Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BP519

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BP519   
# Created Fri Mar 29 01:17:39 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     62 observations of     62
# Arc:   9.94y
# First observation: 2014/02/10
#  Last observation: 2024/01/20
# Chi-squared of fit:    10.98 DOF:    118 RMS:  0.07
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.28    0.44
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.480968E-05  1.649025E-02  2.809113E-07  3.005032E-04  1.796575E-02 -1.258265E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  1.6734E-13 -8.0518E-14 -5.5134E-15  2.1489E-15 -1.6775E-14 -3.5284E-13
 -8.0518E-14  5.0722E-14 -3.8856E-16 -1.7426E-15 -1.6859E-15  2.3633E-13
 -5.5134E-15 -3.8856E-16  5.9740E-14 -8.1153E-15  1.8073E-14  1.1145E-16
  2.1489E-15 -1.7426E-15 -8.1153E-15  2.3078E-15  1.3564E-15 -8.3464E-15
 -1.6775E-14 -1.6859E-15  1.8073E-14  1.3564E-15  5.7224E-14 -1.8687E-15
 -3.5284E-13  2.3633E-13  1.1145E-16 -8.3464E-15 -1.8687E-15  1.1522E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -54.019905   46.422259   -0.981129    0.065451    0.047336  2456698.607988
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456698.5000  =  2014/02/10
Mean Anomaly:          358.45996 +/-     0.002
Argument of Peri:      347.80177 +/-     0.004
Long of Asc Node:      135.34795 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            54.10684 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.92604332 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:    477.00826026 +/-    0.4739
Time of Perihelion: 2472977.1189 +/-    5646.7
Perihelion:          35.27794595 +/-    0.0501
Aphelion:           918.73857457 +/-    0.9135
Period (y)            10418.3046 +/-     15.53
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           21.77402384 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           24.31072294 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z          -45.04248435 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00257742 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00094025 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00157873 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   55.62384116 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     55.66213426 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  4.26

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BP519. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BP519) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 02  10.10721  04 01 31.614  -34 58 11.99  21.7Y 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2014 11  27.32842  04 09 43.643  -35 15 45.73  22.7g 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2014 11  27.33115  04 09 43.632  -35 15 45.72  21.5i 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 01  17.18674  04 06 29.036  -34 57 37.79  21.6r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 01  17.18674  04 06 29.04   -34 57 37.8   21.7r 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2015 01  17.18951  04 06 29.027  -34 57 37.66  22.6g 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 01  17.18951  04 06 29.03   -34 57 37.7   22.7g 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2015 01  26.13251  04 06 10.101  -34 50 52.46  21.7r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 01  27.08971  04 06 08.458  -34 50 06.42  21.2z 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 01  27.08971  04 06 08.46   -34 50 06.4   21.4z 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2015 01  28.10786  04 06 06.792  -34 49 16.79  21.3z 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 01  28.12083  04 06 06.768  -34 49 16.17  21.5i 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 01  28.12083  04 06 06.77   -34 49 16.2   21.6i 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2015 01  30.11816  04 06 03.754  -34 47 37.39  21.5i 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 02  01.04691  04 06 01.172  -34 46 00.20  21.1z 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 02  10.10854  04 05 53.273  -34 38 03.05  21.7r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 02  11.05026  04 05 52.874  -34 37 11.82  21.7r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 02  12.11980  04 05 52.501  -34 36 13.19  22.4g 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 11  20.33616  04 14 48.579  -34 53 15.70  21.6r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 11  20.33616  04 14 48.58   -34 53 15.7   21.7r 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2015 11  20.35065  04 14 48.516  -34 53 15.83  21.5i 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2015 11  20.35065  04 14 48.52   -34 53 15.8   21.5i 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2015 12  09.28438  04 13 22.092  -34 53 31.67  22.4g 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2016 02  05.07081  04 10 23.109  -34 21 18.95  21.4r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2016 02  05.07081  04 10 23.11   -34 21 19.0   21.6r 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2016 02  05.07220  04 10 23.104  -34 21 18.93  22.0g 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2016 02  05.07220  04 10 23.11   -34 21 18.9   22.3g 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2016 11  17.28184  04 19 35.244  -34 29 48.49  21.2Y 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2016 12  02.24481  04 18 26.319  -34 31 14.85  21.2i 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2016 12  02.24481  04 18 26.32   -34 31 14.8   21.3i 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2016 12  02.24619  04 18 26.315  -34 31 14.87  21.5r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2016 12  02.247576 04 18 26.301  -34 31 14.93  22.1g 15BP519   W84  C~2dZL      
2017 01  18.19247  04 15 25.170  -34 12 35.85  21.4z 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2017 02  02.14779  04 14 56.001  -34 00 36.19  21.6r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2017 02  02.14916  04 14 55.997  -34 00 36.11  21.3i 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2017 02  02.14916  04 14 56.00   -34 00 36.1   21.3i 15BP519   W84  C~3cqt      
2017 02  02.15053  04 14 55.993  -34 00 36.06  22.6g 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2017 02  18.025400 04 14 46.203  -33 46 01.12  21.6r 15BP519   W84  C~2dZL      
2017 02  18.06246  04 14 46.203  -33 45 59.01  21.6r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2017 08  06.398316 04 26 32.994  -32 54 57.90        15BP519   W84  C~2dZL      
2017 08  07.379034 04 26 35.748  -32 55 39.39        15BP519   W84  C~2dZL      
2017 08  07.419462 04 26 35.856  -32 55 41.20        15BP519   W84  C~2dZL      
2017 12  06.25847  04 22 48.708  -34 06 56.97  21.1z 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2017 12  11.29018  04 22 25.549  -34 06 20.65  21.5r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2018 01  10.137691 04 20 25.824  -33 54 22.64  22.4g 15BP519   W84  C~2dZL      
2018 01  24.09748  04 19 47.591  -33 44 28.93  21.2z 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2018 02  15.101904 04 19 19.707  -33 25 05.52  22.3g 15BP519   W84  C~2dZL      
2018 10  22.37760  04 30 47.319  -33 28 23.71  20.9Y 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2018 11  29.32106  04 28 06.613  -33 41 33.85  21.5r 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2018 12  06.05245  04 27 34.932  -33 41 32.72  22.3g 15BP519   W84  C~4yW0      
2022 10  31.23797  04 49 59.36   -31 34 54.1   21.1G 15BP519   X01  C~5z4N      
2022 11  01.27007  04 49 55.48   -31 35 27.9   21.0G 15BP519   X01  C~5z4N      
2022 12  04.418866 04 47 26.624  -31 44 59.62  20.5i 15BP519   F51  C~678U      
2022 12  04.430644 04 47 26.569  -31 44 59.49  20.6i 15BP519   F51  C~678U      
2022 12  04.442431 04 47 26.507  -31 44 59.54  20.4i 15BP519   F51  C~678U      
2023 01  19.285060 04 44 10.265  -31 27 52.13  21.3w 15BP519   F52  C~6B8e      
2023 01  19.294623 04 44 10.228  -31 27 51.87  21.3w 15BP519   F52  C~6B8e      
2023 01  19.304156 04 44 10.190  -31 27 51.19  21.2w 15BP519   F52  C~6B8e      
2023 01  19.313693 04 44 10.164  -31 27 50.91  21.4w 15BP519   F52  C~6B8e      
2024 01  20.239852 04 49 13.084  -30 54 41.65  21.4w 15BP519   F51  C~7grk      
2024 01  20.250868 04 49 13.068  -30 54 41.30  21.2w 15BP519   F51  C~7grk      
2024 01  20.262689 04 49 13.038  -30 54 40.74  21.3w 15BP519   F51  C~7grk      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.02
     2   0.7946      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.01
     3   0.7946      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.01
     4   0.9338      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.00
     5   0.9338      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.01
     6   0.9338      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.02
     7   0.9338      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.02
     8   0.9583      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.00
     9   0.9609      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.03
    10   0.9609      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.05
    11   0.9637      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.00
    12   0.9638      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.02
    13   0.9638      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.05
    14   0.9692      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.01
    15   0.9745      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.02
    16   0.9993      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.00
    17   1.0019      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.01
    18   1.0048      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.07
    19   1.7748      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.00
    20   1.7748      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.00
    21   1.7748      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.04
    22   1.7748      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.01
    23   1.8266      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.01
    24   1.9848      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.04
    25   1.9848      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.01
    26   1.9848      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.01
    27   1.9848      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.04
    28   2.7684      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.14
    29   2.8094      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.09
    30   2.8094      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.04
    31   2.8094      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.01
    32   2.8094      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.05
    33   2.9379      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.03
    34   2.9789      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.01
    35   2.9789      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.03
    36   2.9789      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.02
    37   2.9789      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.00
    38   3.0224      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.03
    39   3.0225      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.00
    40   3.4861      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.02
    41   3.4888      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.04
    42   3.4889      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.03
    43   3.8197      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.04
    44   3.8335      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.03
    45   3.9152      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.02
    46   3.9534      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.03
    47   4.0137      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.01
    48   4.6962      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.09
    49   4.8000      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.01
    50   4.8185      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.06
    51   8.7204      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.01
    52   8.7232      0.00     0.44       0.00    -0.28
    53   8.8140      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.09
    54   8.8140      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.05
    55   8.8141      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.01
    56   8.9396      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.02
    57   8.9396      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.14
    58   8.9396      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.12
    59   8.9396      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.01
    60   9.9415      0.00    -0.28       0.00     0.10
    61   9.9415      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.03
    62   9.9416      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BP519    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj       488.913   488.866   488.960
ecceobj         0.927     0.927     0.927
incobj         54.100    54.100    54.100
qmin           32.806    32.737    32.752
qmax          989.443  1002.244  1046.565
amean         452.082   454.759   465.503
amin          410.541   418.667   436.070
amax          512.354   518.763   540.939
emean           0.922     0.922     0.924
emin            0.912     0.913     0.916
emax            0.931     0.932     0.935
imean          52.738    52.729    52.711
imin           50.233    50.181    50.205
imax           55.321    55.337    55.403
excite_mean     1.218     1.218     1.219
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          1.887     1.887     1.887

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       349.3     349.1     349.1
kozaiamp          2.0       1.8       1.8