249 645 C~5i3V 2004 11 22.599478 08 51 27.10 -02 43 07.7 22.9r 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2004 12 10.511077 08 50 51.97 -02 48 42.7 22.8r 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2004 12 10.520659 08 50 51.95 -02 48 42.8 22.9r 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2004 12 12.597749 08 50 46.04 -02 49 08.3 22.9r 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2005 11 26.506240 08 57 21.19 -02 58 58.3 23.6g 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2005 11 26.531817 08 57 21.16 -02 58 58.9 23.5g 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2007 01 15.536635 09 00 38.23 -03 18 20.4 22.6z 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2007 01 15.566786 09 00 38.09 -03 18 19.9 22.5z 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2007 03 19.284015 08 55 54.75 -02 49 37.2 22.6z 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2007 03 19.329309 08 55 54.62 -02 49 35.5 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2007 03 21.256737 08 55 48.72 -02 48 23.8 22.4z 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2007 03 21.271815 08 55 48.67 -02 48 23.3 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2008 04 08.308226 09 01 04.98 -02 51 14.3 23.4g 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2008 04 14.242176 09 00 57.81 -02 47 45.5 23.1i 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2008 04 14.280642 09 00 57.78 -02 47 44.3 23.1i 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2008 05 05.253797 09 00 59.62 -02 36 51.9 23.1r 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2014 03 05.439591 09 38 29.01 -04 34 28.4 23.6g 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2014 03 05.445353 09 38 28.98 -04 34 28.1 23.5g 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2014 03 05.451030 09 38 28.95 -04 34 28.0 23.5g 15DC249 568 C~5i3V 2015 02 17.13532 09 45 40.89 -04 56 18.4 23.5g 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.22077 09 45 40.47 -04 56 16.1 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.28954 09 45 40.13 -04 56 14.1 23.7g 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.33653 09 45 39.89 -04 56 12.7 23.8g 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.06420 09 45 36.41 -04 55 52.1 23.3g 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.06470 09 45 36.39 -04 55 51.7 24.0g 15DC249 W84 C~2y2b 2015 02 18.13187 09 45 36.08 -04 55 50.1 23.6g 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.20010 09 45 35.72 -04 55 47.8 15DC249 W84 C~2y2b 2015 02 18.26974 09 45 35.39 -04 55 46.1 23.9g 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.27024 09 45 35.38 -04 55 45.8 15DC249 W84 C~2y2b 2015 02 18.33881 09 45 35.07 -04 55 44.1 23.5g 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.33931 09 45 35.06 -04 55 43.6 15DC249 W84 C~2y2b 2015 02 19.26660 09 45 30.60 -04 55 16.8 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.33581 09 45 30.26 -04 55 14.8 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.18893 09 45 16.60 -04 53 49.2 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.25760 09 45 16.27 -04 53 47.2 15DC249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 03 08.226944 09 44 12.05 -04 46 03.4 15DC249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 08.281916 09 44 11.80 -04 46 01.2 15DC249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 14.031215 09 43 47.45 -04 42 34.3 22.8i 15DC249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 14.115139 09 43 47.11 -04 42 31.2 23.0r 15DC249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 14.165127 09 43 46.90 -04 42 29.6 23.4g 15DC249 W84 C~4UG9 2017 03 01.155715 09 56 26.42 -05 15 20.8 23.3r 15DC249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 01.157519 09 56 26.42 -05 15 20.3 23.4g 15DC249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 02.063052 09 56 22.24 -05 14 50.5 23.5g 15DC249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 02.070685 09 56 22.20 -05 14 50.2 23.1r 15DC249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 03.112498 09 56 17.39 -05 14 15.3 23.4g 15DC249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 03.117158 09 56 17.37 -05 14 15.1 23.2r 15DC249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 13.251667 10 12 47.51 -05 53 14.4 23.4r 15DC249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 13.253638 10 12 47.53 -05 53 14.1 23.6g 15DC249 W84 C~5i3V
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.04
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.19
3 0.0000 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.37
4 0.0847 0.00 0.30 0.00 -0.05
5 0.0847 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.02
6 0.0847 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.13
7 1.0402 0.00 -0.25 0.00 -0.00
8 1.0402 0.00 -0.37 0.00 0.07
9 1.0402 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.28
10 1.0402 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.08
11 1.0402 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.35
12 1.0402 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.04
13 1.1196 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.03
14 1.1196 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.26
15 1.1196 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.04
16 4.7211 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.01
17 4.7702 0.00 -0.28 0.00 -0.07
18 4.7702 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.04
19 4.7759 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.04
20 5.7312 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.05
21 5.7312 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.02
22 6.8675 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.09
23 6.8675 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.07
24 7.0392 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.02
25 7.0394 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00
26 7.0446 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.15
27 7.0447 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.09
28 8.0961 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.13
29 8.1124 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.08
30 8.1125 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.05
31 8.1699 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.06
32 14.0020 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.03
33 14.0020 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.07
34 14.0021 0.00 -0.24 0.00 -0.03
35 14.9567 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.13
36 14.9569 0.00 0.24 0.00 -0.25
37 14.9571 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.21
38 14.9573 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.14
39 14.9592 0.00 0.23 0.00 -0.36
40 14.9592 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.02
41 14.9594 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.31
42 14.9596 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.03
43 14.9598 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.28
44 14.9598 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.00
45 14.9600 0.00 0.29 0.00 -0.28
46 14.9600 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.20
47 14.9625 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00
48 14.9627 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.03
49 14.9705 0.00 0.24 0.00 -0.01
50 14.9707 0.00 0.28 0.00 -0.11
51 15.0090 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.11
52 15.0091 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.36
53 15.0249 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.13
54 15.0251 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.16
55 15.0252 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.07
56 16.9910 0.00 -0.25 0.00 -0.09
57 16.9910 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.35
58 16.9935 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.04
59 16.9935 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.09
60 16.9963 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.02
61 16.9964 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.06
62 18.7763 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.03
63 18.7763 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.36
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DC249 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 41.643 41.643 41.643 ecceobj 0.092 0.092 0.092 incobj 20.630 20.630 20.630 qmin 37.228 37.237 37.277 qmax 46.209 46.206 46.246 amean 41.618 41.617 41.617 amin 41.281 41.286 41.260 amax 41.973 41.967 41.972 emean 0.089 0.089 0.090 emin 0.077 0.079 0.078 emax 0.101 0.102 0.102 imean 21.287 21.284 21.277 imin 20.750 20.764 20.758 imax 21.774 21.773 21.765 excite_mean 0.374 0.374 0.374 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.905 2.905 2.905 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 180.0 178.7 177.8 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 179.9