Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BG518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BG518   
# Created Tue Oct 24 01:38:32 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   28 observations of   28
# Arc:   2.15y
# First observation: 2013/02/15
#  Last observation: 2015/04/13
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.012862   0.221801  -0.000340   0.004873   0.100764   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    17.21 DOF:   50 RMS:  0.14
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.32    0.31
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  3.237221E-05  1.941569E-01  8.435841E-07  4.307226E-03  9.579539E-02 -3.541477E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3607E-13 -3.1731E-13  1.2253E-15 -4.9566E-15 -6.0170E-14 -4.5990E-13
 -3.1731E-13  1.2052E-12 -7.0104E-15  2.6033E-14  4.2473E-13  2.4037E-12
  1.2253E-15 -7.0104E-15  1.9218E-13 -1.0322E-13 -3.2254E-15 -1.4722E-14
 -4.9566E-15  2.6033E-14 -1.0322E-13  7.3078E-14  9.5680E-15  5.5294E-14
 -6.0170E-14  4.2473E-13 -3.2254E-15  9.5680E-15  2.7872E-13  8.7028E-13
 -4.5990E-13  2.4037E-12 -1.4722E-14  5.5294E-14  8.7028E-13  5.1091E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.428900  169.307148    0.376097   -0.022709   -0.912650  2456338.975258
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456330.5000  =  2013/02/07
Mean Anomaly:          328.73457 +/-     0.002
Argument of Peri:       10.24184 +/-     0.003
Long of Asc Node:      213.59072 +/-     0.001
Inclination:             1.81952 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.30218827 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     14.58614080 +/-    0.0003
Time of Perihelion: 2458097.6399 +/-       0.1
Perihelion:          10.17838016 +/-    0.0003
Aphelion:            18.99390143 +/-    0.0005
Period (y)               55.7082 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -11.08082120 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Y            2.47740478 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z           -0.26030878 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00004456 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00563898 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00014844 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   11.35737177 +/-    0.0001
Geocenter to KBO     10.43891537 +/-    0.0001
# Hcoef: 11.85

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BG518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BG518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2013 02  15.47448  11 18 26.598  +02 55 04.14  22.4w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.48816  11 18 26.432  +02 55 05.52  22.6w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 02  15.51551  11 18 26.078  +02 55 07.44  22.4w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 03  05.41882  11 14 20.057  +03 21 19.09  22.4w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 03  05.43376  11 14 19.830  +03 21 20.38  22.3w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 03  05.44869  11 14 19.608  +03 21 21.85  22.2w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 12  14.63596  12 02 25.716  -01 27 36.50  22.5w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 12  14.63996  12 02 25.750  -01 27 36.95  22.2w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 12  14.64396  12 02 25.763  -01 27 37.12  22.4w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2013 12  14.64797  12 02 25.820  -01 27 37.40  22.5w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  24.26742  11 43 34.634  +00 39 41.11  22.4w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  24.28070  11 43 34.615  +00 39 41.21  22.3w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  24.29397  11 43 34.587  +00 39 41.80  22.6w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2014 05  24.30724  11 43 34.571  +00 39 41.85  22.5w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  23.54789  12 48 27.088  -06 03 59.26  22.7w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  23.56326  12 48 27.096  -06 03 59.43  22.5w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  23.57866  12 48 27.085  -06 03 59.29  22.6w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 01  23.59403  12 48 27.096  -06 03 59.39  22.5w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  15.51937  12 47 01.422  -05 55 15.87  22.5w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  15.54527  12 47 01.232  -05 55 15.13  22.4w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  15.55816  12 47 01.130  -05 55 14.17  22.6w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  27.54433  12 45 10.872  -05 43 34.13  22.5w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  27.55688  12 45 10.718  -05 43 33.34  22.6w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 02  27.56942  12 45 10.584  -05 43 32.15  22.5w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 04  13.38465  12 34 51.877  -04 35 45.22  21.9w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 04  13.39550  12 34 51.720  -04 35 44.28  22.0w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 04  13.40632  12 34 51.562  -04 35 43.29  21.9w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 04  13.41717  12 34 51.403  -04 35 42.06  22.0w 15BG518   F51  C~1vYA      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.03
  2   0.0000     -2.83    -0.01       0.30     0.31
  3   0.0001     -8.46     0.14      -0.01     0.08
  4   0.0491  -4014.92     0.04       6.05     0.08
  5   0.0492  -4018.55    -0.02       5.91    -0.05
  6   0.0492  -4022.19    -0.09       5.97     0.01
  7   0.8273  43198.81     0.07    1104.95    -0.07
  8   0.8273  43199.48     0.12    1104.73    -0.26
  9   0.8273  43199.74    -0.24    1104.65    -0.32
 10   0.8273  43200.68     0.07    1104.73    -0.21
 11   1.2671  24089.88     0.04    1429.45     0.06
 12   1.2671  24089.58     0.11    1429.42    -0.04
 13   1.2671  24088.95    -0.15    1429.80     0.25
 14   1.2672  24088.71    -0.02    1429.75     0.11
 15   1.9359  92676.86    -0.09    1987.26    -0.08
 16   1.9359  92677.07     0.12    1987.14    -0.15
 17   1.9359  92676.83    -0.11    1987.21    -0.03
 18   1.9360  92677.05     0.13    1987.18    -0.00
 19   1.9988  91021.97    -0.30    1979.95     0.10
 20   1.9988  91018.50     0.13    1979.50    -0.31
 21   1.9989  91016.38    -0.05    1979.83     0.04
 22   2.0317  88888.31     0.20    1995.40    -0.04
 23   2.0317  88885.44    -0.00    1995.23    -0.21
 24   2.0317  88882.71    -0.06    1995.59     0.15
 25   2.1544  77149.91    -0.03    2186.38     0.19
 26   2.1545  77147.03     0.04    2186.34     0.09
 27   2.1545  77144.11     0.06    2186.33     0.04
 28   2.1545  77141.07    -0.03    2186.55     0.22

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BG518    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        14.585    14.587    14.584
ecceobj         0.298     0.298     0.298
incobj          1.815     1.815     1.815
qmin            9.861    10.028     9.903
qmax           21.449    20.940    30.549
amean          15.097    14.970    17.145
amin           14.585    14.587    14.000
amax           15.715    15.552    20.516
emean           0.337     0.322     0.392
emin            0.298     0.298     0.293
emax            0.365     0.346     0.489
imean           1.962     2.379     1.844
imin            1.483     2.201     1.344
imax            2.714     2.714     2.714
excite_mean     0.339     0.324     0.393
fracstop        0.000     0.000     0.001
cjmean          3.329     3.345     3.171

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        49.3      31.2     116.2
kozaiamp         32.9      17.0      78.9