Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BK518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BK518   
# Created Sat Oct 21 01:38:33 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   15 observations of   15
# Arc:  55.88d
# First observation: 2015/01/21
#  Last observation: 2015/03/18
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000033   0.702081   0.000182  -0.051529   0.204632   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     6.29 DOF:   24 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.29    0.27
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  4.865555E-05  5.697630E-01 -3.489825E-06 -4.186160E-02  1.849643E-01 -1.804708E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  3.6873E-13  5.3130E-12  3.6846E-15 -5.5812E-13  1.9801E-12  4.0191E-11
  5.3130E-12  3.6123E-08  5.2381E-11 -2.4973E-09  4.3174E-09 -2.6338E-07
  3.6846E-15  5.2381E-11  3.6633E-13 -6.1331E-12  6.1631E-12 -3.9191E-10
 -5.5812E-13 -2.4973E-09 -6.1331E-12  2.0688E-10 -2.9898E-10  1.8204E-08
  1.9801E-12  4.3174E-09  6.1631E-12 -2.9898E-10  5.3057E-10 -3.0198E-08
  4.0191E-11 -2.6338E-07 -3.9191E-10  1.8204E-08 -3.0198E-08  2.0443E-06
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -6.672489  116.557855   -0.071624   -0.113635   -0.972785  2457043.957018
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457040.5000  =  2015/01/18
Mean Anomaly:          359.07325 +/-     0.098
Argument of Peri:      237.64360 +/-     0.418
Long of Asc Node:      243.29406 +/-     0.018
Inclination:             6.97627 +/-     0.002
Eccentricity:         0.54644399 +/-    0.0008
Semi-Major Axis:     14.06309171 +/-    0.0217
Time of Perihelion: 2457090.0882 +/-       5.2
Perihelion:           6.37839982 +/-    0.0151
Aphelion:            21.74778360 +/-    0.0354
Period (y)               52.7387 +/-      0.12
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -2.90596914 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y            5.64788261 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z           -0.62824201 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00739680 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00407780 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00058430 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO    6.38262663 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO      5.40644810 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef: 14.00

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BK518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BK518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 01  21.45624  07 49 05.768  +14 17 15.35  21.5w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  21.46908  07 49 05.465  +14 17 15.91  21.9w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  21.48209  07 49 05.134  +14 17 16.55  21.9w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  21.49485  07 49 04.841  +14 17 17.11  21.9w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  18.25283  07 39 45.376  +14 41 47.49  22.0w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  18.26478  07 39 45.199  +14 41 48.22  22.0w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  18.27684  07 39 44.998  +14 41 48.86  22.0w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  19.24233  07 39 30.806  +14 42 41.71  22.2w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  19.25435  07 39 30.630  +14 42 42.60  22.1w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  19.26639  07 39 30.451  +14 42 43.06  22.1w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  19.27850  07 39 30.263  +14 42 43.73  22.5w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  18.29823  07 36 28.112  +15 03 29.71  22.4w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  18.31070  07 36 28.159  +15 03 30.57  22.6w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  18.32307  07 36 28.157  +15 03 30.65  22.7w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  18.33557  07 36 28.184  +15 03 31.18  22.7w 15BK518   F51  C~1vYA      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.02
  2   0.0000     -4.43     0.11      -0.26    -0.01
  3   0.0001     -9.28    -0.16      -0.51     0.00
  4   0.0001    -13.57     0.04      -0.74     0.03
  5   0.0761  -8274.88    -0.05      -4.48    -0.02
  6   0.0761  -8277.54     0.07      -4.21     0.05
  7   0.0762  -8280.53    -0.12      -4.08    -0.01
  8   0.0788  -8492.83    -0.01      12.29    -0.07
  9   0.0788  -8495.50     0.02      12.72     0.16
 10   0.0789  -8498.14     0.09      12.72    -0.05
 11   0.0789  -8500.95     0.01      12.91    -0.07
 12   0.1529 -11322.68    -0.29     788.60    -0.25
 13   0.1529 -11322.15     0.13     789.57     0.27
 14   0.1530 -11322.19    -0.01     789.64    -0.08
 15   0.1530 -11321.90     0.17     790.23     0.07

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BK518    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        13.661    14.218    13.145
ecceobj         0.530     0.526     0.535
incobj          7.010     7.030     6.990
qmin            6.427     6.706     6.056
qmax           22.501    22.873    28.211
amean          13.565    14.429    16.154
amin           12.880    13.908    13.144
amax           14.501    14.802    17.213
emean           0.513     0.531     0.616
emin            0.489     0.518     0.535
emax            0.552     0.547     0.641
imean           9.544     9.169     8.720
imin            8.222     8.239     8.204
imax           10.420     9.813     9.073
excite_mean     0.540     0.555     0.635
fracstop        0.000     0.000     0.000
cjmean          3.361     3.248     3.020

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       258.0     253.4     258.4
kozaiamp         22.4      16.5      16.7