Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BH518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BH518   
# Created Wed Oct 24 01:10:01 2018
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   79 observations of   79
# Arc:  13.93y
# First observation: 2004/01/28
#  Last observation: 2017/12/31
# Chi-squared of fit:    45.07 DOF:  152 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.42    0.31
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.011085E-05  5.219638E-02 -1.913741E-06 -5.854251E-03  4.065239E-02 -1.804686E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  4.5868E-13 -8.0556E-14 -2.2939E-14  6.6488E-15 -2.6934E-14 -5.6916E-14
 -8.0556E-14  1.8829E-14  6.4490E-15 -1.9004E-15  8.9450E-15  1.6292E-14
 -2.2939E-14  6.4490E-15  2.5693E-13 -2.2734E-14  2.5384E-16  6.3898E-15
  6.6488E-15 -1.9004E-15 -2.2734E-14  2.2220E-15 -7.9900E-16 -1.8499E-15
 -2.6934E-14  8.9450E-15  2.5384E-16 -7.9900E-16  3.2288E-14  7.4081E-15
 -5.6916E-14  1.6292E-14  6.3898E-15 -1.8499E-15  7.4081E-15  1.5834E-14
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -9.241270  130.321926    0.046364   -0.157234   -0.966746  2453032.834384
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2453032.5000  =  2004/01/28
Mean Anomaly:          338.96085 +/-     0.003
Argument of Peri:      259.94773 +/-     0.003
Long of Asc Node:      256.17567 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            10.93342 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.09463649 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     28.00701917 +/-    0.0005
Time of Perihelion: 2456196.4122 +/-       1.5
Perihelion:          25.35653330 +/-    0.0006
Aphelion:            30.65750504 +/-    0.0007
Period (y)              148.2206 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -16.31317784 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Y           19.29030769 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z           -3.95041530 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00256550 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00242095 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00036949 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   25.57034378 +/-    0.0001
Geocenter to KBO     24.59885388 +/-    0.0001
# Hcoef:  8.11

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BH518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BH518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2004 01  28.333641 08 41 01.21   +08 44 33.6   21.8V 15BH518   645  C~2JAT      
2004 01  28.334471 08 41 01.20   +08 44 33.6   21.6V 15BH518   645  C~2JAT      
2004 01  28.336958 08 41 01.18   +08 44 33.7   22.6V 15BH518   645  C~2JAT      
2011 02  10.39625  09 58 15.054  +00 40 52.62  22.2G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2011 05  25.27773  09 51 52.437  +01 41 42.12  22.4w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2011 05  25.28235  09 51 52.462  +01 41 41.88  22.3w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2011 05  25.28696  09 51 52.438  +01 41 41.63  22.2w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2011 10  27.60670  10 12 28.507  -00 06 14.05  22.3w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2011 10  27.61176  10 12 28.523  -00 06 14.31  22.4w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2011 10  27.62194  10 12 28.591  -00 06 15.01  22.1w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2012 01  19.45855  10 11 57.041  -00 40 29.01  21.7G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2012 01  19.48136  10 11 56.898  -00 40 28.96  22.4G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2012 01  20.48209  10 11 50.980  -00 40 13.62  22.1w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2012 01  20.49518  10 11 50.911  -00 40 13.18  21.8w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2012 01  20.50821  10 11 50.815  -00 40 13.10  22.0w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2012 02  15.53429  10 08 53.700  -00 28 37.64  22.4G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2012 04  12.27386  10 03 06.440  +00 12 27.94  21.4G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2012 06  11.26882  10 03 45.794  +00 33 35.87  22.4w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2012 06  11.27343  10 03 45.815  +00 33 35.76  22.2w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2012 06  11.27804  10 03 45.836  +00 33 35.79  22.2w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  21.48436  10 19 20.301  -01 36 50.28  22.4G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2014 01  24.51870  10 33 46.880  -03 02 31.72  21.9G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2014 02  22.48394  10 30 31.799  -02 48 41.03  22.5G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2015 01  24.55333  10 45 00.870  -04 13 50.01  22.2w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  24.56472  10 45 00.785  -04 13 49.63  22.2w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  24.58670  10 45 00.647  -04 13 49.42  22.1w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  24.59805  10 45 00.591  -04 13 49.18  22.4w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  26.45674  10 44 50.230  -04 13 21.69  22.4G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2015 01  26.46812  10 44 50.150  -04 13 21.67  22.3G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2015 01  26.47946  10 44 50.101  -04 13 21.55  22.2G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2015 01  26.49081  10 44 50.031  -04 13 21.13  22.2G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2015 02  20.43843  10 42 06.402  -04 02 07.96  22.0w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  20.45111  10 42 06.311  -04 02 07.20  22.1w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  20.46380  10 42 06.229  -04 02 06.92  22.3w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.35065  10 38 48.672  -03 41 36.18  22.1w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.36335  10 38 48.584  -03 41 35.48  22.0w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.37602  10 38 48.500  -03 41 35.11  22.3w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  20.42341  10 38 48.153  -03 41 32.87  22.3w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.38481  10 38 41.827  -03 40 45.70  22.0w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.39743  10 38 41.737  -03 40 44.99  21.6w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.40996  10 38 41.666  -03 40 44.40  22.0w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  21.42261  10 38 41.574  -03 40 43.71  21.9w 15BH518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 04  14.29561  10 36 28.040  -03 21 23.56  23.3G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2015 12  24.63483  10 57 55.974  -05 21 45.29  22.6G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  11.57426  10 57 12.831  -05 25 23.88  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  11.58764  10 57 12.782  -05 25 23.93  22.2G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  11.60103  10 57 12.721  -05 25 24.00  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  11.61440  10 57 12.687  -05 25 24.08  22.2G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  12.53323  10 57 09.288  -05 25 25.82  22.3G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  12.54530  10 57 09.234  -05 25 25.72  22.3G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  12.55737  10 57 09.198  -05 25 25.96  22.3G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  12.56944  10 57 09.145  -05 25 26.02  22.2G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  18.50564  10 56 44.636  -05 25 15.55  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  18.51766  10 56 44.573  -05 25 15.80  21.8G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  18.52971  10 56 44.514  -05 25 15.65  22.1G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 01  18.54173  10 56 44.465  -05 25 15.57  21.9G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 03  14.36335  10 50 43.252  -04 57 27.19  22.1G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 04  30.26217  10 46 38.312  -04 20 04.09  22.8G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 04  30.27332  10 46 38.289  -04 20 03.57  22.1G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 04  30.28443  10 46 38.269  -04 20 03.22  21.9G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2016 04  30.29557  10 46 38.213  -04 20 02.83  21.9G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 01  29.55121  11 06 59.772  -06 32 59.95  22.1G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 01  29.56433  11 06 59.709  -06 32 59.77  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 01  29.59052  11 06 59.541  -06 32 59.56  22.1G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 02  03.58526  11 06 31.256  -06 31 33.00  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 02  22.44486  11 04 28.088  -06 22 38.80  22.2G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 03  18.39802  11 01 37.454  -06 05 19.96  22.1G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 03  18.41122  11 01 37.351  -06 05 19.44  22.4G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 03  18.42445  11 01 37.259  -06 05 18.71  22.2G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 03  18.43767  11 01 37.182  -06 05 17.92  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 03  29.34016  11 00 24.323  -05 56 12.78  21.7G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 03  29.35267  11 00 24.251  -05 56 12.04  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 03  29.36514  11 00 24.157  -05 56 11.58  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 03  29.37768  11 00 24.082  -05 56 10.85  21.9G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 04  01.36560  11 00 05.391  -05 53 38.73  22.1G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 04  01.37690  11 00 05.321  -05 53 38.12  21.8G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 04  01.38821  11 00 05.245  -05 53 37.55  22.0G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 04  01.39954  11 00 05.180  -05 53 36.92  21.7G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      
2017 12  31.62031  11 19 53.175  -07 40 05.51  22.3G 15BH518   F51  C~2kRR      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.08
  2   0.0000      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.10
  3   0.0000      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.07
  4   7.0364      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.11
  5   7.3209      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.30
  6   7.3209      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.02
  7   7.3209      0.00    -0.42       0.00    -0.28
  8   7.7461      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.14
  9   7.7461      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.17
 10   7.7462      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.05
 11   7.9757      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.31
 12   7.9758      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.02
 13   7.9785      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.03
 14   7.9785      0.00     0.22       0.00     0.20
 15   7.9786      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.07
 16   8.0498      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.13
 17   8.2052      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.30
 18   8.3694      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.09
 19   8.3694      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.01
 20   8.3695      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.04
 21   9.0682      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.29
 22   9.9909      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.08
 23  10.0702      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.07
 24  10.9903      0.00     0.27       0.00    -0.06
 25  10.9904      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.16
 26  10.9904      0.00    -0.25       0.00     0.06
 27  10.9905      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.15
 28  10.9955      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.13
 29  10.9956      0.00    -0.24       0.00    -0.03
 30  10.9956      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.09
 31  10.9956      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.15
 32  11.0639      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.10
 33  11.0640      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.19
 34  11.0640      0.00     0.25       0.00    -0.00
 35  11.1404      0.00     0.27       0.00     0.18
 36  11.1404      0.00     0.24       0.00     0.26
 37  11.1404      0.00     0.26       0.00     0.01
 38  11.1406      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.06
 39  11.1432      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.09
 40  11.1432      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.18
 41  11.1433      0.00     0.22       0.00     0.15
 42  11.1433      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.22
 43  11.2087      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.32
 44  11.9050      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.12
 45  11.9541      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.00
 46  11.9542      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.01
 47  11.9542      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.05
 48  11.9542      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.09
 49  11.9567      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.02
 50  11.9568      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.13
 51  11.9568      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.09
 52  11.9568      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.13
 53  11.9731      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.18
 54  11.9731      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.13
 55  11.9732      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.04
 56  11.9732      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.02
 57  12.1260      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.40
 58  12.2544      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.01
 59  12.2545      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.07
 60  12.2545      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.04
 61  12.2545      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.10
 62  13.0054      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.04
 63  13.0054      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.05
 64  13.0055      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.23
 65  13.0192      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.01
 66  13.0708      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.05
 67  13.1364      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.01
 68  13.1364      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.11
 69  13.1365      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.03
 70  13.1365      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.12
 71  13.1663      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.05
 72  13.1664      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.05
 73  13.1664      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.12
 74  13.1664      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.03
 75  13.1746      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.02
 76  13.1747      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.01
 77  13.1747      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.01
 78  13.1747      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.06
 79  13.9255      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.12

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BH518    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        27.868    27.868    27.868
ecceobj         0.089     0.089     0.089
incobj         10.926    10.926    10.926
qmin           25.050    25.051    24.939
qmax           31.306    31.306    31.307
amean          28.329    28.175    28.226
amin           27.655    27.544    27.521
amax           28.785    28.785    28.786
emean           0.089     0.087     0.084
emin            0.083     0.075     0.065
emax            0.095     0.096     0.095
imean          12.032    12.184    12.255
imin           11.766    11.765    11.768
imax           12.396    12.480    12.658
excite_mean     0.227     0.228     0.228
fracstop        0.002     0.003     0.005
cjmean          2.955     2.955     2.955

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       279.8     286.7     294.3
kozaiamp         18.3      24.2      31.8