Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BU518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BU518   
# Created Sun Oct 22 01:38:33 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   37 observations of   37
# Arc:  15.14y
# First observation: 2002/03/12
#  Last observation: 2017/05/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.006441   0.044922   0.000717  -0.004316   0.035900   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    32.99 DOF:   68 RMS:  0.17
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.59    0.39
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.044763E-05  4.029113E-02 -3.026602E-06 -3.911410E-03  3.231145E-02 -1.873402E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.8025E-13 -7.0041E-14 -6.9723E-15  5.2802E-15 -4.9335E-15 -8.3440E-14
 -7.0041E-14  4.9296E-14  6.5221E-15 -4.6802E-15  3.6526E-14  7.4555E-14
 -6.9723E-15  6.5221E-15  2.0898E-13 -1.6941E-14  6.1010E-15  1.0189E-14
  5.2802E-15 -4.6802E-15 -1.6941E-14  1.9702E-15 -3.5255E-15 -7.3017E-15
 -4.9335E-15  3.6526E-14  6.1010E-15 -3.5255E-15  1.3918E-13  5.8235E-14
 -8.3440E-14  7.4555E-14  1.0189E-14 -7.3017E-15  5.8235E-14  1.1634E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   10.295768 -179.303348    0.153161    0.175426   -0.966199  2452345.798326
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2452340.5000  =  2002/03/07
Mean Anomaly:          352.97044 +/-     0.001
Argument of Peri:      131.51680 +/-     0.002
Long of Asc Node:       61.22113 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            11.39665 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.27606735 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     43.84790357 +/-    0.0029
Time of Perihelion: 2454411.3445 +/-       0.4
Perihelion:          31.74292892 +/-    0.0027
Aphelion:            55.95287821 +/-    0.0040
Period (y)              290.3564 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -31.43105224 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Y           -0.22411279 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z            5.53138981 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00013002 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00341363 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00035424 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   31.91484834 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     30.94877971 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  7.28

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BU518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BU518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2002 03  12.297583 12 19 04.45   +09 09 42.4   22.2V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2002 03  12.298412 12 19 04.45   +09 09 42.3   21.7V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2002 03  12.300900 12 19 04.45   +09 09 42.4   22.8V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2003 04  01.363640 12 25 22.86   +08 12 45.3   21.9V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2003 04  01.364469 12 25 22.83   +08 12 45.6   21.5V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2003 04  01.366957 12 25 22.82   +08 12 45.8   22.9V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2006 05  01.311150 12 47 08.32   +04 56 09.6   22.3V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2006 05  01.311979 12 47 08.32   +04 56 09.5   21.9V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2006 05  01.314467 12 47 08.30   +04 56 09.6   23.0V 15BU518   645  C~2FaV      
2014 05  18.28901  13 50 08.441  -04 24 29.03  22.7w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2014 05  18.30028  13 50 08.405  -04 24 28.75  22.5w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2014 05  18.31152  13 50 08.325  -04 24 28.63  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2014 05  18.32278  13 50 08.292  -04 24 28.44  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  28.61116  14 05 23.230  -06 15 40.79  22.7w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  28.62341  14 05 23.248  -06 15 40.70  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  28.63569  14 05 23.254  -06 15 40.59  22.7w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  28.64798  14 05 23.261  -06 15 40.88  22.5w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  30.58137  14 05 24.516  -06 15 30.73  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  30.59348  14 05 24.518  -06 15 30.93  22.6w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  30.60554  14 05 24.547  -06 15 30.70  22.7w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 01  30.61765  14 05 24.534  -06 15 30.64  22.6w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 02  23.59333  14 05 02.392  -06 10 21.77  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 02  23.60636  14 05 02.357  -06 10 21.43  22.5w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 02  23.63241  14 05 02.294  -06 10 21.03  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  21.48141  14 03 29.640  -05 59 49.80  22.5w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  21.49271  14 03 29.612  -05 59 49.79  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  21.50398  14 03 29.559  -05 59 49.21  22.7w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  21.51790  14 03 29.482  -05 59 48.96  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  22.45801  14 03 25.055  -05 59 22.12  22.7w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  22.46969  14 03 24.997  -05 59 21.95  22.3w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  22.48132  14 03 24.948  -05 59 21.52  22.5w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  22.49293  14 03 24.878  -05 59 21.31  22.5w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 04  21.42434  14 00 41.564  -05 44 47.81  22.3w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 04  21.43789  14 00 41.493  -05 44 47.40  22.2w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 04  21.45148  14 00 41.398  -05 44 47.44  22.4w 15BU518   F51  C~1vYB      
2017 05  02.32237  14 15 40.95   -07 56 43.8   21.9R 15BU518   G37  C~2FaV      
2017 05  02.38999  14 15 40.55   -07 56 41.8         15BU518   G37  C~2FaV      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.23
  2   0.0000      0.04    -0.03      -0.09     0.14
  3   0.0000      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.23
  4   1.0543   6516.16     0.30    -853.41    -0.23
  5   1.0543   6515.63    -0.15    -853.32    -0.14
  6   1.0543   6515.41    -0.14    -853.20     0.00
  7   4.1369  29294.35    -0.01   -3609.94    -0.07
  8   4.1369  29294.39     0.09   -3610.04    -0.15
  9   4.1369  29294.07    -0.04   -3610.07    -0.14
 10  12.1834 101976.78    -0.16  -11052.18    -0.09
 11  12.1834 101976.02     0.15  -11052.14     0.14
 12  12.1835 101974.61    -0.19  -11052.56    -0.10
 13  12.1835 101973.96     0.23  -11052.59     0.06
 14  12.8824 121671.85    -0.21  -11727.66     0.02
 15  12.8825 121672.13    -0.06  -11727.44     0.13
 16  12.8825 121672.17    -0.13  -11727.28     0.17
 17  12.8825 121672.47     0.05  -11727.54    -0.20
 18  12.8878 121689.48    -0.05  -11708.00     0.19
 19  12.8879 121689.63     0.04  -11708.20    -0.12
 20  12.8879 121690.03     0.39  -11707.75     0.22
 21  12.8879 121689.76     0.06  -11707.78     0.08
 22  12.9536 121109.71    -0.00  -11532.10     0.20
 23  12.9536 121108.88    -0.12  -11531.98     0.27
 24  12.9537 121107.50    -0.05  -11531.99     0.16
 25  13.0245 119070.97    -0.36  -11503.48    -0.05
 26  13.0245 119070.46     0.28  -11503.67    -0.20
 27  13.0245 119069.17     0.15  -11503.42     0.09
 28  13.0246 119067.64     0.05  -11503.69    -0.14
 29  13.0271 118972.65    -0.03  -11505.89     0.10
 30  13.0272 118971.51     0.04  -11506.11    -0.08
 31  13.0272 118970.38     0.12  -11505.99     0.08
 32  13.0272 118969.00    -0.05  -11506.25    -0.14
 33  13.1092 115555.56    -0.20  -11711.79    -0.15
 34  13.1092 115554.07    -0.04  -11711.85    -0.05
 35  13.1093 115552.40    -0.06  -11712.54    -0.59
 36  15.1404 136872.64     0.14  -14027.37    -0.10
 37  15.1406 136863.66    -0.04  -14027.94     0.24

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BU518    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        43.478    43.486    43.469
ecceobj         0.270     0.270     0.270
incobj         11.400    11.400    11.400
qmin           30.980    30.981    30.961
qmax           57.113    57.117    57.054
amean          43.726    43.726    43.726
amin           43.278    43.265    43.294
amax           44.280    44.271    44.234
emean           0.223     0.228     0.215
emin            0.076     0.089     0.066
emax            0.291     0.290     0.291
imean          13.127    12.950    13.342
imin            9.204     9.234     9.189
imax           18.644    18.484    18.622
excite_mean     0.326     0.327     0.326
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.969     2.969     2.970

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       241.6     246.9     238.9
kozaiamp         94.0      93.6      96.1