Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BZ517

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BZ517   
# Created Fri Dec 15 02:38:06 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   95 observations of   95
# Arc:  70.11d
# First observation: 2014/11/18
#  Last observation: 2015/01/27
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000000   0.031942   0.000001   0.005544   0.026864   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    11.89 DOF:  184 RMS:  0.06
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.22    0.24
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.851818E-05  3.056462E-02  3.152178E-06  5.218089E-03  2.599116E-02 -1.037828E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.0436E-13 -1.2574E-13  9.0953E-16  9.0045E-14  3.7580E-13  7.7951E-11
 -1.2574E-13  1.8236E-09  2.1643E-12  4.7825E-10  1.0046E-09  1.3277E-07
  9.0953E-16  2.1643E-12  1.0504E-13 -3.4987E-14  1.2168E-12  1.6619E-10
  9.0045E-14  4.7825E-10 -3.4987E-14  1.3041E-10  2.6191E-10  3.4093E-08
  3.7580E-13  1.0046E-09  1.2168E-12  2.6191E-10  5.6188E-10  7.6040E-08
  7.7951E-11  1.3277E-07  1.6619E-10  3.4093E-08  7.6040E-08  1.0721E-05
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -9.349885  151.676421    0.983855    0.016787    0.100953  2456980.041948
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456980.5000  =  2014/11/19
Mean Anomaly:          355.26220 +/-     8.285
Argument of Peri:      326.66500 +/-    21.028
Long of Asc Node:      194.57943 +/-     0.055
Inclination:            13.27373 +/-     0.013
Eccentricity:         0.39454718 +/-    0.0227
Semi-Major Axis:     63.02446818 +/-    1.0563
Time of Perihelion: 2459385.6161 +/-    4205.6
Perihelion:          38.15834192 +/-    1.5664
Aphelion:            87.89059445 +/-    2.0529
Period (y)              500.3478 +/-     12.58
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -32.86470988 +/-    0.0305
Ecliptic Y           18.82976500 +/-    0.0164
Ecliptic Z           -6.25061253 +/-    0.0057
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00151546 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00284795 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00056022 +/-    0.0001
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   38.38905264 +/-    0.0273
Geocenter to KBO     38.47462397 +/-    0.0351
# Hcoef:  8.60

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BZ517. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BZ517) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  18.54117  10 01 27.451  +02 07 46.86  25.4g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.54922  10 01 27.459  +02 07 46.70  25.5g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.55337  10 01 27.464  +02 07 46.54  25.2g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.55736  10 01 27.473  +02 07 46.50  25.3g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.56136  10 01 27.478  +02 07 46.69  26.4g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.56541  10 01 27.479  +02 07 46.35  25.2g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.56926  10 01 27.485  +02 07 46.32  25.6g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.57725  10 01 27.497  +02 07 46.04  25.4g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.58129  10 01 27.493  +02 07 46.06  25.5g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.58521  10 01 27.504  +02 07 45.92  25.3g 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.61946  10 01 27.543  +02 07 45.26  24.3y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.62337  10 01 27.557  +02 07 45.24  24.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.62732  10 01 27.556  +02 07 45.04  24.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2014 11  18.63926  10 01 27.574  +02 07 44.88  24.2y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.53142  09 59 58.372  +02 05 02.29  23.7z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.53532  09 59 58.357  +02 05 02.34  23.7z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.54314  09 59 58.324  +02 05 02.43  23.8z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.54709  09 59 58.311  +02 05 02.52  23.8z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.57631  09 59 58.193  +02 05 03.00  23.7z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.58023  09 59 58.181  +02 05 03.07  23.5z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.58434  09 59 58.159  +02 05 03.14  23.7z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.60267  09 59 58.087  +02 05 03.38  23.8z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.60660  09 59 58.073  +02 05 03.42  23.6z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.61460  09 59 58.038  +02 05 03.52  23.9z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.61860  09 59 58.024  +02 05 03.60  23.7z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  16.63676  09 59 57.952  +02 05 03.87  23.7z 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  17.35469  09 59 55.152  +02 05 15.01  23.4i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.36381  09 59 55.111  +02 05 15.21  23.6i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.36840  09 59 55.091  +02 05 15.17  23.7i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.37302  09 59 55.077  +02 05 15.28  23.4i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.37761  09 59 55.058  +02 05 15.38  23.8i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.38220  09 59 55.035  +02 05 15.40  23.9i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.38681  09 59 55.020  +02 05 15.48  23.9i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.39143  09 59 54.999  +02 05 15.54  23.7i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.39598  09 59 54.978  +02 05 15.60  23.9i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.42356  09 59 54.866  +02 05 16.04  23.9i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.42811  09 59 54.851  +02 05 16.06  24.0i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.43267  09 59 54.829  +02 05 16.20  23.9i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.43721  09 59 54.813  +02 05 16.28  23.9i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  17.44179  09 59 54.796  +02 05 16.33  23.9i 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.37829  09 59 51.057  +02 05 31.35  23.7y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.42959  09 59 50.853  +02 05 32.16  24.2y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.43465  09 59 50.830  +02 05 32.10  24.0y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.43923  09 59 50.803  +02 05 32.24  22.9y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.45295  09 59 50.750  +02 05 32.43  22.9y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.51506  09 59 50.501  +02 05 33.36  23.3y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.51961  09 59 50.484  +02 05 33.55  23.6y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.52420  09 59 50.463  +02 05 33.62  23.5y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.53841  09 59 50.404  +02 05 33.97  23.2y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  18.54299  09 59 50.386  +02 05 33.85  24.0y 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.37835  09 59 47.024  +02 05 47.75  24.1z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.38291  09 59 46.990  +02 05 47.79  23.8z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.39213  09 59 46.955  +02 05 47.96  23.9z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.39672  09 59 46.936  +02 05 48.15  23.4z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.40132  09 59 46.928  +02 05 48.09  23.6z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.40583  09 59 46.912  +02 05 48.15  23.6z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.41042  09 59 46.884  +02 05 48.22  23.5z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.43807  09 59 46.775  +02 05 48.69  23.9z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.44262  09 59 46.751  +02 05 48.72  24.1z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.44720  09 59 46.731  +02 05 48.83  23.7z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.45178  09 59 46.712  +02 05 48.89  23.9z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  19.45625  09 59 46.693  +02 05 48.96  24.3z 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.37533  09 59 42.941  +02 06 04.64  25.4g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.38014  09 59 42.914  +02 06 04.67  25.3g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.38492  09 59 42.894  +02 06 04.81  25.4g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.38974  09 59 42.872  +02 06 04.82  25.3g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.39452  09 59 42.848  +02 06 05.08  25.3g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.39933  09 59 42.838  +02 06 05.13  25.4g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.40415  09 59 42.814  +02 06 05.18  25.5g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.40896  09 59 42.800  +02 06 05.20  25.4g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.41374  09 59 42.775  +02 06 05.32  25.2g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.44267  09 59 42.652  +02 06 05.89  25.2g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.44761  09 59 42.633  +02 06 05.95  25.1g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  20.45226  09 59 42.615  +02 06 06.03  25.5g 15BZ517   568  C~1l4m      
2015 01  21.56265  09 59 37.986  +02 06 25.57  24.1i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  21.56652  09 59 37.969  +02 06 25.64  23.9i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  21.58763  09 59 37.881  +02 06 26.03  24.1i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  21.59153  09 59 37.863  +02 06 26.07  24.1i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  21.59539  09 59 37.847  +02 06 26.15  24.0i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  21.61353  09 59 37.770  +02 06 26.49  24.1i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  21.61741  09 59 37.753  +02 06 26.55  24.4i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  21.62125  09 59 37.736  +02 06 26.61  24.0i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  21.64326  09 59 37.645  +02 06 26.95  24.1i 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.54710  09 59 12.151  +02 08 21.90  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.55890  09 59 12.084  +02 08 22.18  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.58020  09 59 12.000  +02 08 22.65  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.58410  09 59 11.969  +02 08 22.88  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.58810  09 59 11.945  +02 08 22.83  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.61050  09 59 11.856  +02 08 23.35  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.61440  09 59 11.832  +02 08 23.21  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.61830  09 59 11.801  +02 08 23.49  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.62220  09 59 11.794  +02 08 23.44  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.64030  09 59 11.724  +02 08 23.87  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.64420  09 59 11.700  +02 08 23.91  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      
2015 01  27.64810  09 59 11.683  +02 08 24.29  23.0y 15BZ517   568  C~2IuF      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.00
  2   0.0000      0.17    -0.02      -0.11    -0.00
  3   0.0000      0.29     0.01      -0.23    -0.08
  4   0.0000      0.44     0.05      -0.22    -0.02
  5   0.0001      0.44    -0.05      -0.02     0.24
  6   0.0001      0.57    -0.01      -0.33    -0.02
  7   0.0001      0.67    -0.01      -0.33     0.03
  8   0.0001      0.93     0.06      -0.53    -0.07
  9   0.0001      0.87    -0.10      -0.53    -0.02
 10   0.0001      1.07     0.00      -0.60    -0.05
 11   0.0002      1.85    -0.05      -1.02    -0.03
 12   0.0002      2.06     0.05      -0.96     0.07
 13   0.0002      2.11     0.01      -1.15    -0.07
 14   0.0003      2.42     0.03      -1.21     0.02
 15   0.1615  -1193.05     0.02    -621.88    -0.00
 16   0.1615  -1193.28     0.03    -621.91    -0.01
 17   0.1615  -1193.78     0.01    -622.00    -0.04
 18   0.1615  -1193.99     0.04    -621.99    -0.00
 19   0.1616  -1195.81     0.02    -622.16     0.03
 20   0.1616  -1196.01     0.06    -622.15     0.06
 21   0.1617  -1196.34    -0.02    -622.20     0.04
 22   0.1617  -1197.44     0.01    -622.36     0.01
 23   0.1617  -1197.65     0.05    -622.39    -0.00
 24   0.1617  -1198.17     0.01    -622.48    -0.04
 25   0.1617  -1198.40     0.03    -622.48    -0.01
 26   0.1618  -1199.50     0.04    -622.61    -0.01
 27   0.1638  -1242.72     0.08    -626.87     0.08
 28   0.1638  -1243.37    -0.00    -626.90     0.11
 29   0.1638  -1243.63     0.01    -627.04    -0.00
 30   0.1638  -1243.87     0.07    -627.01     0.05
 31   0.1638  -1244.17     0.05    -627.02     0.08
 32   0.1638  -1244.50     0.00    -627.12     0.01
 33   0.1638  -1244.74     0.05    -627.12     0.03
 34   0.1639  -1245.05     0.02    -627.18     0.01
 35   0.1639  -1245.37    -0.02    -627.23    -0.02
 36   0.1639  -1247.10    -0.03    -627.41    -0.02
 37   0.1640  -1247.31     0.04    -627.47    -0.05
 38   0.1640  -1247.67    -0.04    -627.45    -0.00
 39   0.1640  -1247.93    -0.01    -627.46     0.02
 40   0.1640  -1248.18     0.02    -627.50     0.01
 41   0.1666  -1305.94    -0.11    -633.06     0.07
 42   0.1667  -1309.09    -0.03    -633.37     0.08
 43   0.1667  -1309.39    -0.01    -633.55    -0.07
 44   0.1667  -1309.82    -0.15    -633.56    -0.05
 45   0.1668  -1310.63    -0.09    -633.66    -0.06
 46   0.1669  -1314.45     0.03    -634.10    -0.11
 47   0.1669  -1314.76     0.01    -634.01     0.01
 48   0.1670  -1315.08    -0.02    -634.05    -0.00
 49   0.1670  -1316.03    -0.07    -634.03     0.11
 50   0.1670  -1316.24     0.01    -634.24    -0.07
 51   0.1693  -1368.32     0.06    -638.87     0.06
 52   0.1693  -1368.81    -0.14    -639.01    -0.05
 53   0.1693  -1369.36    -0.11    -639.03    -0.02
 54   0.1694  -1369.69    -0.15    -638.96     0.09
 55   0.1694  -1369.78     0.06    -639.05     0.02
 56   0.1694  -1370.03     0.10    -639.08     0.01
 57   0.1694  -1370.45    -0.02    -639.16    -0.04
 58   0.1695  -1372.14     0.06    -639.29    -0.00
 59   0.1695  -1372.49    -0.00    -639.39    -0.07
 60   0.1695  -1372.81    -0.03    -639.39    -0.05
 61   0.1695  -1373.10    -0.02    -639.44    -0.06
 62   0.1695  -1373.39    -0.02    -639.47    -0.07
 63   0.1720  -1431.56     0.10    -644.48     0.01
 64   0.1720  -1431.95     0.02    -644.59    -0.08
 65   0.1721  -1432.28    -0.00    -644.57    -0.03
 66   0.1721  -1432.59    -0.00    -644.67    -0.10
 67   0.1721  -1433.02    -0.12    -644.55     0.04
 68   0.1721  -1433.18     0.03    -644.56     0.06
 69   0.1721  -1433.53    -0.01    -644.64     0.01
 70   0.1721  -1433.74     0.10    -644.69    -0.01
 71   0.1721  -1434.13     0.02    -644.71    -0.01
 72   0.1722  -1436.06    -0.02    -644.82     0.05
 73   0.1722  -1436.35     0.01    -644.87     0.04
 74   0.1722  -1436.63     0.03    -644.89     0.04
 75   0.1753  -1508.47    -0.03    -650.88    -0.00
 76   0.1753  -1508.73    -0.04    -650.90    -0.00
 77   0.1753  -1510.10    -0.01    -651.00     0.02
 78   0.1754  -1510.37    -0.02    -651.06    -0.02
 79   0.1754  -1510.62    -0.02    -651.07    -0.00
 80   0.1754  -1511.82    -0.02    -651.15     0.01
 81   0.1754  -1512.08    -0.02    -651.18     0.00
 82   0.1754  -1512.34    -0.03    -651.22    -0.01
 83   0.1755  -1513.74     0.03    -651.38    -0.05
 84   0.1917  -1911.98     0.20    -677.49     0.01
 85   0.1917  -1913.01     0.00    -677.58    -0.03
 86   0.1918  -1914.36     0.17    -677.58     0.05
 87   0.1918  -1914.87    -0.07    -677.53     0.12
 88   0.1918  -1915.19    -0.11    -677.70    -0.03
 89   0.1918  -1916.63     0.05    -677.68     0.08
 90   0.1919  -1916.91     0.03    -677.94    -0.16
 91   0.1919  -1917.45    -0.22    -677.84    -0.05
 92   0.1919  -1917.53    -0.03    -677.92    -0.11
 93   0.1919  -1918.66     0.12    -677.89    -0.00
 94   0.1919  -1919.01     0.04    -677.98    -0.08
 95   0.1919  -1919.38    -0.06    -677.71     0.20

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BZ517    quality flag:1

Type:          3:1EE  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        62.337    77.025    62.174
ecceobj         0.387     0.540     0.386
incobj         13.296    13.254    13.291
qmin           37.452    34.659    36.915
qmax           89.861   120.919    90.622
amean          62.629    76.565    62.497
amin           61.605    75.354    61.493
amax           63.966    78.227    64.078
emean           0.390     0.533     0.391
emin            0.378     0.519     0.373
emax            0.405     0.547     0.415
imean          13.342    13.975    13.113
imin           13.117    13.026    12.243
imax           13.543    15.150    13.943
excite_mean     0.454     0.585     0.452
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.064     3.012     3.064

libcent 0       179.8    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0       167.1    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       167.0     173.8     179.7
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     180.0