Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BL518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BL518   
# Created Wed Oct 18 01:38:34 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   37 observations of   37
# Arc:   2.20y
# First observation: 2013/03/04
#  Last observation: 2015/05/18
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000054   0.036132   0.000019  -0.006242   0.030151   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    20.03 DOF:   68 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.53    0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.898419E-05  3.617483E-02 -3.199482E-06 -6.236098E-03  3.029164E-02 -7.994173E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  4.5885E-13 -7.9495E-13 -4.6251E-14  1.1816E-13 -3.9083E-13 -7.9045E-12
 -7.9495E-13  2.7565E-12  1.8736E-13 -4.9441E-13  1.8725E-12  3.2917E-11
 -4.6251E-14  1.8736E-13  2.8855E-13 -1.9057E-13  1.2994E-13  2.3232E-12
  1.1816E-13 -4.9441E-13 -1.9057E-13  1.9514E-13 -3.5083E-13 -6.1339E-12
 -3.9083E-13  1.8725E-12  1.2994E-13 -3.5083E-13  1.4442E-12  2.3280E-11
 -7.9045E-12  3.2917E-11  2.3232E-12 -6.1339E-12  2.3280E-11  4.0835E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -12.087318 -175.453193    0.347538   -0.194497   -0.908441  2456355.993678
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456350.5000  =  2013/02/27
Mean Anomaly:          355.15114 +/-     0.084
Argument of Peri:      239.07295 +/-     0.150
Long of Asc Node:      314.46008 +/-     0.002
Inclination:            15.31287 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.26303187 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     45.92229088 +/-    0.0063
Time of Perihelion: 2457881.4849 +/-      26.5
Perihelion:          33.84326499 +/-    0.0074
Aphelion:            58.00131676 +/-    0.0098
Period (y)              311.2028 +/-      0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -33.13161024 +/-    0.0013
Ecliptic Y           -2.28429616 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z           -6.91296610 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00044103 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00324363 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00053587 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   33.92212710 +/-    0.0012
Geocenter to KBO     33.01241183 +/-    0.0013
# Hcoef:  6.82

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BL518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BL518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2013 03  04.49290  11 57 08.242  -12 52 57.93  21.8r 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 03  04.50390  11 57 08.196  -12 52 57.60  22.0r 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 03  04.51600  11 57 08.121  -12 52 57.26  21.8i 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  27.08606  12 02 17.46   -13 52 46.7   22.5V 15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.16058  12 02 17.04   -13 52 44.3         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.21901  12 02 16.71   -13 52 42.4         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.29354  12 02 16.28   -13 52 40.1         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.30139  12 02 16.25   -13 52 39.7         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.31543  12 02 16.13   -13 52 38.9         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 03  27.32794  12 02 16.09   -13 52 38.9         15BL518   W84  C~2JAT      
2014 05  25.27911  11 58 12.903  -13 18 37.45  21.9w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  25.29124  11 58 12.874  -13 18 37.15  22.3w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  25.30333  11 58 12.863  -13 18 36.76  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  25.31541  11 58 12.825  -13 18 36.56  22.0w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 06  02.26356  11 58 02.177  -13 15 04.78  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 06  02.27568  11 58 02.169  -13 15 04.55  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 06  02.28777  11 58 02.145  -13 15 04.04  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 06  02.29986  11 58 02.132  -13 15 03.77  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  20.59385  12 14 22.813  -15 13 26.43  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  20.60517  12 14 22.787  -15 13 26.66  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  20.61642  12 14 22.778  -15 13 26.76  22.5w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  20.62768  12 14 22.749  -15 13 26.86  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.51745  12 12 17.529  -15 13 58.22  22.3w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.52840  12 12 17.469  -15 13 58.25  22.0w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  25.53936  12 12 17.419  -15 13 58.12  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.47660  12 10 14.681  -15 05 47.02  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.48718  12 10 14.609  -15 05 46.69  22.5w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.49774  12 10 14.555  -15 05 46.46  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.51041  12 10 14.477  -15 05 45.88  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.42909  12 10 09.303  -15 05 19.62  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.43962  12 10 09.245  -15 05 19.26  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.45018  12 10 09.180  -15 05 19.09  22.3w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.46070  12 10 09.137  -15 05 18.78  22.3w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 05  18.32461  12 05 39.854  -14 31 32.49  22.5w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 05  18.33769  12 05 39.811  -14 31 31.75  22.1w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 05  18.35076  12 05 39.762  -14 31 31.28  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 05  18.36388  12 05 39.732  -14 31 30.76  22.2w 15BL518   F51  C~1vYA      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.01
  2   0.0000     -0.75     0.13       0.03     0.15
  3   0.0001     -1.89    -0.02      -0.11     0.17
  4   1.0612   5579.63    -0.02   -1457.74    -0.14
  5   1.0614   5573.06     0.02   -1458.00    -0.11
  6   1.0615   5567.89     0.05   -1458.19    -0.08
  7   1.0617   5561.23     0.01   -1458.60    -0.22
  8   1.0618   5560.67     0.15   -1458.41    -0.00
  9   1.0618   5558.74    -0.53   -1458.38     0.08
 10   1.0618   5558.21     0.04   -1458.61    -0.12
 11   1.2232   1488.72     0.11   -1022.95     0.04
 12   1.2233   1488.21     0.05   -1022.85    -0.05
 13   1.2233   1487.90     0.18   -1022.56     0.06
 14   1.2233   1487.32     0.03   -1022.60    -0.16
 15   1.2451   1259.28    -0.02    -892.13    -0.05
 16   1.2451   1259.08     0.07    -891.97    -0.08
 17   1.2452   1258.55    -0.17    -891.65     0.04
 18   1.2452   1258.27    -0.17    -891.48     0.01
 19   1.8812  17204.97     0.08   -1733.18     0.10
 20   1.8812  17204.72     0.04   -1733.54     0.03
 21   1.8812  17204.63     0.17   -1733.68     0.17
 22   1.8813  17204.29     0.04   -1733.94     0.20
 23   1.9795  15538.26    -0.01   -2473.18     0.01
 24   1.9796  15537.47    -0.01   -2473.55    -0.18
 25   1.9796  15536.75     0.06   -2473.72    -0.17
 26   2.0424  13700.56     0.07   -2720.45    -0.01
 27   2.0424  13699.47    -0.10   -2720.55    -0.05
 28   2.0424  13698.65     0.02   -2720.65    -0.07
 29   2.0425  13697.38    -0.14   -2720.56     0.10
 30   2.0450  13617.81    -0.17   -2725.94     0.14
 31   2.0450  13616.90    -0.16   -2725.94     0.21
 32   2.0451  13615.96    -0.17   -2726.15     0.06
 33   2.0451  13615.26     0.06   -2726.11     0.17
 34   2.2035   9212.80     0.32   -2412.01    -0.25
 35   2.2035   9211.93     0.11   -2411.58    -0.01
 36   2.2036   9211.09    -0.08   -2411.44    -0.05
 37   2.2036   9210.48    -0.03   -2411.13     0.07

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BL518    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        45.711    45.721    45.700
ecceobj         0.259     0.259     0.259
incobj         15.331    15.331    15.331
qmin           33.050    33.148    32.890
qmax           59.411    60.509    60.962
amean          46.002    46.226    46.244
amin           45.296    45.559    45.502
amax           46.606    47.223    47.265
emean           0.253     0.261     0.265
emin            0.236     0.237     0.239
emax            0.280     0.287     0.290
imean          17.157    16.870    16.661
imin           15.798    15.847    15.327
imax           17.931    17.869    17.761
excite_mean     0.389     0.390     0.391
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.939     2.940     2.940

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       179.8     181.4     183.3
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0