Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BJ518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BJ518   
# Created Mon Oct 23 01:38:34 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   30 observations of   32
# Arc:  11.13y
# First observation: 2006/01/31
#  Last observation: 2017/03/18
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.017359   0.048843   0.002041  -0.005481   0.044171   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    18.55 DOF:   54 RMS:  0.14
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.29    0.33
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.601423E-05  4.038559E-02 -1.949005E-06 -4.524986E-03  3.898707E-02 -8.400218E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  4.6144E-13 -1.0457E-13 -1.5601E-14  7.5959E-15 -4.2502E-14 -1.2170E-13
 -1.0457E-13  3.8495E-14  7.8183E-15 -3.8054E-15  2.4555E-14  6.0941E-14
 -1.5601E-14  7.8183E-15  3.3068E-13 -3.8769E-14  2.4285E-15  1.4539E-14
  7.5959E-15 -3.8054E-15 -3.8769E-14  5.3445E-15 -1.0573E-15 -7.0897E-15
 -4.2502E-14  2.4555E-14  2.4285E-15 -1.0573E-15  2.9515E-13  1.4588E-14
 -1.2170E-13  6.0941E-14  1.4539E-14 -7.0897E-15  1.4588E-14  1.1379E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    0.525508  144.468696    0.229220    0.008892   -0.957529  2453766.874769
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2453760.5000  =  2006/01/25
Mean Anomaly:          233.18746 +/-     0.009
Argument of Peri:      324.84205 +/-     0.004
Long of Asc Node:      328.49373 +/-     0.000
Inclination:             6.41567 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.31206511 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     21.56364606 +/-    0.0008
Time of Perihelion: 2466644.2247 +/-       0.6
Perihelion:          14.83438442 +/-    0.0007
Aphelion:            28.29290769 +/-    0.0012
Period (y)              100.1363 +/-      0.01
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -21.52275286 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           15.64583948 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z            0.23520798 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00116753 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00265530 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00032317 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   26.60970700 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     25.64953205 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  8.26

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BJ518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BJ518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2006 01  31.374015 09 47 47.44   +13 51 40.7   22.5V 15BJ518   645  C~1vYA      
2006 01  31.374844 09 47 47.44   +13 51 40.7   22.3V 15BJ518   645  C~1vYA      
2006 01  31.377332 09 47 47.40   +13 51 40.7   22.9V 15BJ518   645  C~1vYA      
2011 02  05.44632  10 31 36.398  +08 21 32.71  22.5w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2011 02  05.46058  10 31 36.306  +08 21 33.18  22.0w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2011 02  05.47502  10 31 36.204  +08 21 33.81  22.3w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2011 02  05.48944  10 31 36.090  +08 21 34.30  22.1w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.47243  10 49 07.849  +05 58 00.63  22.1w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.48611  10 49 07.733  +05 58 01.39  22.1w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.49980  10 49 07.625  +05 58 01.92  22.3w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.51345  10 49 07.518  +05 58 02.50  22.3w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  06.36389  10 56 27.983  +04 52 15.33  21.4i 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  06.37569  10 56 27.895  +04 52 16.46  21.5i 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 03  06.38753  10 56 27.798  +04 52 16.72  21.6i 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  04.29923  10 52 56.045  +05 13 10.61  22.1w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  04.32378  10 52 55.889  +05 13 11.36  22.1w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 04  04.33610  10 52 55.819  +05 13 11.87  22.1w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  19.52202  11 11 41.276  +03 01 26.03  22.1w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  19.53553  11 11 41.209  +03 01 26.24  22.3w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  19.54905  11 11 41.142  +03 01 26.89  22.1w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  19.56262  11 11 41.077  +03 01 27.03  22.3w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  15.46532  11 08 55.585  +03 15 54.63  22.2w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  15.47860  11 08 55.494  +03 15 55.58  22.0w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  15.49188  11 08 55.385  +03 15 55.49  22.0w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  15.50516  11 08 55.323  +03 15 55.92  21.9w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  16.45040  11 08 48.346  +03 16 34.91  21.9w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  16.46333  11 08 48.252  +03 16 35.36  21.9w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  16.47627  11 08 48.164  +03 16 35.94  21.9w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  16.48918  11 08 48.058  +03 16 36.35  21.8w 15BJ518   F51  C~1vYA      
2017 03  18.29515  11 25 42.771  +00 46 03.26  22.0w 15BJ518   F51  C~2B01      
2017 03  18.31844  11 25 42.569  +00 46 04.37  22.0w 15BJ518   F51  C~2B01      
2017 03  18.33016  11 25 42.467  +00 46 04.96  21.8w 15BJ518   F51  C~2B01      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.02
  2   0.0000      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.03
  3   0.0000     -0.55    -0.09      -0.19    -0.16
  4   5.0132  43825.41    -0.28   -4986.88    -0.03
  5   5.0132  43823.90    -0.08   -4986.94    -0.04
  6   5.0133  43822.18    -0.06   -4986.91     0.05
  7   5.0133  43820.35    -0.16   -4987.07    -0.05
  8   7.0420  62764.45     0.20   -7289.80    -0.09
  9   7.0421  62762.39    -0.05   -7289.73     0.03
 10   7.0421  62760.54    -0.08   -7289.84    -0.02
 11   7.0421  62758.68    -0.12   -7289.90    -0.03
 12   8.0931  71152.77    -0.03   -8566.60    -0.29
 13   8.0931  71150.92    -0.18   -8566.00     0.33
 14   8.0931  71149.31    -0.10   -8566.32     0.04
 15   8.1723  67359.84     0.01   -8581.63     0.28
 16   8.1723  67357.14     0.16   -8581.81     0.11
 17   8.1724  67355.85     0.30   -8581.72     0.21
 18   8.9669  88625.25     0.11   -9693.37    -0.01
 19   8.9669  88624.06     0.12   -9693.57    -0.11
 20   8.9669  88622.66    -0.07   -9693.32     0.23
 21   8.9670  88621.54     0.01   -9693.58     0.08
 22   9.0406  85531.22     0.02   -9829.78     0.06
 23   9.0407  85529.32 (  -0.03)  -9829.38 (   0.52)
 24   9.0407  85527.60     0.10   -9830.13    -0.17
 25   9.0407  85526.40 (   0.75)  -9830.08 (  -0.06)
 26   9.0433  85395.73    -0.00   -9833.32     0.01
 27   9.0434  85394.01     0.09   -9833.44    -0.06
 28   9.0434  85392.32     0.22   -9833.39     0.05
 29   9.0434  85390.42     0.13   -9833.62    -0.13
 30  11.1264 106767.56     0.04  -12823.28    -0.02
 31  11.1265 106763.47    -0.17  -12823.39    -0.13
 32  11.1265 106761.39    -0.29  -12823.41    -0.15

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BJ518    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        21.499    21.501    21.496
ecceobj         0.312     0.312     0.313
incobj          6.430     6.430     6.430
qmin           13.262    13.383    14.134
qmax           29.101    28.537    29.149
amean          21.093    20.896    21.467
amin           20.585    20.103    21.134
amax           21.561    21.596    21.808
emean           0.343     0.322     0.327
emin            0.312     0.306     0.312
emax            0.361     0.337     0.341
imean           8.623     9.000     7.679
imin            7.624     7.622     7.191
imax            9.377    10.023     7.997
excite_mean     0.374     0.358     0.354
fracstop        0.014     0.012     0.004
cjmean          2.983     3.000     2.983

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       158.3     156.0     179.8
kozaiamp        178.0     178.1     177.8