Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BM518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BM518   
# Created Fri Dec 15 02:38:07 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   42 observations of   42
# Arc:   3.13y
# First observation: 2012/03/20
#  Last observation: 2015/05/06
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000349   0.029922   0.000001  -0.000337   0.028861   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    19.95 DOF:   78 RMS:  0.12
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.29    0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.685751E-05  2.952660E-02 -6.181685E-09 -3.256232E-04  2.839306E-02 -3.774050E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  4.8080E-13 -4.6723E-13  1.5828E-16  3.3774E-15 -2.8666E-13 -3.4517E-12
 -4.6723E-13  6.6033E-13 -1.4166E-16 -5.5945E-15  4.6765E-13  5.7666E-12
  1.5828E-16 -1.4166E-16  2.5900E-13 -9.7138E-14 -1.7488E-15 -1.3459E-15
  3.3774E-15 -5.5945E-15 -9.7138E-14  4.2082E-14 -4.8749E-15 -5.2187E-14
 -2.8666E-13  4.6765E-13 -1.7488E-15 -4.8749E-15  5.0445E-13  4.3639E-12
 -3.4517E-12  5.7666E-12 -1.3459E-15 -5.2187E-14  4.3639E-12  5.3783E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -9.049292  168.581332   -0.198878   -0.153965   -0.966734  2456006.860156
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456000.5000  =  2012/03/14
Mean Anomaly:          279.26035 +/-     0.037
Argument of Peri:        1.01855 +/-     0.025
Long of Asc Node:      262.37869 +/-     0.003
Inclination:             8.82200 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.11978181 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     36.36988285 +/-    0.0039
Time of Perihelion: 2473968.3302 +/-       7.8
Perihelion:          32.01343237 +/-    0.0097
Aphelion:            40.72633333 +/-    0.0101
Period (y)              219.3416 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -35.08922250 +/-    0.0009
Ecliptic Y            6.88588100 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z           -5.53952250 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00021139 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00285901 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00002633 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   36.18501350 +/-    0.0008
Geocenter to KBO     35.21987661 +/-    0.0009
# Hcoef:  6.40

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BM518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BM518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2012 03  20.35939  11 03 52.081  -03 48 53.96  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2012 03  20.37406  11 03 52.011  -03 48 53.56  22.2w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2012 03  20.38870  11 03 51.944  -03 48 52.87  22.1w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.47645  11 12 56.849  -04 46 24.41  21.8w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.49014  11 12 56.784  -04 46 24.26  22.1w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.50382  11 12 56.715  -04 46 23.82  22.1w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.51749  11 12 56.658  -04 46 23.55  22.1w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  24.39996  11 16 06.861  -05 08 23.99  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  24.41226  11 16 06.781  -05 08 23.83  22.1w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  24.42453  11 16 06.729  -05 08 23.38  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  24.43685  11 16 06.649  -05 08 22.92  22.1w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  28.30486  11 13 41.589  -04 48 13.36  22.0w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  28.30618  11 13 41.588  -04 48 13.36  22.0w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  28.31717  11 13 41.584  -04 48 12.85  21.8w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  28.31848  11 13 41.544  -04 48 13.04  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  28.32944  11 13 41.526  -04 48 12.37  22.2w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  28.33075  11 13 41.511  -04 48 12.42  22.0w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  28.34173  11 13 41.468  -04 48 11.97  22.0w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  28.34304  11 13 41.473  -04 48 12.06  21.8w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  23.49735  11 27 10.892  -06 13 41.43  22.0w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  23.50881  11 27 10.851  -06 13 41.31  22.0w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  23.52025  11 27 10.824  -06 13 41.20  22.2w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  23.53175  11 27 10.776  -06 13 41.14  22.2w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  24.44330  11 24 55.596  -06 04 27.15  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  24.45755  11 24 55.525  -06 04 26.73  21.8w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  24.47182  11 24 55.444  -06 04 26.37  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  24.48612  11 24 55.377  -06 04 26.19  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.46399  11 24 50.433  -06 03 59.74  21.8w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.47793  11 24 50.353  -06 03 59.23  22.1w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.49189  11 24 50.276  -06 03 58.84  22.0w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.50579  11 24 50.207  -06 03 58.53  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  22.39596  11 22 40.467  -05 50 43.71  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  22.40985  11 22 40.379  -05 50 43.31  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  22.42368  11 22 40.313  -05 50 42.82  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  22.43749  11 22 40.237  -05 50 42.05  22.1w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  23.42475  11 22 35.164  -05 50 07.38  21.8w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  23.43867  11 22 35.100  -05 50 06.78  21.9w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  23.45254  11 22 35.017  -05 50 06.38  21.8w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 03  23.46637  11 22 34.964  -05 50 05.72  21.7w 15BM518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 05  06.30984  11 19 38.318  -05 24 58.95  21.6i 15BM518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 05  06.32376  11 19 38.274  -05 24 58.57  21.4i 15BM518   F51  C~1vYB      
2015 05  06.35144  11 19 38.220  -05 24 57.84  21.5i 15BM518   F51  C~1vYB      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.04
  2   0.0000     -1.12     0.03      -0.04    -0.11
  3   0.0001     -2.31     0.07       0.20     0.10
  4   0.9093   8854.35    -0.07      -4.56     0.03
  5   0.9093   8853.39     0.04      -4.80    -0.11
  6   0.9094   8852.27    -0.03      -4.79    -0.01
  7   0.9094   8851.38     0.14      -4.87     0.00
  8   2.0097  11991.40     0.14    -120.94     0.15
  9   2.0097  11990.23     0.01    -121.26    -0.21
 10   2.0098  11989.34     0.16    -121.14    -0.13
 11   2.0098  11988.05    -0.08    -121.18    -0.21
 12   2.1053   9514.31    -0.09     154.61    -0.02
 13   2.1053   9514.30    -0.03     154.60    -0.04
 14   2.1053   9514.04     0.32     155.05     0.29
 15   2.1053   9513.56    -0.09     154.64    -0.13
 16   2.1053   9513.06    -0.00     155.16     0.26
 17   2.1053   9512.87    -0.12     155.03     0.12
 18   2.1054   9512.10    -0.29     155.19     0.16
 19   2.1054   9512.20    -0.11     155.14     0.09
 20   2.8450  22724.78     0.02      77.95    -0.09
 21   2.8450  22724.16    -0.05      77.83    -0.07
 22   2.8451  22723.74     0.08      77.77     0.01
 23   2.8451  22723.05    -0.07      77.55    -0.06
 24   2.9325  20625.66     0.07    -184.26     0.09
 25   2.9325  20624.51     0.09    -184.28     0.14
 26   2.9325  20623.24    -0.01    -184.41     0.07
 27   2.9326  20622.24     0.16    -184.63    -0.08
 28   2.9353  20543.21     0.12    -188.50    -0.03
 29   2.9353  20541.90    -0.04    -188.48     0.04
 30   2.9353  20540.68    -0.12    -188.56     0.02
 31   2.9354  20539.60    -0.05    -188.67    -0.02
 32   3.0035  18428.50     0.05    -197.89     0.09
 33   3.0036  18427.12    -0.12    -198.03    -0.08
 34   3.0036  18426.02    -0.03    -197.95    -0.04
 35   3.0036  18424.66    -0.19    -197.68     0.20
 36   3.0063  18340.79    -0.13    -194.76    -0.09
 37   3.0064  18339.67    -0.05    -194.57     0.06
 38   3.0064  18338.36    -0.16    -194.68    -0.09
 39   3.0065  18337.37     0.04    -194.37     0.18
 40   3.1265  15303.49     0.16     182.11    -0.11
 41   3.1265  15302.73     0.05     182.21    -0.18
 42   3.1266  15301.70     0.31     182.57    -0.16

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BM518    quality flag:3

Type:           4:3E      4:3E      4:3E

axisobj        36.341    36.351    36.331
ecceobj         0.120     0.120     0.119
incobj          8.816     8.816     8.816
qmin           30.987    30.967    30.979
qmax           42.152    42.129    42.164
amean          36.478    36.478    36.478
amin           36.169    36.170    36.183
amax           36.799    36.801    36.797
emean           0.119     0.119     0.119
emin            0.092     0.092     0.091
emax            0.147     0.147     0.148
imean          11.207    11.206    11.212
imin            9.418     9.436     9.398
imax           13.041    13.033    13.048
excite_mean     0.228     0.228     0.228
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.969     2.969     2.969

libcent 0       178.8     179.1     180.8
libamp  0        36.2      35.3      38.7
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       183.1     183.2     183.1
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0