Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15CM3

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15CM3     
# Created Wed Dec 13 02:38:10 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   52 observations of   52
# Arc:   2.24y
# First observation: 2014/12/21
#  Last observation: 2017/03/18
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.021959   0.512904   0.004911  -0.154593   0.151822   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:   179.94 DOF:   98 RMS:  0.33
# Min/Max residuals:    -1.42    0.92
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  4.355866E-05  4.572410E-01 -1.246245E-05 -1.367463E-01  1.636887E-01  3.817175E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  1.2837E-13 -1.0303E-13 -8.1129E-15  3.5571E-14  1.0246E-13 -1.0376E-13
 -1.0303E-13  3.7285E-13  2.6428E-14 -1.2086E-13  9.1333E-15  3.5124E-13
 -8.1129E-15  2.6428E-14  5.3719E-14 -4.0187E-14 -3.4507E-15  2.8548E-14
  3.5571E-14 -1.2086E-13 -4.0187E-14  7.8932E-14  1.3170E-14 -1.2984E-13
  1.0246E-13  9.1333E-15 -3.4507E-15  1.3170E-14  1.7838E-13 -3.8927E-14
 -1.0376E-13  3.5124E-13  2.8548E-14 -1.2984E-13 -3.8927E-14  3.7753E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    5.302946  123.865690    0.558315    0.074934   -0.805512  2457013.089208
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457010.5000  =  2014/12/19
Mean Anomaly:            0.22602 +/-     0.000
Argument of Peri:      162.67973 +/-     0.000
Long of Asc Node:      314.94046 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            16.79624 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.50609265 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     14.04997798 +/-    0.0004
Time of Perihelion: 2456998.4228 +/-       0.0
Perihelion:           6.93938739 +/-    0.0002
Aphelion:            21.16056856 +/-    0.0006
Period (y)               52.6649 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -3.37998203 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Y            6.03463216 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z            0.56451349 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00682641 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00356349 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00221832 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO    6.93972185 +/-    0.0000
Geocenter to KBO      6.10915728 +/-    0.0000
# Hcoef: 12.68

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15CM3. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15CM3) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 12  21.58843  08 30 12.024  +24 26 09.11  21.1w 15CM3     F51  C~1gmf      
2014 12  21.60200  08 30 11.775  +24 26 09.37  21.2w 15CM3     F51  C~1gmf      
2014 12  21.60707  08 30 11.690  +24 26 09.29  21.3w 15CM3     F51  C~1gmf      
2014 12  21.61571  08 30 11.543  +24 26 09.30  21.4w 15CM3     F51  C~1gmf      
2014 12  21.62078  08 30 11.464  +24 26 09.41  21.3w 15CM3     F51  C~1gmf      
2014 12  21.62945  08 30 11.296  +24 26 09.46  21.3w 15CM3     F51  C~1gmf      
2014 12  21.63459  08 30 11.209  +24 26 09.52  21.5w 15CM3     F51  C~1gmf      
2015 01  28.35834  08 15 42.41   +24 31 17.7   20.7r 15CM3     G45  C~1M8k      
2015 01  28.36656  08 15 42.20   +24 31 18.0   20.4r 15CM3     G45  C~1M8k      
2015 01  28.38408  08 15 41.81   +24 31 17.7   21.0r 15CM3     G45  C~1M8k      
2015 01  28.38829  08 15 41.64   +24 31 18.6   20.8r 15CM3     G45  C~1M8k      
2015 02  10.23985  08 10 32.46   +24 27 44.1   20.3V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  10.25028  08 10 32.22   +24 27 43.3   20.6V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  10.25868  08 10 32.07   +24 27 43.0   20.5V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  10.26706  08 10 31.88   +24 27 42.8   20.6V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  11.30259  08 10 08.70   +24 27 14.1   20.8V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  11.30426  08 10 08.68   +24 27 14.0   21.3V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  11.30602  08 10 08.64   +24 27 14.1   21.0V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  11.30768  08 10 08.59   +24 27 14.1   21.1V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  11.30943  08 10 08.53   +24 27 14.4   20.4V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  11.31110  08 10 08.49   +24 27 13.6   20.8V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  11.31283  08 10 08.46   +24 27 14.1   20.8V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  11.31450  08 10 08.40   +24 27 14.0   20.5V 15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  12.29248  08 09 46.90   +24 26 44.8         15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  12.29426  08 09 46.84   +24 26 44.9         15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 02  12.29604  08 09 46.79   +24 26 45.0         15CM3     G96  C~1Iy2      
2015 03  16.13337  08 02 02.62   +23 55 58.3   21.0R 15CM3     G37  C~1OVC      
2015 03  16.20179  08 02 02.17   +23 55 52.6         15CM3     G37  C~1OVC      
2015 12  17.37501  10 00 39.40   +09 51 14.8   21.5R 15CM3     H36  C~1gmf      
2015 12  17.44867  10 00 39.19   +09 51 09.4   21.6R 15CM3     H36  C~1gmf      
2015 12  18.37927  10 00 36.06   +09 49 59.5   21.3R 15CM3     H36  C~1gmf      
2015 12  18.45363  10 00 35.80   +09 49 55.2   21.4R 15CM3     H36  C~1gmf      
2016 02  01.38450  09 50 03.658  +09 37 44.21  21.2w 15CM3     F51  C~1k4N      
2016 02  01.39592  09 50 03.406  +09 37 44.62  21.4w 15CM3     F51  C~1k4N      
2016 02  01.40736  09 50 03.150  +09 37 44.93  21.3w 15CM3     F51  C~1k4N      
2016 02  01.41885  09 50 02.902  +09 37 45.21  21.4w 15CM3     F51  C~1k4N      
2016 02  09.31643  09 47 06.63   +09 42 14.3   20.8V 15CM3     691  C~1l4m      
2016 02  09.33513  09 47 06.21   +09 42 14.8   21.0V 15CM3     691  C~1l4m      
2016 02  09.35383  09 47 05.76   +09 42 15.4   21.0V 15CM3     691  C~1l4m      
2016 02  15.29271  09 44 50.47   +09 46 13.9   20.9V 15CM3     G96  C~1lxB      
2016 02  15.29880  09 44 50.37   +09 46 14.1   21.0V 15CM3     G96  C~1lxB      
2016 02  15.30489  09 44 50.20   +09 46 13.8   21.1V 15CM3     G96  C~1lxB      
2016 02  15.31099  09 44 50.10   +09 46 14.4   21.7V 15CM3     G96  C~1lxB      
2017 02  22.43206  10 58 21.332  -04 15 29.50  21.4w 15CM3     F51  C~28EY      
2017 02  22.45897  10 58 20.744  -04 15 28.06  21.7w 15CM3     F51  C~28EY      
2017 02  22.47242  10 58 20.463  -04 15 27.60  21.5w 15CM3     F51  C~28EY      
2017 02  25.44073  10 57 19.678  -04 12 50.33  21.5w 15CM3     F51  C~29EX      
2017 02  25.45314  10 57 19.400  -04 12 49.53  21.6w 15CM3     F51  C~29EX      
2017 02  25.46557  10 57 19.142  -04 12 48.83  21.4w 15CM3     F51  C~29EX      
2017 03  18.39600  10 50 12.564  -03 47 12.66  21.3i 15CM3     F51  C~2B01      
2017 03  18.40919  10 50 12.329  -03 47 11.80  21.1i 15CM3     F51  C~2B01      
2017 03  18.43564  10 50 11.811  -03 47 09.03  21.4i 15CM3     F51  C~2B01      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.15
  2   0.0000     -3.36    -0.02      -0.58    -0.06
  3   0.0001     -4.47     0.08      -0.94    -0.16
  4   0.0001     -6.42     0.18      -1.41    -0.21
  5   0.0001     -7.49     0.31      -1.57    -0.11
  6   0.0001     -9.73     0.12      -2.08    -0.19
  7   0.0001    -10.89     0.17      -2.31    -0.16
  8   0.1034 -11635.09    -0.20   -2441.72    -0.23
  9   0.1034 -11637.97    -0.27   -2442.05     0.13
 10   0.1035 -11643.11     0.56   -2443.51     0.17
 11   0.1035 -11645.58    -0.48   -2443.14     0.90
 12   0.1387 -15742.04    -0.56   -3558.04     0.36
 13   0.1387 -15745.10    -0.44   -3559.52    -0.15
 14   0.1387 -15747.05     0.17   -3560.24    -0.10
 15   0.1388 -15749.56     0.21   -3560.98    -0.06
 16   0.1416 -16055.03     0.08   -3655.56    -0.01
 17   0.1416 -16055.28     0.33   -3655.72    -0.01
 18   0.1416 -16055.84     0.30   -3655.73     0.14
 19   0.1416 -16056.51     0.13   -3655.88     0.16
 20   0.1416 -16057.38    -0.22   -3655.75     0.44
 21   0.1416 -16057.75    -0.09   -3656.65    -0.30
 22   0.1416 -16058.26    -0.08   -3656.25     0.27
 23   0.1416 -16059.04    -0.36   -3656.52     0.16
 24   0.1443 -16341.98     0.19   -3746.60    -0.11
 25   0.1443 -16342.81    -0.11   -3746.68    -0.02
 26   0.1443 -16343.50    -0.28   -3746.72     0.11
 27   0.2315 -22251.49     0.30   -6854.53     0.03
 28   0.2317 -22256.51     0.12   -6861.37     0.11
 29   0.9878  96638.80     0.27  -27894.63    -0.45
 30   0.9880  96637.81     0.92  -27901.50    -0.05
 31   0.9905  96618.07    -0.46  -27992.69    -1.42
 32   0.9907  96615.73    -0.36  -27998.67    -0.04
 33   1.1137  86487.96    -0.08  -32117.04    -0.04
 34   1.1138  86483.67    -0.07  -32117.91     0.04
 35   1.1138  86479.35    -0.08  -32118.90    -0.01
 36   1.1138  86475.18     0.08  -32119.88    -0.03
 37   1.1355  83493.04    -0.55  -32737.03     0.19
 38   1.1355  83486.02    -0.23  -32738.63     0.04
 39   1.1356  83478.48    -0.44  -32740.28    -0.16
 40   1.1518  81193.63    -0.41  -33172.40     0.21
 41   1.1518  81191.94     0.29  -33172.69     0.36
 42   1.1519  81189.33     0.07  -33173.86    -0.36
 43   1.1519  81187.47     0.60  -33173.73     0.21
 44   2.1734 201879.19     0.06  -70944.40     0.30
 45   2.1735 201862.05    -0.76  -70945.40     0.32
 46   2.1735 201854.06    -0.58  -70946.22     0.01
 47   2.1817 200080.93     0.50  -71037.24    -0.03
 48   2.1817 200072.78    -0.01  -71037.53     0.04
 49   2.1817 200065.26     0.11  -71037.87     0.06
 50   2.2390 187643.11    -0.17  -71048.81    -0.19
 51   2.2391 187636.45     0.70  -71048.80    -0.43
 52   2.2391 187621.03     0.39  -71047.53     0.33

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15CM3    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        13.821    13.821    13.821
ecceobj         0.495     0.495     0.495
incobj         16.746    16.746    16.746
qmin            6.885     6.905     6.910
qmax           24.032    22.796    21.157
amean          14.392    14.524    13.807
amin           13.772    13.021    13.537
amax           15.645    15.638    14.035
emean           0.513     0.455     0.492
emin            0.492     0.352     0.475
emax            0.536     0.506     0.508
imean          17.325    19.673    17.406
imin           16.540    16.925    16.833
imax           18.864    22.286    18.160
excite_mean     0.594     0.567     0.576
fracstop        0.002     0.007     0.001
cjmean          3.229     3.242     3.306

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       199.1     223.6     177.7
kozaiamp         39.3      70.7      21.5