The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15BL518 # Created Fri Apr 19 01:17:06 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 70 observations of 70 # Arc: 12.13y # First observation: 2011/03/25 # Last observation: 2023/05/10 # Chi-squared of fit: 52.92 DOF: 134 RMS: 0.15 # Min/Max residuals: -0.48 0.67 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.864162E-05 3.592586E-02 -3.366050E-06 -6.806950E-03 3.026818E-02 -1.765784E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.9824E-13 -1.0152E-13 -4.4341E-14 1.7419E-14 -9.8175E-15 -1.7141E-13 -1.0152E-13 3.8626E-14 1.7851E-14 -6.9818E-15 2.4438E-15 6.8680E-14 -4.4341E-14 1.7851E-14 8.0002E-14 -1.4081E-14 -2.8921E-15 3.3869E-14 1.7419E-14 -6.9818E-15 -1.4081E-14 3.5836E-15 -1.2113E-16 -1.3194E-14 -9.8175E-15 2.4438E-15 -2.8921E-15 -1.2113E-16 6.0594E-14 2.0546E-15 -1.7141E-13 6.8680E-14 3.3869E-14 -1.3194E-14 2.0546E-15 1.2975E-13 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -11.380843 179.834501 -0.075929 -0.197032 -0.978713 2455645.877786 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2455646.5000 = 2011/03/26 Mean Anomaly: 352.57466 +/- 0.002 Argument of Peri: 239.48755 +/- 0.003 Long of Asc Node: 314.55736 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 15.33569 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.25969162 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 45.70058492 +/- 0.0023 Time of Perihelion: 2457974.0279 +/- 8.4 Perihelion: 33.83252613 +/- 0.0022 Aphelion: 57.56864370 +/- 0.0032 Period (y) 308.9519 +/- 0.02 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -33.38270666 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Y 0.01968930 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic Z -6.51946788 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00026713 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00324440 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00057206 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 34.01339367 +/- 0.0003 Geocenter to KBO 33.03805912 +/- 0.0003 # Hcoef: 6.75
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BL518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BL518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2011 03 25.37702 11 41 05.129 -10 21 54.35 22.2G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2011 03 25.38866 11 41 05.061 -10 21 53.91 22.0G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2012 01 08.59972 11 53 21.876 -11 45 16.63 22.6G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2012 03 13.40492 11 49 10.194 -11 38 41.03 21.6G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2012 04 13.38688 11 46 24.089 -11 21 31.00 21.9G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2013 03 04.49290 11 57 08.242 -12 52 57.93 21.8r 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2013 03 04.50390 11 57 08.196 -12 52 57.60 22.0r 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2013 03 04.51600 11 57 08.121 -12 52 57.26 21.8i 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2014 03 27.08606 12 02 17.46 -13 52 46.7 22.5V 15BL518 W84 C~2JAT 2014 03 27.16058 12 02 17.04 -13 52 44.3 15BL518 W84 C~2JAT 2014 03 27.21901 12 02 16.71 -13 52 42.4 15BL518 W84 C~2JAT 2014 03 27.29354 12 02 16.28 -13 52 40.1 15BL518 W84 C~2JAT 2014 03 27.30139 12 02 16.25 -13 52 39.7 15BL518 W84 C~2JAT 2014 03 27.31543 12 02 16.13 -13 52 38.9 15BL518 W84 C~2JAT 2014 03 27.32794 12 02 16.09 -13 52 38.9 15BL518 W84 C~2JAT 2014 05 25.27911 11 58 12.903 -13 18 37.45 21.9w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2014 05 25.29124 11 58 12.874 -13 18 37.15 22.3w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2014 05 25.30333 11 58 12.863 -13 18 36.76 22.1w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2014 05 25.31541 11 58 12.825 -13 18 36.56 22.0w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2014 06 02.26356 11 58 02.177 -13 15 04.78 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2014 06 02.27568 11 58 02.169 -13 15 04.55 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2014 06 02.28777 11 58 02.145 -13 15 04.04 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2014 06 02.29986 11 58 02.132 -13 15 03.77 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 01 20.59385 12 14 22.813 -15 13 26.43 22.1w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 01 20.60517 12 14 22.787 -15 13 26.66 22.1w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 01 20.61642 12 14 22.778 -15 13 26.76 22.5w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 01 20.62768 12 14 22.749 -15 13 26.86 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 01 22.60520 12 14 19.000 -15 13 56.78 22.2G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2015 01 22.61646 12 14 18.971 -15 13 57.02 22.0G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2015 01 22.62777 12 14 18.961 -15 13 57.01 22.0G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2015 01 22.63904 12 14 18.927 -15 13 57.36 22.4G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2015 02 25.51745 12 12 17.529 -15 13 58.22 22.3w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 25.52840 12 12 17.469 -15 13 58.25 22.0w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 25.53936 12 12 17.419 -15 13 58.12 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 20.47660 12 10 14.681 -15 05 47.02 22.1w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 20.48718 12 10 14.609 -15 05 46.69 22.5w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 20.49774 12 10 14.555 -15 05 46.46 22.1w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 20.51041 12 10 14.477 -15 05 45.88 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 21.42909 12 10 09.303 -15 05 19.62 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 21.43962 12 10 09.245 -15 05 19.26 22.1w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 21.45018 12 10 09.180 -15 05 19.09 22.3w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 21.46070 12 10 09.137 -15 05 18.78 22.3w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 04 25.37467 12 07 04.033 -14 45 12.85 22.1G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2015 05 18.32461 12 05 39.854 -14 31 32.49 22.5w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 05 18.33769 12 05 39.811 -14 31 31.75 22.1w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 05 18.35076 12 05 39.762 -14 31 31.28 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 05 18.36388 12 05 39.732 -14 31 30.76 22.2w 15BL518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 05 19.27810 12 05 37.342 -14 31 00.86 22.4G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2015 05 19.29035 12 05 37.278 -14 31 00.46 21.7G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2016 01 16.62078 12 21 45.739 -16 18 58.57 22.1G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2016 02 12.54050 12 20 37.902 -16 23 34.67 22.2G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2016 02 12.55147 12 20 37.851 -16 23 34.54 22.5G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2016 02 12.56245 12 20 37.795 -16 23 34.57 23.2G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2016 03 03.45105 12 19 07.411 -16 20 32.40 21.7G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2016 03 03.46223 12 19 07.356 -16 20 32.21 22.2G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2016 03 03.47330 12 19 07.302 -16 20 31.96 21.8G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2016 03 03.48442 12 19 07.227 -16 20 31.97 22.0G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2017 03 05.47565 12 26 27.294 -17 27 31.20 22.5G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2017 03 05.48700 12 26 27.205 -17 27 30.94 22.1G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2017 03 05.49835 12 26 27.151 -17 27 30.57 22.4G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2017 03 05.50972 12 26 27.090 -17 27 30.57 21.8G 15BL518 F51 C~2r7a 2022 03 07.505352 13 05 00.284 -22 46 06.82 21.7w 15BL518 F52 C~5S4l 2022 03 07.516220 13 05 00.234 -22 46 06.41 21.7w 15BL518 F52 C~5S4l 2022 03 07.537944 13 05 00.115 -22 46 05.61 21.0w 15BL518 F52 C~5S4l 2023 03 26.459191 13 11 21.565 -23 41 02.66 22.0w 15BL518 F51 C~6bzn 2023 03 26.470109 13 11 21.524 -23 41 02.84 22.1w 15BL518 F51 C~6bzn 2023 03 26.481022 13 11 21.463 -23 41 02.42 21.8w 15BL518 F51 C~6bzn 2023 05 10.311377 13 07 09.004 -23 17 18.02 22.0w 15BL518 F52 C~6n3O 2023 05 10.320868 13 07 08.946 -23 17 17.82 21.9w 15BL518 F52 C~6n3O 2023 05 10.330377 13 07 08.894 -23 17 17.27 21.9w 15BL518 F52 C~6n3O
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.05
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.01
3 0.7918 0.00 -0.32 0.00 -0.19
4 0.9693 0.00 0.24 0.00 -0.35
5 1.0541 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.03
6 1.9442 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.07
7 1.9442 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.16
8 1.9443 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.23
9 3.0054 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.08
10 3.0056 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.07
11 3.0057 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.05
12 3.0059 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.16
13 3.0060 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.02
14 3.0060 0.00 -0.48 0.00 0.33
15 3.0060 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.08
16 3.1674 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.03
17 3.1675 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.02
18 3.1675 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.02
19 3.1675 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.12
20 3.1893 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00
21 3.1893 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.06
22 3.1894 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.15
23 3.1894 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.12
24 3.8254 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.09
25 3.8254 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.04
26 3.8254 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.12
27 3.8255 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.19
28 3.8309 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01
29 3.8309 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.07
30 3.8309 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.10
31 3.8310 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.09
32 3.9237 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.04
33 3.9238 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.14
34 3.9238 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.16
35 3.9866 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.01
36 3.9866 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.02
37 3.9866 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.05
38 3.9867 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.17
39 3.9892 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.22
40 3.9892 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.28
41 3.9892 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.14
42 3.9893 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.15
43 4.0849 0.00 -0.33 0.00 -0.07
44 4.1477 0.00 0.27 0.00 -0.34
45 4.1477 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.03
46 4.1478 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.01
47 4.1478 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.09
48 4.1503 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00
49 4.1503 0.00 -0.32 0.00 0.00
50 4.8138 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.06
51 4.8875 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.23
52 4.8875 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.11
53 4.8876 0.00 -0.22 0.00 -0.15
54 4.9420 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.01
55 4.9421 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01
56 4.9421 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.06
57 4.9421 0.00 -0.20 0.00 -0.14
58 5.9469 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.14
59 5.9469 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.06
60 5.9469 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.12
61 5.9470 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.06
62 10.9518 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.27
63 10.9518 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.05
64 10.9518 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.67
65 12.0030 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.04
66 12.0030 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.36
67 12.0030 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.17
68 12.1258 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.08
69 12.1258 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.08
70 12.1258 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.10
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15BL518 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 45.707 45.707 45.707 ecceobj 0.259 0.259 0.259 incobj 15.332 15.332 15.332 qmin 33.253 33.229 32.835 qmax 60.577 60.181 59.418 amean 46.250 46.069 45.646 amin 45.557 45.555 45.038 amax 47.227 46.909 46.576 emean 0.260 0.257 0.253 emin 0.241 0.238 0.230 emax 0.286 0.283 0.279 imean 16.890 17.078 16.799 imin 15.959 16.043 15.742 imax 17.855 17.878 17.762 excite_mean 0.390 0.390 0.384 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.940 2.938 2.939 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 186.5 180.2 187.1 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0